Climate Change Technology R&D Portfolio Analysis under Uncertainty
The goal of the talk is to share research insights into the optimal investment into technology R&D as a response to climate change.
The goal of the talk is to share research insights into the optimal investment into technology R&D as a response to climate change.
The goal of the talk is to share research insights into the optimal investment into technology R&D as a response to climate change. Baker will start the talk by showing the importance of explicitly including uncertainty in both climate damages and in the returns to R&D. She then will describe the results of a series of expert elicitations we have performed, on the efficacy of US government R&D into Carbon Capture, Nuclear, Solar PV, and Batteries for vehicles. She will illustrate how these different technology R&D programs will affect the Marginal Cost of Abatement, if successful. Finally, she will provide some initial results from a simple two-stage Mixed Integer Non-linear stochastic R&D portfolio model, showing how the optimal portfolio is impacted by uncertainty in climate change damages.