BCSIA Annual Report, 1980-1981: Other Program Activities

BCSIA: 1980-1981 ANNUAL REPORT
5. Other Program Activities

OTHER PROGRAM ACTIVITIES

"Technology, War, and Peace"

In the fall semester 106 students were enrolled in the course which was offered by the Center for the sixth consecutive year and cosponsored by the Office of General Education and the Kennedy School of Government. It was taught by Professor Nacht, and two CSIA graduate student teaching fellows. The subjects of the lectures were as follows:

Introduction
Development of the Atomic Bomb
The Atomic Bomb, World War II, and the Origins of the Cold War
Thermonuclear Weapons
The Baruch Plan and the Test Ban
Political-Military Implications of Nuclear Weapons
Arms Control Negotiations and Results
Strategic Forces
Holiday
Strategic Doctrine
SALT I
SALT II
Strategic Issues for the 1980s
Medium Nuclear Powers
Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear Proliferation
Midterm
Limited War in Theory and Practice
The Role of Systems Analysis
Conventional Arms
European Security
OPEN
Regional Security
The Future of Arms Control
Other Dimensions of National Security
OPEN

Working Groups

This year there were four working groups in which the CSIA Research Staff participated. These groups provided the framework for collaborative research.

The Political Instability Working Group, led by Michael Nacht, examined patterns of regime change in developing countries and the implications of these patterns for American policy. Part of the working group is attempting a statistical study to identify political, social, economic, and military indices that have been prevalent prior to regime changes in the less developed countries from 1960 through 1979. Other participants in the group developed case studies of individual regime changes and the role of American policy prior to, during and immediately after these changes. The ultimate objective of the group was to produce an analytical framework for assessing: (1) the likelihood of regime changes in specific developing countries; and (2) appropriate American policies prior to these regime changes.

The Energy and Security Working Group, chaired by David Deese, held fifteen seminars during the year, with the goal of examining a wide range of issues dealing with energy security: the physical disruption of oil supplies; the economic and political effects of rapid oil price increases; and the foreign policy costs of energy vulnerability. Specific problems that were addressed included: military threats to Persian Gulf oil supplies, the petroleum-Palestinian linkage, decision-making in OPEC, and the factors affecting Saudi Arabia''s production. With respect to the U.S. domestic situation, the group reviewed the current status of energy security planning, lessons from Iran, and the state of readiness (including military postures) to cope with short-term supply interruptions. International issues examined included Japan''s energy security problem, the barriers to a common European energy security policy, and economic and political stability problems faced by less developed countries. The culmination of the Group''s efforts was a book, published in December 1980, which provided decision-makers and the public with a clear definition of energy security and carefully considered policy alternatives.

The Theater Nuclear Forces and Arms Control Working Group, led by Paul Doty, focused this year on NATO''s Theater Nuclear Force (TNF) Modernization program and on the TNF arms control effort which is supposed to accompany it. The collection of papers produced for this group examined many aspects of the problem of nuclear weapons in Europe: the historical evolution of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces and doctrine; the nature of and rationale for NATO''s TNF modernization decision; and the prospects for and problems of TNF arms control.

The Domestic Politics and Security Policy Working Group, led by Michael Mandelbaum, met on a regular basis to review papers by individuals in the group. Essays were written on British security policy in the period leading up to World War I, on French defense policy between the two World Wars, on the origins of the Grand Strategies of states, on the behavioral tendencies of military organizations and the effects on diplomacy and war, on the breakdown of conventional deterrence in the Middle East in 1956, 1967, and 1973, as well as on the prospects for American power projection in the Persian Gulf. The latter was published as an article; the rest of these essays were chapters of books in progress.

Table of Contents:

OverviewOrganization and Personnel

Research and PublicationsSeminars Other Program Activities Related Professional Activities Former Members of the Research Staff