To compete and thrive in the 21st century, democracies, and the United States in particular, must develop new national security and economic strategies that address the geopolitics of information. In the 20th century, market capitalist democracies geared infrastructure, energy, trade, and even social policy to protect and advance that era’s key source of power—manufacturing. In this century, democracies must better account for information geopolitics across all dimensions of domestic policy and national strategy.
Recent years have seen an increase in the number of "arms denial" attempts, where the acquisition of new capabilities by a given country or non-state actor has been obstructed using a variety of non-cooperative tools that are short of war. Examples include shipment interdictions on the high seas, limited military strikes, and cyber attacks. What are the root causes of this increase? What can be expected in the future? To address these questions, this research develops a formal model exploring the strategic interactions resulting from arms denial and derives theoretical and policy-oriented implications for arms races, conflict management, and regional stability.
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