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Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine

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Published: Winter 2024/25

Author
Barry Posen

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A damaged apartment building is seen after a Russian guided aircraft bomb attack in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025.
A damaged apartment building is seen after a Russian guided aircraft bomb attack in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025.

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine matches the logic of preventive war, when states fear the consequences of a shifting balance of military power and strike to forestall it. This essay argues that Vladimir Putin likely viewed Russia’s strategic situation through a preventive war frame. Increasing U.S. and NATO military cooperation with Ukraine likely convinced Putin that he did not have much time to forestall Ukraine’s NATO membership, which would shift the balance of power against Russia.

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Recommended citation

Barry R. Posen, "Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine," International Security, Vol. 49, No. 3 (Winter 2024/25), pp. 7–49, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00501.