Conventional Deterrence of Nuclear Use

Some suggest that conventional deterrence is weaker than nuclear deterrence. But conventional forces may come to assume a larger role in deterring limited nuclear use. The article presents the results of individual, scenario-based “tabletop interviews” with former senior U.S. officials who might plausibly have been consulted on a decision about how to deter a North Korean nuclear attack. The results demonstrate that in some cases, U.S. officials are likely to prefer conventional options to avoid the costs, risks, and uncertainty of nuclear threats.