Articles

Many states with young populations are growing old fast. If states with older populations engage in violent conflict less frequently than states with large numbers of young people, the implications for the international order could be significant. 

Claims that drones will soon remake warfare or international politics are unwarranted. Although almost a dozen states now possess armed drones, and more are racing to acquire them, they will not play a decisive role in interstate conflicts. Drones will rarely be “winning weapons,” because they are vulnerable to air defenses. States will, however, continue to use drones against terrorists and domestic opponents.

Do great powers balance against each other, as neorealist theory predicts? Over the past two centuries, great powers have typically avoided external balancing via alliance formation, but they have consistently engaged in internal balancing by arming and imitating the military advances of their rivals.

Recent scholarship points to a drop in battle deaths over the past several centuries and suggests that war is declining. Improved medical care, however, has made battle wounds more survivable. War has become less fatal, but not necessarily less frequent.

Why did the great powers of Europe adapt to the so-called military revolution of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries while the Ottoman Empire failed to do so? This puzzle is best explained by two factors: civil-military relations and historical timing. The Ottoman standing army was able to block reforms that it believed challenged its interests. Absent a similar challenge, European rulers motivated officers and military entrepreneurs to participate in military reforms.

Cyberwar has been described as a revolution in military affairs capable of overturning the prevailing world order. By itself, however, cyberwar can achieve neither conquest nor, in most cases, coercion. Conflict over the internet is much more likely to serve as an adjunct to, rather than a substitute for, existing modes of terrestrial force, and to augment the advantages of status quo powers rather than threatening existing political hierarchies.