Sino-Japanese Crisis (In)Stability in the East China Sea

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Since September 2012, frictions between Beijing and Tokyo over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea have become unprecedentedly unstable. Both China's military and paramilitary activity in the surrounding waters and airspace and Japan's fighter jet scrambles have reached all-time highs. Recent public opinion polls in both countries record mutual antipathy at the highest level since leaders normalized bilateral diplomatic ties in the 1970s.

Under such volatile conditions, even an accident stemming from a low-level encounter could quickly escalate into a major crisis between the world's second- and third-largest economies. This seminar will examine the strengths and weaknesses of China's and Japan's crisis management mechanisms and the implications of nascent national security councils in both countries for crisis (in)stability in the East China Sea. It will also examine the prospects for, and obstacles to, more effective crisis management in both countries.

Beyond its contemporary policy relevance, the discussion will also engage issues with important implications for Chinese and Japanese foreign policy decision-making and domestic political reforms, civil-military relations, and U.S. relations with both countries.

Co-sponsored by the International Security Program and the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies