While I was a senior official in the Pakistan government from 2019 to 2022, I observed a recurring concern across the globe about the intensifying U.S.-China competition. Many of my counterparts from certain economically or geographically important nations knew they were too important for either Washington or Beijing to overlook but were determined to avoid aligning with one side in the growing competition. These are the so-called “Middle Powers.” These nations face increasing pressure from both the United States and China, who are eager to sway them on side, but without a clear strategy for how to respond.
Despite the significant challenges posed by this dynamic, it became clear that none of these Middle Powers had invested much time in developing strategies for working together. While there was consensus that cooperation could offer a way to maintain multi-aligned stances and reduce geopolitical tensions, few countries had taken concrete steps toward achieving this. Many leaders recognized the potential benefits, but were unsure how to actualize a collaborative relationship among themselves, especially given the contention that exists among these states. At the same time, leaders in Washington and Beijing, too, are keenly interested in steering their relations with Middle Powers and in how those countries will orient themselves in a changing world.
The issue presents a complex and urgent policy challenge—one that holds the potential to reshape how the world grapples with global issues and, perhaps, to reduce the intensity of great power competition. The Middle Power lens offers a fresh perspective on how countries might navigate today’s geopolitical landscape, but it remains an uncharted area of research. This struck me as the best kind of question: highly relevant to the top concerns of policymakers around the world, but with no clear answers yet in sight.
This realization became a project now jointly led by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation. The project will mobilize experts from Harvard University and across the Middle Powers to explore these questions in depth, with the potential for significant policy implications. Launched in September 2024, the initiative has already received a highly positive response. Country case studies are underway, with analysis of cross-cutting themes such as energy and climate, technology, and trade and investment also planned.
We also have the privilege of engaging with Harvard Kennedy School students in this work. There is truly no better place than HKS for such a project, given the highly international makeup of the school’s students, the wide range of expertise and experience among both students and faculty members, and the school’s focus on important, policy-relevant problems. Ultimately, we plan to produce a wide variety of outputs, including published work, online features, videos, and targeted engagement with policymakers in the United States, China, and Middle Powers themselves. Our aspiration is to provide fresh insights on a set of questions that could not be more consequential for the shape of our world today and in the decades to come.
