Prospects for Golden Dome

The apparent success of Israel’s Iron Dome in intercepting Iranian missiles inspired President Trump to issue an Executive Order calling for the deployment within three years of a “Golden Dome” defense of the U.S. population.  Iron Dome defends a small area against medium-range missiles armed with conventional warheads and no countermeasures.  This is completely different from the challenge of defending the United States against long-range Russian and Chinese missiles carrying nuclear warheads and sophisticated decoys and countermeasures.  Most of Golden Dome’s major components already exist or have been under development for years, and have well-documented shortcomings and vulnerabilities.  The new element is a constellation of space-based interceptors.  Because the interceptors would orbit the Earth, more than a thousand are needed to have one in position to take one shot at one missile.  Russia and China can overwhelm the system by building missiles at much lower cost; use space mines or nuclear weapons to punch holes in the constellation; or develop boosters that burn out before they could be intercepted.  Golden Dome would be extremely expensive and provide little protection while fueling competition with Russia and China, straining political relations, and creating incentives for escalation in a crisis or war.