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The paradox of “peace without peace, war without war” underscores Georgia’s dangerous path as its government suspends talks for European Union membership, writes Natia Gamkrelidze.
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Natia Gamkrelidze
1. The Government of Georgia’s recent suspension of EU membership talks until 2028, coupled with its violent crackdown on peaceful protesters in Tbilisi, has plunged the country into an existential crisis.
2. Georgia’s resilience and commitment to its Western trajectory remain steadfast, but this resilience must be matched by greater engagement from European Union and NATO.
3. Russia is actively exploiting Georgia’s internal divisions and frustrations through targeted disinformation campaigns, aiming to destabilize the country and erode its pro-European orientation.
Georgia, a nation nestled in Eastern Europe, has always stood at the crossroads of cultures while remaining firmly oriented toward the West. Its commitment to European and Euro-Atlantic integration is not merely aspirational but enshrined in its Constitution. Article 78 of the Georgian Constitution obliges all constitutional bodies to "take all measures" necessary for the country’s full integration into the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
This foundational principle reflects the Georgian people’s overwhelming desire for closer ties with the West and underscores the strategic importance of these aspirations. Despite its geographic proximity to Asia, Georgia’s historical, cultural, and political aspirations have consistently aligned with Europe. The Government of Georgia’s recent suspension of EU membership talks until 2028, coupled with its violent crackdown on peaceful protesters in Tbilisi, has plunged the country into an existential crisis. This decision marks not only a betrayal of the will of the Georgian people—who overwhelmingly favor European integration—but also a deliberate attempt to consolidate power and stifle dissent, undermining people’s genuine democratic aspirations.
For centuries, Georgia has endured occupation and aggression from the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and now the Russian Federation. This unrelenting pattern of subjugation has forged a national psyche defined by a relentless quest for sovereignty, democracy, and integration with the West. Yet now, as the government suspends talks for European Union (EU) membership, the paradox of “peace without peace, war without war” underscores Georgia’s dangerous path.
The Russian Empire’s Imperial ambitions: Georgia’s modern struggles with Russia began in the early 19th century when the Russian Empire annexed the Kingdom of Kartli-Kakheti in 1801, abolishing its centuries-old monarchy. What began as promises of protection soon turned into colonization. Georgian nobility was stripped of power, the Georgian Orthodox Church was subordinated to Russian authority, and resistance movements were brutally suppressed.
The Soviet Union: Subjugation Under the Guise of Communism: Georgia briefly regained independence in 1918, becoming the Democratic Republic of Georgia. However, this freedom was short-lived. In 1921, Soviet Red Army invaded and forcibly incorporated Georgia into the Soviet Union. Over the next seven decades, Stalinist purges decimated Georgia’s intellectual and political elite, and policies of Russification sought to suppress the Georgian language and culture. Despite these oppressions, Georgia’s sense of identity endured. Anti-Soviet demonstrations in 1956 and 1989, the latter ending in the infamous Tbilisi Massacre, exemplified the nation’s enduring desire for freedom. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Georgia declared its sovereignty once again, but the scars of decades-long occupation ran deep.
The Russian Federation: New Tactics, Same Aggression: Post-Soviet Russia has systematically sought to weaken Georgia’s independence, using both overt military force and covert tactics. The 1992–1993 Abkhazia War—often overlooked by the international community—was the first major post-Soviet war where Russia’s role as an aggressor was clear. Moscow supported separatists with arms and military personnel, enabling a brutal war that resulted in the ethnic cleansing of over 250,000 Georgians. Entire communities were uprooted, homes destroyed, and cultural heritage erased. Though less publicized than the Russo-Georgian War of 2008, the Abkhazia conflict remains central to Georgia’s struggle for sovereignty. In 2008, Russia escalated its aggression, recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states—a blatant violation of Georgia’s territorial integrity.
Today, 20 percent of Georgia’s territory remains under Russian occupation, a stark reminder of Moscow’s unchecked aggression and its long-standing strategy to undermine Georgian sovereignty. Since then, Russia has pursued creeping occupation, erecting razor wire fences that slowly encroach on Georgian land. These acts displace communities, destabilize livelihoods, and deepen fears of further annexation. Russian military bases in these occupied regions function as outposts for Moscow’s influence, perpetuating a strategy of destabilization that aims to keep Georgia within its orbit. This modern imperialism is compounded by disinformation campaigns that seek to erode Georgia’s Western orientation and sow division among its people.
Despite centuries of aggression, Georgia has always seen itself as part of Europe. Its Christian heritage, dating back to the 4th century, aligns it with the traditions of Western civilization. Historically, Georgia stood as a bastion of Western civilization and culture, defending against Eastern invaders as early as the Middle Ages. Georgian contributions to Western civilization include the establishment of philosophical schools, participation in the Crusades, and the construction of early Christian churches, which played a key role in evangelization.
Over the centuries, Georgian kings and intellectuals sought alliances with European powers, from Byzantium to Rome to modern Western states. In more recent history, Georgia’s pro-European and pro-NATO policies have reflected the will of a population that overwhelmingly supports integration with the West. The EU and NATO symbolize more than just security—they represent a commitment to democracy, human rights, and economic modernization. These values are deeply ingrained in Georgia’s identity and aspirations.
Yet, alongside these aspirations lies a deep sense of frustration among Georgians, who feel that despite their country’s significant contributions to Western civilization and steadfast support for NATO missions and European partnerships, Europe and NATO have not fully recognized or reciprocated these efforts. This sentiment has created a vulnerability that Russia is actively exploiting through targeted disinformation campaigns and propaganda. By amplifying Georgian frustrations with the West, Russia seeks to sow division, undermine trust in Western institutions, and erode Georgia’s pro-European orientation. These efforts are part of a broader strategy by Vladimir Putin’s regime to destabilize democratic societies, leveraging disinformation as a tool for global chaos. In the face of such tactics, Georgia’s resilience and commitment to its Western trajectory remain steadfast. However, this resilience must be matched by greater engagement from Europe and NATO, lest frustration turn into disillusionment and open further opportunities for Russian influence.
The government’s decision to suspend European Union (EU) membership talks until 2028 has sparked widespread protests, plunging Georgia into a profound identity crisis. For many Georgians, this move represents not just a political setback but a betrayal of the nation’s historical aspiration to integrate with the West. Protesters, waving EU and Georgian flags, have filled the streets of Tbilisi and other cities, decrying the government’s actions as a capitulation to Russian influence disguised as neutrality. The demonstrations have drawn tens of thousands of Georgians from across the country, united by a shared anger and frustration with their government’s direction. The atmosphere is charged with determination, as citizens see this moment as critical to safeguarding Georgia’s future as a democratic, European nation. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s framing of the suspension — of EU talks until 2028 — as resistance to “Western manipulation” has failed to resonate, with critics seeing it instead as a step toward authoritarianism and away from the democratic ideals the EU symbolizes.
The government’s violent response to peaceful protests—including the use of tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets—reveal an alarming authoritarian drift and a deliberate escalation to consolidate control. Instead of engaging with citizens’ demands for accountability, the ruling elite has opted for repression, further alienating the population and deepening fears of regression. Tear gas and water cannons have replaced dialogue, while rhetoric about “Western manipulation” has been weaponized to justify policies that align Georgia closer to Moscow. These actions reflect a leadership increasingly out of touch with the democratic will of its people.
Despite the heavy-handed crackdown, the protests have only grown in size and intensity, with demonstrators resolute in their demands for accountability and change. The scale and diversity of the protests, which include young activists waving EU flags alongside older generations who recall the repression of the Soviet era, reflect a united population unwilling to abandon their European future. The Georgian people remain resolute in defending their democracy, seeing this struggle as a defining moment in the nation’s history.
Georgia’s geopolitical predicament embodies the paradox of peace without peace. While the country avoids full-scale war, Russia’s creeping occupation continues unabated. The occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is not just a historical fact but an ongoing reality, with Russian troops stationed mere miles from Tbilisi.
At the same time, Georgia endures a war without war. Political instability, attacks on democratic institutions, and a growing reliance on authoritarian tactics threaten to undo decades of progress. This internal battle, fought not with weapons but with policies, may pose the gravest threat yet to Georgia’s sovereignty. This authoritarian drift risks isolating Georgia from its Western allies, destabilizing its economy, and weakening public trust in democratic institutions—threats that could take decades to repair.
The West cannot afford to overlook Georgia’s plight. For years, Georgia has stood as a loyal ally of Europe and NATO, embodying the values of democracy and sovereignty even as it faced existential threats. To abandon Georgia now is to risk delivering it into Moscow’s hands—a decision that would not only undermine Georgia’s future but also weaken the credibility of Western alliances. Supporting Georgia with real engagement and involvement is not just a moral imperative; it is a strategic necessity.
Georgia’s history is a testament to its resilience in the face of occupation and aggression. From the annexation by the Russian Empire to the Soviet Union’s brutal suppression and the Russian Federation’s ongoing provocations, Georgia has consistently fought to assert its independence and Western identity. The Georgian government’s decision to suspend EU membership talks and its violent suppression of dissent risk undoing decades of progress. These actions betray the democratic aspirations of the Georgian people, aligning the country with the authoritarianism it has fought against for centuries. If this path continues, it will mark not only a betrayal of Georgia’s past but a forfeiture of its future. Will the nation remain steadfast in its pursuit of democracy and European integration, or will it falter under the weight of external and internal pressures?
In this paradox of 'peace without peace and war without war,' Georgia’s fight transcends its borders. It is a battle for the soul of a nation and a warning for the world. The choices made today will determine whether Georgia remains a beacon of resilience and democracy or succumbs to the pressures of authoritarianism and occupation. For its people, allies, and government, the stakes could not be higher.
Statements and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, the Harvard Kennedy School, or the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
Gamkrelidze, Natia. “Peace Without Peace, War Without War.” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, December 2, 2024
