Reports & Papers
BCSIA: 1996-1997 ANNUAL REPORT
6. Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
Core Staff
Graham T. Allison, Jr., Director
Fiona Hill, Associate Director
Stefan Zhurek, Assistant Director
Sergei Grigoriev, Senior Research Associate
Matthew Lantz, Research Associate
Diane Curran, Research Assistant
Elena Kostritsyna, Staff/Research Assistant
Background
The Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project (SDI) was created at the John F. Kennedy School of Government in 1990 by Graham Allison and David Hamburg, President of Carnegie Corporation of New York, to catalyze Western support for the political and economic transformation of the Soviet Union. The Project became part of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs in 1995 when Dr. Allison was appointed Director of the Center.
SDI was the first independent Western research and technical assistance project to establish itself on the ground in Moscow. It continues to actively engage Russian counterparts and encourage other Western independent and governmental actors to become involved in the post-Soviet transition. Since 1990 the Project has undertaken the following initiatives:
- Developing the basic framework for Western economic assistance to the Soviet Union and then to Russia as its successor state. This was later adapted and implemented in the successive International Monetary Fund programs for Russia.
Drawing attention to the Russo-Japanese dispute over the Northern Territories and urging a resolution facilitating substantial Japanese funding for Russian economic reform.
Promoting Western support for the drafting of a new Russian constitution and for the development of a professional and independent press.
Analyzing the phenomenon of ethno-political conflict in the former Soviet space.
Proposing a strategy for eliminating nuclear arsenals in Ukraine, Kazakstan, and Belarus.
Encouraging a reevaluation of the relationship between Russia and the former Soviet republics and promoting active Western engagement of Ukraine and other key states.
Monitoring the war in Chechnya and conflicts in the Russian North Caucasus.
Providing technical support for the development of Russian political parties and in-depth commentary on the 1995-96 series of Russian parliamentary and presidential elections.
Research and policy outreach
Research for 1996-97 has focused on three main issue areas:
I. The Pathology and Prevention of Ethno-Political Conflict, which analyzes ethnic conflict in the former Soviet Union as well as the state of, prospects for, and prevention of conflicts in the Russian Federation.
II. Russian Democratization, which focuses on party building, parliamentary behavior and party organization, and the emergence of new political elites and the development of inter-elite relationships in Russia.
III. Cooperative Russian Security, which focuses on the competing concepts of Russia among the political elite regarding the state, national interests, core sense of national security, and geopolitical role; U.S. political expectations regarding Russian foreign and national security policy; and the continuing saga of cooperative denuclearization in the former Soviet Union.
I. Pathology and Prevention of Ethno-Political Conflict in the Former Soviet Union
Building on research first begun in 1993, SDI focused on the Caucasus region of the former Soviet Union, which has become the most sensitive of Russia''s geopolitical frontiers and the site of the only violent ethno-political conflicts on the territory of the Russian Federation. SDI provided briefing material on issues in the region and established connections with the relevant policy communities in Russia, the United States, and the Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Specific initiatives described below dealt with conflict in the North Caucasus, the Russian-Chechen peace process, and broader strategic issues in the Caucasus and Caspian region.
Conflict in the North Caucasus
In July 1993 SDI produced a background report on "Ethnic Conflict in the Russian Federation and Transcaucasia"; and in 1994-95, with the assistance of Dr. Magomedkhan Magomedkhanov of the Institute of History, Archaeology, and Ethnography in Makhachkala, Dagestan, SDI conducted an in-depth study of conflict in the North Caucasus region. In August 1995 SDI published a final report from this study written by Associate Director Fiona Hill entitled Russia''s Tinderbox: Conflict in the North Caucasus and Its Implications for the Future of the Russian Federation. The report received extensive media coverage, and more than 2,000 copies have been distributed since November 1995. In addition, Russia''s Tinderbox has become the handbook to the region for analysts, including the Head of the Russia Desk at the U.S. Department of State.
The decision to launch a research project devoted exclusively to the North Caucasus was borne out by the outbreak of war between Moscow and the republic of Chechnya in December 1994. As a result of the Russia''s Tinderbox study, SDI was able to provide briefing materials for policymakers and scholars throughout the conflict.
As part of SDI''s effort to focus attention on the Russian North Caucasus, Hill participated in interviews with the Voice of America in August 1996, and The Connection (with Christopher Lydon) on WBUR Boston in October 1996. She presented a paper on Chechnya and the war''s impact on Russian democratization at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies in November 1996. Hill also published a number of articles worldwide, including: "Dilemmas of Democratization: The Case of Chechnya," in André Liebich, ed., Dilemmas of Democratization after Communism; "Russia''s Quagmire," in Warreport, Special Edition: "Decision Time for the Caucasus"; and "Le Caucase, zone-frontière et poudrière russe," in Joël Kotek, ed., L''Europe et ses villes-frontières.
In March 1997 Hill and SDI researchers, Diane Curran and Elena Kostritsyna published a compendium of materials, The Search for Peace in Chechnya: A Sourcebook 1994-1996, which brings together memoranda, briefings, and documents produced and collected during SDI''s research and follow-up activities on the war in Chechnya. The main items in the volume include an expanded chronology of the unfolding peace process in Chechnya and a collection of original documents obtained from Russian and Chechen sources, SDI associates, and the Russian press. The sourcebook was distributed to domestic and foreign policymakers and analysts in the spring and summer of 1997.
Chechnya and The Hague Initiative
SDI''s work on conflict in the North Caucasus culminated in a cooperative venture with the Conflict Management Group to frame a session on Chechnya at a meeting of The Hague Initiative in the Netherlands in March 1996. The session was chaired by SDI Director Graham Allison and President Mintimer Shaimiev of Tatarstan. It brought together Russian government officials and Chechen representatives— including the Russian Nationalities Minister, Vyacheslav Mikhailov— to discuss a negotiated solution to the war in Chechnya. SDI''s briefing materials set the agenda for the session, highlighted the futility of a military solution, and provided some suggestions of alternative steps for intervention. The conclusions and recommendations SDI laid out were reflected in the final declaration of the meeting''s participants, and were subsequently echoed in Moscow-Chechen peace initiatives discussed and signed by Minister Mikhailov in May and June 1996.
The accords foundered, however, in the wake of President Yeltsin''s victory in the June-July 1996 Russian presidential elections, as did the March 31-April 1, 1996 peace plan announced by President Boris Yeltsin shortly after The Hague meeting. In an April 5, 1996, op-ed in the Washington Post, "Why the Cease-fire in Chechnya Won''t Hold," Dr. Allison predicted the failure of both the peace plan initiative and the accords. Allison highlighted Moscow''s misguided policy of continuing to attempt a military solution in Chechnya, noting that only the pursuit of direct negotiations with Chechen forces could hold out the prospect of peace.
In August 1996 Alexander Lebed was appointed Secretary of the Russian Security Council and charged with bringing the war in Chechnya to an end. The appointment coincided with the seizure of Grozny, the Chechen capital, by forces opposed to Moscow, and presented an opportunity for restating the conclusions of The Hague meeting. On August 18, 1996, SDI submitted a private memorandum to Lebed, outlining the approach to the Chechnya conflict discussed at The Hague. This approach addressed the issue at the heart of the conflict— Chechnya''s ultimate political status. The Hague formula, based on SDI''s research, held out the possibility of eventual Chechen independence, while deferring actual resolution of the problem by leaving the republic in a state of deliberate ambiguity for a specific period. This would satisfy both Chechnya and Russia in the short term. The memorandum to Lebed suggested that the decision on Chechnya''s sovereignty be deferred for 10 years.
This basic idea of a period of deferred sovereignty culminating in a referendum on Chechnya''s political status was reflected in the Khasavyurt Accords that brought an end to the war on August 25, 1996. The accords stipulated that a treaty regulating relations between the Russian Federation and the Chechen republic would be reached within 5 years, that is by December 31, 2001. Prior to the signing of the accords, reports in both the Russian and Western press suggested that the negotiators had considered deferring the issue of Chechnya''s sovereignty for a period of 10 years, as outlined in SDI''s August 18 memorandum.
In May 1997 SDI and the Conflict Management Group convened a follow-up session of The Hague Initiative that focused on rebuilding relations between Russia and Chechnya in the wake of the war. The session was chaired by President Shaimiev of Tatarstan, President Ruslan Aushev of Ingushetia, and Ruud Lubbers, former Prime Minister of the Netherlands. The Russian delegation was headed by the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Boris Berezovsky, and the Chechen delegation by Vice President Vakha Arsanov. SDI''s research materials and the March 1997 sourcebook were used as the background briefings for the delegation''s multinational expert group. The Hague Initiative resulted in an agreement to set up a consultative committee to provide support and assistance to the peace process and the development of mutually beneficial relations between Russia and Chechnya.
Caucasus and the Caspian Seminar Series
In the spring of 1996, as a follow-up to the 1995 Russia''s Tinderbox report, SDI convened a seminar series on the "Caucasus and the Caspian" at BCSIA. The series, chaired by Fiona Hill, brought together faculty, students, analysts, and businesspeople from the Harvard community and the SDI network. The seminars explored strategic issues in the Caucasus and Caspian Basin, including: the war in Chechnya; the ongoing conflicts in Georgia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and North Ossetia-Ingushetia; the role of the Russian military in the region (covering issues such as the status of the North Caucasus Military District, and Russian military basing agreements in Georgia and Armenia); oil and pipeline politics in the Caspian; Russia''s relations with Turkey, Iran, and other regional powers; and U.S. interests in the region. Speakers in the series offered perspectives on developments in the Caucasus and Caspian from the viewpoint of the regional states themselves and the United States.
Perspectives from the region:
Jayhun Molla-Zade, President of the U.S.-Azerbaijan Council: "Azerbaijan and the Caspian Basin: Pipelines and Geopolitics"
Ghia Nodia, Chairman, Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy, and Development, Tbilisi: "Dynamics of State Building in Georgia"
Rusudan Gorgiladze, Chief Staff Adviser to President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia: "Georgian Geopolitics and the Conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia"
Liana Kvarchelia, Coordinator for the Center for Humanitarian Programs in Abkhazia: "The Georgia Abkhazia Conflict: View from Abkhazia"
Jirair Libaridian, Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador and Senior Adviser to the President of Armenia: "Conflicts and Prospects for Peace in the Caucasus"
Perspectives from U.S. observers in the region:
Charles Retondo, American Contract Consultant to the U.S. oil industry: "A Groundhog''s View of Baku: An Inside View of the U.S. Oil Industry in Azerbaijan"
S. Rob Sobhani, Lecturer at Georgetown University and President of Caspian Energy Consulting: "U.S., Iran, Russia, and Turkey: The Struggle for Azerbaijan"
Thomas Goltz, Award-winning Freelance Journalist in the Caucasus, "Samashki: Belief and Betrayal in a Chechen Town at War"
Perspectives from the U.S. Government:
Michael Ochs, Staff Adviser of the United States Congress Committee on Security and Cooperation in the European Commission: "Azerbaijan: Oil, Domestic Stability, and Geopolitics in the Caucasus"
Jack Carter, Senior Adviser for International Affairs at the U.S. Department of Energy: "The Great Game: The Struggle for Caspian Oil"
Joseph Presel, U.S. Special Negotiator for Nagorno-Karabak: "Nagorno-Karabakh and United States Policy in the Caucasus"
Daniel Speckhard, Special Adviser on the Newly Independent States for the U.S. Secretary of State: "The Politics of Caspian Oil"
William Courtney, U.S. Ambassador to Georgia: "Georgia and Russian Policy in the Caucasus"
Michael Ochs, Staff Adviser of the United States Congress Committee on Security and Cooperation in the European Commission: "The Armenian Presidential Elections of 1996"
Stephen Young, Director of the Office of the Caucasus, and Security Affairs of the Newly Independent States at the U.S. State Department: "US Interests in the Caucasus"
The series transcripts were edited and published in the spring and summer of 1997. In addition, Associate Director Hill produced a series of articles and gave presentations on issues related to Caspian oil and Russian foreign policy in the region. These included "Pipeline Politics, Russo-Turkish Competition and Geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean," which was first presented as a paper at an international conference on Security and Cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean in Nicosia, Cyprus, and subsequently published in the spring 1996 issue of Cyprus Review; as the feature article in Oikonomikos Tachydromos, Greece''s leading economic and political weekly periodical in September 1996; and in Andreas Theophanous and Van Coufoudakis, eds., Security and Cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean. Hill also gave a keynote address, "Russian Policy in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and the Eastern Mediterranean," at the Symposium on Contemporary Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus: Greco-Turkish Relations and the International Environment in Nicosia, Cyprus, in December 1996. In June 1997 she briefed National Security Council and State Department analysts on "Geopolitics and Oil Security in the Caspian Basin."
II. Russian Democratization
During 1996-97 SDI continued work begun in 1994 to support institution building below the state level by focusing on the role and consolidation of political parties in Russia''s emerging representative democracy. The objective of SDI''s Russian democratization strand for 1996-97 was to work directly with the leadership of the principal democratic reformist parties on party building, parliamentary behavior, and local party organization. The following initiatives resulted from this work.
Russian Political Party-Building Program
The SDI Russian Political Party-Building Program concentrated its efforts on the Russian presidential elections, hosting political activists from Russia for week-long visits. SDI Research Associate Matthew Lantz and Senior Research Associate Sergei Grigoriev directed the program. Guests discussed with American counterparts techniques of party organization, campaign strategy, volunteer recruitment, media relations, and political finance. Participants included Alexander Batanov, an independent political consultant who became scheduler for the Yeltsin campaign; Alexander Lyubimov, television personality and campaign consultant for Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze; Andrei Moshnikov, an independent Russian media consultant; and Olesya Levitskaya from VID Television. To demonstrate firsthand how the American political scene functions, SDI arranged visits to the New Hampshire campaign headquarters of the 1996 U.S. presidential primary candidates.
At the request of Alexander Batanov, in June 1996 the Political Party-Building Program brought Boston-based American political consultants Nick Mitropoulos and John Marttila— two long-standing volunteers for the Party-Building Program— to Moscow to provide advice to the Yeltsin campaign team. In July 1996, after the election, Batanov debriefed the SDI team and associates at BCSIA on the conduct of President Yeltsin''s campaign.
In May and June 1997, as a follow-up to these initiatives, the SDI Political Party-Building Program hosted two groups from the Nash Dom Rossiya Party (NDR) at Harvard. The first group was headed by Sergei Belyaev, the leader of NDR''s Duma faction. The second group included Sergei Kolesnikov, a chief political adviser to Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. In Boston and in a visit to Washington, D.C., the NDR officials discussed party activities and legislative duties with senior U.S. political party activists and Members of Congress. Similar invitations were extended to Grigory Yavlinsky, a 1996 Russian presidential candidate and leader of the Yabloko Party, and Vyacheslav Igrunov, the Deputy Chairman of the Yabloko Party. They were expected to arrive in Cambridge in September 1997.
The Kennedy School''s Second Annual Russian Duma Program
In September 1996 Ambassador Robert Blackwill, a member of the Kennedy School faculty, hosted the third annual Executive Program for Members of the Russian State Duma. As he had in 1995, Blackwill asked SDI to arrange sessions and speakers on political party organization and campaigning. At the invitation of SDI, David Wilhelm, former director of the Democratic National Committee; Chuck Campion, senior campaign aide to the Mondale and Dukakis campaigns; and Catherine "Kiki" Moore, spokesperson for the Democratic National Convention, addressed the Duma deputies. Wilhelm described the structure and function of the American political party system and fielded questions on party organization and funding. Campion and Moore described the organization of an American campaign and how campaigns devise effective strategies. Pleased with all the speakers, the Duma deputies subsequently made overtures to fly Wilhelm to Moscow to give advice on party building to individual Russian party organizations.
SDI provided each visiting Duma member an updated version of its 1995 Political Party-Building and Campaigning Handbook, SDI''s "how-to" manual compiled by Matthew Lantz prior to the Duma elections and distributed in Moscow to all major Duma factions competing in the 1995 elections. The Kennedy School''s Duma Program helped develop deeper contacts with members of the Russian Duma, especially with parties that do not normally associate themselves with American organizations. Sergei Grigoriev and Lantz held meetings with party members from across the political spectrum, including Communists and representatives from Vladimir Zhirinovsky''s ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia.
Russian Election Watch and Other Publications
A primary objective of SDI''s democratization strand is to inform Western analysts of recent developments in the Russian political scene. From June 1995 to January 1997, SDI produced Russian Election Watch, a bimonthly summary and assessment of current events affecting the Russian parliamentary, presidential, and gubernatorial elections. Russian Election Watch was distributed to more than 150 individuals in government, the media, and academia. It was made available on the SDI home page on BCSIA''s Website, and was included in "David Johnson''s Russia List," a Washington, D.C.-based email service distributed to thousands of Russia watchers in the United States and abroad.
SDI also produced monthly analytical assessments of the Russian political scene and the status of Russian democracy for distribution to the SDI network. Topics for these briefs in 1996-97 included understanding the first and second rounds of the presidential elections, and the state of the Russian union. In July 1996 Grigoriev and Lantz published an op-ed in the Boston Globe entitled "Dead Man Winning," in which they evaluated the Russian presidential election and the challenges ahead for Russia. Allison and Lantz produced a similar article for the January 1997 issue of the Harvard International Review. Allison, Grigoriev, and Lantz also gave frequent interviews on the Russian political scene to media outlets, including the Associated Press, National Public Radio, USA Today, ABC''s Nightline, and MS-NBC. In March 1997 Lantz produced The Election Watch Compendium, a sourcebook on the Russian parliamentary and presidential elections that brought together all of SDI''s assessments, briefings, and articles produced between June 1995 and January 1997.
Demokratizatsiya
During the spring of 1996, Fredo Arias-King, the founder of the journal Demokratizatsiya— a leading U.S. scholarly journal on the transition in Russia— asked SDI to become guest editor for two issues of the publication, the spring 1996 edition on the Russian parliamentary elections and the summer 1996 issue on the presidential elections. SDI identified and recruited writers to submit essays on different aspects of both elections. Authors included: John Lloyd, former Moscow Bureau Chief of the London Financial Times, writing on the likelihood of a Yeltsin victory; Tim Colton, Director of Harvard''s Davis Center for Russian Studies and Richard Rose, head of the University of Strathclyde''s New Russian Barometer, on the issue of Russian public opinion polling during the elections; Valery Solovei of Moscow''s Gorbachev Foundation on presidential campaign strategies; Gennady Gershanok from the University of Perm in Russia on the view of the elections from Russia''s regions; Sergei Kolesnikov, Chief Political Adviser to Viktor Chernomyrdin on the performance of the NDR Party; Alexei Ulyukaev, deputy to former Russian Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar, on economics and the elections; Catherine Barnes of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems on the Russian federal election law; and Ivan Ascher, a former SDI Research Assistant, on the role of the Russian media. The SDI-edited issues were distributed to more than 1,000 direct subscribers and to newsstands across the United States.
Other Initiatives under the Russian Democratization Strand
Several additional opportunities to support Russian democratization beyond our formal initiatives presented themselves in 1996-97. These included support for the Moscow School of Political Studies and involvement in a project at the Kennedy School, spearheaded by Sergei Grigoriev, to create a program for leaders emerging from Russia''s regions.
Support for the Moscow School of Political Studies
The Moscow School of Political Studies, headed by Elena Nemirovskaya, was established in 1992 to train young Russian politicians in democracy and international relations and to give them an opportunity to meet with international experts in these areas. Prior to spring 1996, the Moscow School of Political Studies'' primary relationships outside Russia had been with European institutions and partners. Acting on the advice of John Lloyd, a longtime associate of SDI, Nemirovskaya was anxious to establish links with U.S. institutions. In May 1996, and again in May 1997, Graham Allison and Fiona Hill attended the School''s annual seminar at Golitsyno outside Moscow, with Allison giving presentations to the group on U.S.-Russian relations. Allison and Hill also engaged in discussions with Nemirovskaya and seminar participants from the Russian Duma to explore cooperation and assistance in promoting the activities of the School— including providing speakers for future seminars, organizing a session at the Kennedy School, and giving advice on fundraising and other technical and logistical issues. Nemirovskaya is scheduled to visit the Kennedy School in the fall of 1997.
Russian Fellows Program
The Russian Fellows Program was initiated at the Kennedy School in 1996. The idea, proposed by Senior Research Associate Grigoriev, was based on his experiences with SDI''s work in Russia, the Project''s Russian Political Party-Building Program, and past meetings with members of the new Russian political elite. With the assistance of Fiona Hill and the support of Graham Allison, Grigoriev submitted a proposal to the Kennedy School in March 1996. After 10 months of deliberation, fact-finding missions to Moscow, and discussions with potential partners in Russia and the West, the Kennedy School approved the Russia Fellows Program, with Grigoriev as the acting Executive Director. An agreement to cosponsor a series of seminars with the NDR Party was concluded in June 1997, and the first executive seminar for professionals in the Russian regions, sponsored by the Soros Foundation, was held in Irkutsk on Lake Baikal in Russia in the summer of 1997. Until full funding is secured and the program becomes completely operational and institutionalized at the Kennedy School, SDI will continue to provide conceptual input and operational oversight to this new venture.
III. Cooperative Russian Security
SDI''s main activities in the area of cooperative Russian security focused in its ongoing "Whither Russia?" project. The goal of this project is to illuminate for the international community the ongoing debate in Russia about the country''s identity, security, and interests. The central question is: What will emerge as the dominant conception of Russian identity, Russian security, and Russian greatness? More specifically, the aim of this project is to help clarify competing images of Russia across the political spectrum; how these images are reflected in policy; the shape of the debate in specific arenas; the opinions of the political elite and the public about the debate; differences between views in the regions and those at the center; common threads in the competing images of Russia; and, based on the conclusions drawn, Russia''s fundamental geopolitical and national interests.
As part of the project, SDI continues to publish important works by leading Russian policymakers and academics addressing a set of three broad questions: Who are the Russians? What is the nature of the Russian state? and What is Russia''s mission?
In June 1997 SDI published the first three monographs from the "Whither Russia?" project: Reflections on Russia''s Past, Present, and Future by Andrei A. Kokoshin, First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation and noted academic; Will the Union Be Reborn? The Future of the Post-Soviet Region by the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, headed by Sergei Karaganov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Europe; and The National Security of Russia by General Valery Manilov, First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
In May and June 1997 Graham Allison and Fiona Hill made a planning trip to Moscow to recruit additional authors for the "Whither Russia?" project.
In addition to this project, under the rubric of Russian security, SDI organized a workshop with BCSIA''s International Security Program in June 1997 on Guidelines for Arms Control after START II. The workshop was attended by Russian arms control expert, Sergei Rogov, and three leading representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense: General Ivashov of the Russian General Staff; General Dvorkin, Adviser to the Russian Minister of Defense; and General Zolatarev, Head of Department at the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Technical Assistance Projects
To supplement its three primary areas of research, SDI conducted two major technical assistance projects in 1996-97: the U.S.-Russian Investment Symposium and the Harvard Executive Seminar for Senior Officials from Kazakstan
U.S.-Russian Investment Symposium
This initiative was designed to promote Western investment in Russia and the other former Soviet republics through a U.S.-Russian Investment Symposium on "Financial and Direct Investment Opportunities in Russia," which was held on January 9-12, 1997, at the Kennedy School of Government. SDI cosponsored the Symposium on behalf of the Kennedy School with the Conference Board, the U.S.-Russia Business Council, the Academy of the National Economy under the Russian Government, and the International Investment Union of Russia. The symposium addressed the importance of attracting international direct and equity investment in Russia, identified by President Yeltsin and Prime Minister Chernomyrdin as the single largest challenge for the Russian economy in 1996-97 and the decade ahead. Some 300 Russian leaders from government and business were joined at the Symposium by an equal number of American and other international participants.
The Symposium, the largest conference of its kind to date and the only such conference with a one-to-one Russian/Western participant ratio, was a great success. Contracts totaling $350 million were signed between Russian and Western participants. Participating governors and mayors established a Fund for Collective Investment to help Russian entrepreneurs develop Western-style investment projects and business plans to increase the likelihood of finding business partners. Currently, 21 regions have become members of the Fund. In addition, the Symposium provided a forum for policymakers in both Russia and the West to meet and discuss issues informally.
Harvard Executive Seminar for Senior Officials from Kazakstan
The second technical assistance project involved strategic planning for the government of Kazakstan. In the spring of 1997, in the wake of SDI''s successful Investment Symposium for Russia, the Kazak government approached SDI to develop and conduct an executive program on strategic planning for 50 senior Kazak government officials. In April 1997, under the leadership of Graham Allison and Robert Blackwill, SDI developed the curriculum, recruited the lecturers, and ran the first week-long Harvard Executive Seminar for Senior Officials from Kazakstan on Strategy, National Performance, and Organization at the Kennedy School. At the seminar, SDI staff assisted14 senior Kazak government officials (ministers and deputy ministers) in developing a framework for creating a strategic plan for their country.
Allison and Blackwill conducted a second week-long program in the summer of 1997, in Almaty, the capital of Kazakstan, for a larger group of officials, which also focused on strategic planning, national performance, and organization. These programs resulted in the creation of the first-ever strategic plan for Kazakstan covering general strategy, social policy, fuel and energy, political strategy, and military and strategic issues. The Kazak government is scheduled to implement the plan in the fall of 1997.
Publications
Research Reports
Antonenko, Oksana, New Russian Analytical Centers and Their Role in Political Decisionmaking, February 1996)
"The Caucasus and the Caspian: 1996-97 Seminar Series," Vols. 1 and 2 (1996, 1997)
Curran, Diane, Fiona Hill, and Elena Kostritsyna, The Search for Peace in Chechnya: A Sourcebook 1994-1996 (March 1997)
"Financial and Direct Investment Opportunities in Russia," Final Report from the U.S.-Russian Investment Symposium (March 1997)
Lantz, Matthew, Russian Election Compendium (March 1997)
Occasional Papers
Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, "Will the Union Be Reborn? The Future of the Post-Soviet Region" (June, 1997)
Kokoshin, Andrei A., "Reflection on Russia''s Past, Present, and Future" (June 1997)
Manilov, Valery, "National Security of Russia" (June 1997)
Articles and Book Chapters
Allison, Graham and Matthew Lantz, "No Holds Barred: An Analysis of Yeltsin''s Electoral Victory," Harvard International Review (Winter 1996/97), pp. 16-19
Ascher, Ivan, "The Moscow Press: Vanguard or Democracy? Demokratizatsiya, Vol. 4, No. 3 (Summer 1996)
Grigoriev, Sergei and Matthew Lantz, "Dead Man Winning," Boston Globe, July 11, 1996
Grigoriev, Sergei and Matthew Lantz, "Lessons of the 1995 State Duma Elections," Demokratizatsiya , Vol. 4, No. 2 (Spring 1996)
Hill, Fiona, "Dilemmas of Democratization: The Case of Chechnya," in André Liebich, ed., Dilemmas of Democratization: The Case of Chechnya (Geneva: Graduate School of International Studies, 1997)
Hill, Fiona, "Le Caucase, zone-frontière et poudrière russe," in Joël Kotek, ed., L''Europe et ses villes-frontières (Brussels: Editions Complexe, 1996)
Hill, Fiona, "Pipeline Politics, Russo-Turkish Competition and Geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus Review, Vol. 8, No.1 (Spring 1996) (Nicosia: Intercollege, 1997); the Financial Mirror (Cyprus), February 14-20, 1996; Oikonomikos Tachydromos, September 26, 1996 (in Greek)
Hill, Fiona, "Russia''s Quagmire," Warreport, Special Edition: "Decision Time for the Caucasus" (London) (June 1996)
Lloyd, John, "Nowhere to Turn but Yeltsin," Demokratizatsiya, Vol. 4, No. 3 (Summer 1996)
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