Self fulfilling prophecies? How Ideas of Changing Warfare Shape Policymaking

This presentation examines how contested concepts about the changing character of warfare shape policymaking, using hybrid warfare as its main case. It asks why concepts that are often criticised for being vague, analytically weak, or for describing “nothing new” can nevertheless become influential guides to policy. Tracing the evolution of hybrid warfare before and after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the presentation explores how the concept has been used to define threats, organise policy responses, mobilise institutions and resources, and shape perceptions of adversaries. It argues that the significance of such concepts lies not only in their explanatory value, but also in their political and institutional effects. The presentation then considers whether similar dynamics can be observed in emerging concepts such as cognitive warfare, and what this means for the development and evaluation of ideas about changing warfare.