Middle East & North Africa

"...Iran's turn toward China and Russia leave the United States with less leverage for future negotiations on any issue, making it less and less likely for Iran to agree to cooperate with the United States or its allies. Thus, it is crucial to rethink these policies and come up with a more feasible plan."

Ayman Khalil asked whether the effort to create a WMD-free zone in the Middle East is dead. Martin's answer is this: The effort will continue, but the opportunity presented by the 2010 Review Conference for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) may be slipping out of reach.

"The weakening of the EU's role as an independent and mediatory player in the nuclear talks, however, beyond economic losses, could bring negative strategic and political consequences for the EU's status in the entire Middle East, which could in turn damage the region's interests. The new economic sanctions will preclude the opportunity of investment by the EU in Iran's gas and oil sectors, thus decreasing trade and commerce between the two—a shift of policy that provoked a sharp rise in China's activities in those sectors."

"...[T]he real solution is for Tehran and Washington to opt for direct diplomacy over the nuclear issue....The Americans too must not overlook the delicate point that if they voluntarily promote the role of China in Iran's nuclear and strategic programs, they would somehow help develop Beijing's strategic role....it would be a strategic blunder for the US to let China get involved in the political and strategic issues of the Middle East."

Vipin Narang, a research fellow with International Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom, discusses nuclear security and terrorism.

"...China’s fast-growing economy and its extensive demand for Iran’s energy sources have reinforced Iran’s inclination to advance further economic and political-strategic cooperation with China. Today, one of Iran’s strategic goals is to bind its energy-rich resources to the South-Asia region via the Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline (IPI), extending the pipeline to China’s markets in future years."

"Set against the probable weakness of the threatened sanctions is the fact that in Iran’s domestic politics, abandonment of the challenged aspects of the nuclear program would be seen as an intolerable and unforgivable capitulation to Washington’s pressure and manipulations."