"Black Gold" and Blackmail: The Coercive Potential of Oil

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Is oil a useful tool for international political coercion? Could a country blackmail its enemies by threatening to cut off access to oil? From a popular perspective, many argue that oil has special coercive potential because of its ability to inflict economic pain on a society. The conventional academic wisdom, by contrast, contends that oil offers little to no leverage because the global nature of the oil market makes it very difficult to deprive an adversary of petroleum. This view is clearly informed by the example of the 1973 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) embargo and mainly seeks to demonstrate that such an event is unlikely to happen again. Both the popular and academic perspectives are incomplete because they overlook the special military importance of oil and fail to seriously consider the possibility that international petroleum trade could be cut off by using force. This seminar will discuss the indispensible role oil plays in winning wars, and resultantly, the coercive leverage enjoyed by an adversary that can threaten to disrupt the flow of oil in wartime. Yet, this raises another provocative question for discussion. If "black gold" can be used to blackmail, why are cases of oil coercion so rare?

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.