Middle Powers
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Principal Investigator
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Principal Investigator
About the Project on Middle Powers
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, with the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, is conducting a project to examine how several important countries are navigating a shifting world order substantially marked by U.S.-China competition, and the implications of their choices.
This project stems from a recognition that one of the defining features of this era is the prominence and influence of the countries often called “middle powers.” This diverse group of countries are geographically, strategically, economically, or geopolitically important and cannot be ignored by either the United States or China, but are seeking to pursue their interests—and geopolitical influence overall—without getting trampled in the U.S.-China competition.
The project will seek to inquire where middle powers have sufficient overlapping interests and are able to exert their collective weight to sway the evolving geopolitical order towards cooperation and greater stability, or the opposite. Do middle powers have distinctive approaches toward particular policy areas, such as technology, energy and climate policy, international finance, and security and defense, among other critical areas that will influence global efforts to seize opportunities or tackle challenges in these domains? Are there issues of critical importance where middle power collaboration can create incentives to dampen the overall temperature of U.S.-China competition? What bearing would middle power projection have on American and Chinese policies and strategies to deal with each other and with these middle powers?
The Middle Powers Project will adopt both a country-specific and a cross-cutting thematic perspective. Project outputs will be published in diverse formats, with intensive engagement with policymakers and other interested audiences, beginning in 2025.
Origins and Aspirations
Moeed Yusuf, Belfer Center Senior Fellow and part of the project's leadership, explains how the project came to be.
Brazil
Brazil, with a mighty geography and population, seeks to pursue its global ambitions amid an uneven economic trajectory, only modest influence in its region, a massive trade relationship with China, and a mixed view of U.S. leadership.
Case Study Author: Oliver Stuenkel, Associate Professor at the School of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas and Belfer Center Visiting Scholar
Egypt
A geographic hub and longstanding center of influence in the Middle East and North Africa, Egypt seeks to intensify its ties with China while maintaining its core U.S. security partnership in a volatile region.
Case Study Author: Karim Haggag, Professor of Practice at the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the American University in Cairo
India
India has the population, potential, and ambitions of a great power and a history of distance from the United States but also significant tension with China; its policy choices stand to be among the most consequential factors in shaping the international order.
Case Study Author: C. Raja Mohan, Non-Resident Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and Visiting Research Professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies of the National University of Singapore
Indonesia
A large, populous, and richly endowed pillar of Southeast Asia, Indonesia faces high stakes in an intense U.S.-China competition over technology, natural resources, and the geopolitical future of the Asia-Pacific region.
Case Study Authors: Muhamad Chatib Basri, Former Minister of Finance of Indonesia and former Chairman of the Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board, and Evan Laksmana, Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia Military Modernization at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan, the largest economy and most ambitious geopolitical actor in Central Asia, pursues a multi-vector foreign policy that aims to balance historical ties with Russia, the gravitational pull of China, and the attraction of the United States.
Case Study Author: Nargis Kassenova, Senior Fellow and Director of the Program on Central Asia at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University
Nigeria
Nigeria, rich in natural resources and projected to become the world's third-most-populous country, aspires to cement its position as a leading actor in Africa, across the Global South, and beyond.
Case Study Author: John Kayode Fayemi, Visiting Professor at the African Leadership Centre at King’s College London and former Governor of Ekiti State and Nigerian Minister of Mines and Steel Development
Pakistan
Pakistan, a nuclear power with a history of close partnership with both the United States and China, combines geographic and strategic importance with persistent economic uncertainty.
Case Study Author: Moeed Yusuf, Vice Chancellor of Beaconhouse National University and Belfer Center Senior Fellow
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia, one of the world's leading oil producers and a longtime U.S. security partner in the Middle East, seeks to diversify its economy as it navigates the complex geopolitics of its region and the world.
Case Study Author: Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University
Singapore
Singapore, a prosperous and open economy sitting astride vital sea lanes, has long experience balancing relations with the United States and China and occupies a central position amid today's geopolitical shifts.
Case Study Author: Joseph Liow, Dean of the College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences and Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics at Nanyang Technological University
South Africa
A top economy and democratic pillar of its continent, South Africa seeks to capitalize on trade opportunities with both China and the West as it pursues influence in African peace and security and in global forums.
Case Study Author: Anthoni van Nieuwkerk, Professor in International and Diplomacy Studies at the Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs of the University of South Africa
Turkey
Turkey occupies a vital geopolitical position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East--and as a NATO member that nonetheless seeks autonomy from its Western allies.
Case Study Author: Senem Aydin-Düzgit, Professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at Sabanci University and Pierre Keller Visiting Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School
United Arab Emirates
The UAE is a geographically small but ambitious country whose wealth and strategic position have propelled it to influence in regional and international security, technology, and more.
Case Study Author: Ebtesam Alketbi, President and Founder of the Emirates Policy Center
Vietnam
Vietnam, a fast-growing economy at the heart of Southeast Asia, is pursuing its ambitions for prosperity and geopolitical stature against a complex history with both the United States and China.
Case Study Authors: Vu Thanh Tu Anh, Dean of the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management at Fulbright University Vietnam, and Huynh Trung Dung, Lead Faculty for Public Policy at the YSEALI Academy of Fulbright University Vietnam