The Nuclear Tetraplex: How Strategic Chain Reactions Are Reshaping the India–Pakistan Deterrence Equation

Speaker: Rabia Akhtar, Visiting Scholar, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

In an increasingly interconnected strategic environment, regional nuclear stability can no longer be analyzed in isolation. This seminar introduces the concept of the nuclear tetraplex—a layered framework tracing how U.S.–China great power rivalry generates strategic chain reactions that cascade through India and culminate in Pakistan.

As South Asia becomes the final pressure point of upstream shocks—from ballistic missile defense and MIRVs to tactical nuclear weapons and crisis signaling—this discussion explores how second-order effects are distorting deterrence logics, compressing decision timelines, and eroding the thin margins of stability in the Indo-Pak dyad. 

Join the discussion to unpack how emerging technologies, doctrinal entanglements, and global rivalries are reshaping the region’s nuclear landscape—and to debate whether South Asia remains a reactive recipient or a strategic innovator in its own right.

Admittance is on a first come–first served basis.  Tea and Coffee Provided.