Quo Vadis, Russian Deterrence? Strategic Culture and Coercion Innovations

This article traces the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the evolution of the Russian approach to coercion strategy. It offers a framework for examining the strategy of coercion and military innovation outside the Western intellectual tradition. Building on evidence from Russian primary sources and Russian strategic culture, it hypothesizes about the major trends in Russian deterrence strategy. One finding is that Russia’s main priorities include developing a coercion strategy for a non-nuclear near-peer competitor.