Divisions at Home, Divisions Abroad? How Domestic Political Conditions Shape Foreign Perceptions of U.S. Nuclear Credibility

How will the intensifying political dysfunction in the United States affect Washington's credibility in the nuclear domain? A rich body of literature examines the degree to which domestic political divisions inhibit effective policymaking. However, this literature has largely siloed foreign policy, viewing it as insulated from many of the troubles of domestic politics. Yet in the nuclear security domain, where the United States must maintain challenging extended deterrence commitments, domestic politics increasingly has destabilizing potential. Drawing on multi-method evidence, this project 1) examines growing divisions on nuclear beliefs in the United States, and 2) assesses how these divisions affect perceptions of U.S. nuclear credibility. This study has important implications for our understanding of how the domestic political environment shapes America's international leadership in nuclear politics.