The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”
As part of the Elbe Group Initiative at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, on October 23rd 2019 members of the Center's Intelligence and Cyber Projects met with representatives from Russia to identify and discuss mechanisms to avoid the worst potential consequences of offensive cyber activity -- strategic de-stabilization of global financial systems, actions that lead to kinetic escalation, disruptions of nuclear command and control systems, and threats to critical infrastructure.
In this seminar, Intelligence Project Director Paul Kolbe, Cyber Project Executive Director Lauren Zabierek, former Defense Attache to Russia BG (ret) Kevin Ryan, and former CIA Chief of Counterterrorism Robert Dannenberg will brief the audience on the key insights and takeaways from the discussion.
The briefing will take place on Wednesday October 30th from 11:45am-1:00pm in CyberHQ (One Brattle 470). Lunch will be provided.
2019 American Elbe Dialogue Participants:
Paul Kolbe, Retired CIA, Director of the Intelligence Project, Belfer Center
Robert Dannenberg, Retired CIA, former Head Security Goldman Sachs
Lauren Zabierek, Executive Director Cyber Project, Belfer Center
Brigadier General Kevin Ryan USA (ret), Former Defense Attaché to Moscow
2019 Russian Elbe Dialouge Participants:
Gen-Col Boris Miroshnikov, Former Ministry of Internal Affairs, Former FSB
Vladimir Budzko, Deputy Director, Institute Of Information Problems
Andrei Chakheev, Director of Information Security Sberbank International Operations
Victor Kulikov, Executive Director Russian Elbe Group
The purpose of the “Elbe Group” is to maintain an open and continuous channel of communication on sensitive issues of US-Russian relations.
