BCSIA Annual Report, 1980-1981: Research and Publications

BCSIA: 1980-1981 ANNUAL REPORT
3. Research and Publications

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RESEARCH AND PUBLICATIONS

The Center continued to focus research on arms control and disarmament Fitly particular emphasis on controlling the spread of nuclear weapons. Research also addressed the nuclear energy controversy in industrialized countries; decision-making in nuclear waste management issues; the international competition for energy resources and the conflicts resulting from this competition; and the prospects of regime changes in developing countries.

Research Interests

Harvey Brooks, Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy. Various aspects of Science, Technology and Public Policy: Government innovation policy; energy policy; resources and economic growth; science & technology for development; resource allocation for R&D; technology & quality of working life.

Albert Carnesale, Senior Faculty Research Associate, CSIA, and Professor of Public Policy. Primary emphasis is on issues associated with nuclear weapons. Focus this year was on ballistic missile defense, trade-offs between survivability of strategic weapons and verifiability of arms control agreements, and relationships between nuclear energy and proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Milena Charles, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA. Wrote a case study on The 1966 Coup in Ghana and is now working on a new research project: Southern Africa - Prospects for the 1980s.

E. William Colglazier, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Associate rector, Aspen Program in Science, Technology, and Humanism. Governance issues of nuclear waste management; policies for consuming countries to cope with the threat of interrupted oil supply; the role of science & technology in Third World development; and the connection between social and technological innovation and their impact on economic growth.

David Deese, Assistant to the Director, CSIA. The influence of oil on grand military strategy and war; oil and the cohesion of the Western Alliance in the 1980s; regional security and U.S. security policy in the Persian Gulf; and energy and other economic factors in political change in the Third World.

Paul Doty, Director, CSIA, and Mallinckrodt Professor of Biochemistry. The ratification of SALT II; planning and strategy for SALT III, particularly control of long-range nuclear weapons in the European theater; international scientific cooperation; nuclear power policies.

Joshua Epstein, Research Fellow, CSIA. Security issues in the Persian Gulf. Soviet foreign and national security policy with emphasis on the assessment of Soviet military capabilities.

Lars Eriksson, Research Fellow, CSIA. Great Power politics and the security of the Nordic countries, especially the question of a Nordic nuclear weapon-free zone; American defense and foreign policy issues with emphasis on Europe.

Barbara Kates-Garnick, Research Fellow, CSIA. Focus on research in energy and security issues with emphasis on consumer country collaboration and stockpiling policy.

Otto Keck, Research Fellow, CSIA. In-depth analysis of the West German fast breeder reactor program; the construction of a theoretical framework for a comparative analysis of civilian nuclear power in four major industrial countries; and an exploration of the consequences of West German dependence on Middle East oil for West Germany''s energy and security policies, and for West German-American relations.

Erwin Hackel, Research Fellow, CSIA. International politics of nuclear energy and the security of energy supplies in the Third World.

Fen Hampson, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA. The political economy of oil and gas policies in Canada and Mexico.

Christopher Jones, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA, and Research Fellow, Russian Research Center, Harvard. Theater nuclear forces; Soviet military affairs and relations with West European states.

Derek Leebaert, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Managing Editor of International Security. NATO politics and the Central Front balance; U.S.-Soviet security relationship; and public management questions involving implementation and regulation.

Michael Mandelbaum, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Associate Professor of Government. American foreign policy; international security.

Stephen M. Meyer, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA; Assistant Professor of Political Science, MIT; and Research Associate at the Center for International Studies, MIT. Soviet military studies with specific emphasis on weapons acquisition and force planning; nuclear proliferation; quantitative methods and computer applications in security studies.

Linda Miller, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA, and Professor of Political Science, Wellesley College. Politics of energy: domestic and international aspects, emphasizing relationships among advanced industrial countries, especially the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan. American/European political, economic, and military relations. U.S. policy in the Middle East, stressing oil politics and resource diplomacy.

Steven E. Miller, Research Assistant, CSIA. Strategic nuclear weapons policy and strategic arms control; issues relating to theater nuclear forces in Europe; conventional arms transfers; U.S.-Soviet relations; and European security with an emphasis on the Northern Flank.

Michael Nacht, Associate Director, CSIA, and Associate Professor of Public Policy. Nuclear weapons and U.5.-Soviet relations; the problem of regional security; political instability in developing countries; and management issues in the making of national security policy.

Joseph Nye, Professor of Government, Professor of Public Policy, and member of CSIA. Energy security and Persian Gulf oil. Developing work on the management of U.S.-Soviet relations and the role of nuclear weapons in that relationship.

Barry Posen, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA. Origins of grand strategy -- French, British, and German strategic doctrine between the World Wars; military force and security problems in southwest Asia; Israeli strategic doctrine.

T.T. Poulose, Research Fellow, CSIA. Nuclear proliferation and the Third World.

Gary Samore, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA. Persian Gulf and oil security focusing on: the politics of the royal family in Saudi Arabia, particularly with respect to Saudi oil policy and political stability; the development, organization, and strategy of the Saudi defense and security establishment; the American-Saudi "special relationship" and access to oil; and the potential role of military force in meeting "local" (i.e., domestic instability and regional conflicts) threats to oil security in the Gulf.

Jane Sharp, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA. Interaction of East-West arms control diplomacy on NATO and Warsaw Pact nuclear and non-nuclear force postures through the l96Os and 1970s; the confidence-building aspects of SALT, in particular the structure and functions of the Standing Consultative Commission; and the potential for controlling theater nuclear forces in Europe.

Raju Thomas, Research Fellow, CSIA. Indian defense policy with emphasis on the linkages and interaction between current Indian domestic politics and the strategic environment in Southern Asia; the influence of great power politics on the security policies of Asian states; the international energy crisis and Indian security; defense spending and economic development in India.

Dorothy Zinberg, Director of Seminars and Special Projects, CSIA, and Lecturer, KSG. Energy and social adaptation; international mobility of scientists and engineers.

Publications

Brooks, Harvey. "Technology, Evolution and Purpose," Daedalus, Winter 1980: Modern Technology: Problem or Opportunity? Vol. 109, No. 1 of the Proceedings of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, pp. 65-81.

______. "Science, Technology, and Material Progress," in Progress and Its Discontents, Gabriel Almond, Marvin Chodorow, and Roy Harvey Pearce, editors. American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1981.

______. "A Critique of the Concept of Appropriate Technology," in Franklin A. Long and Alexandra Oleson, editors, Appropriate Technology and Social Values -- A Critical Appraisal. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company (a subsidiary of Harper & Row, Publishers, Inc.), 1980.

______. Testimony: Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems of the National Academy of Sciences National Research Council''s Energy in Transition 1985-2010 to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources of the United States Senate, April 18, 1980. GPO Publication No. 96-110. H. Brooks'' testimony, pp. 2-32.

______. "Basic and Applied Research," in Categories of Scientific Research, papers presented at a National Science Foundation Seminar, Washington, D.C., December 8, 1979, NSF 80-28, National Science Foundation, 1980.

______. "Future Energy Alternatives in Perspective," "guest Comment" in Physics Today, September 1980, pp. 9, 92 and 94.

______. "Science Indicators and Science Policy," Scientometrics, Vol. 2, No. 5-6 (1980) 331-337.

______. "Notes on Some Issues on Technology and National Defense," Daedalus, Winter 1981: U.S. Defense Policy in the 1980s, Vol. 110, No. 1 of the Proceedings of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, pp. 129-136.

______. "Autonomy vs. Accountability of Science in the American Scene," in Science and the Polity: Ideals, Illusion, and Realities, J.R. Philip and T.J. Conlon, eds., Australian Academy of Science, Silver Jubilee Symposium, Volume I, Canberra, 1900, pp. 29-40.

______. "Advice and Dissent in White House Science" (review of Science at the White House: A Political Liability, by Edward J. Burger, Jr.), Nature, Vol. 290, April 23, 1981.

______. "Technology-related Catastrophes: Myth and Reality," in volume of essays on The End of Mankind in Western Imagination, edited by S. Friedlander, G. Ilolton, L. Marx, E. Skolnikoff. Holmes & Meter, New York, 1981.

______. "Social and Technical Innovation," in Proceedings of the Conference on "Creativity, Invention and Technology" sponsored by the Aspen Institute in Science, Technology and Humanism, and the School of Public Administration at Ohio State University, held on Nov. 7-9, 1980 at Wye, Md.

______. "Towards an Efficient Technology Policy in Advanced Countries: Criteria and Evidence," to be published in Proceedings of the Conference on "Emerging Technology: Consequences for Economic Growth, Strucutral Change, and Employment in Advanced Open Economies," to be held in Kiel, Germany, June 24-26, 1981 by the Institute fur Weltwirtschaft in cooperation with OECD, Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry.

Carnesale, Albert. "International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation." In International Energy Strategies, edited by Joy Dunkerley. Cambridge: Oelgeschlager, Gunn and Hahn, 1980, pp. 29-36.

______. "Reviving the ABM Debate." Arms Control Today 11 (April 1981):1-8.

______. "Nuclear Fission on the Road to War and Peace." A book review in Book World, The Washington Post, May 10, 1981, pp. 3-5.

Charles, Milena. The Soviet Union and Africa, The History of the Involvement. University Press of America, 1980.

______. "The Last Europeans in Africa." Harvard International Review, December 1980.

Colglazier, E. William. Editor. The Politics of Nuclear Waste. New York: Pergamon Press, 1981.

______, and S. Lundstedt, Editors. The Social Dimensions of Innovation: Creativity, Invention and Technology. New York: Pergamon Press. (Forthcoming.)

______, Al Alm, and Barbara Kates-Garnick. "Coping with Interruptions." In Energy and Security, edited by David Deese and Joseph Nye. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1981.

______, and B.M. Casper. "An Added Petroleum Reserve," New York Times, March 3, 1981.

______. "Science and Development." Harvard International Review, April-May 1981, Vol. 3, No. 7.

Deese, David, and Joseph Nye (eds.) Energy and Security. Cambridge: Ballinger, 1981.

______. "A Comparative Perspective on the Politics of Nuclear Power." In The Politics of Nuclear Waste, edited by E. William Colglazier. New York: Pergamon Press, 1981.

______, and Linda Miller. "Energy and Security in Western Europe." In Energy and Security, edited by D. Deese and J. Nye. Cambridge: Ballinger, 1981.

______. "Energy and Security in the Oil-Importing Developing Countries." In Energy and Security, op. cit.

______, Joseph Nye and Alvin Alm. "A U.S. Strategy for Energy In Energy and Security, op. cit.

______. "Energy and Security: The Western Mobilization Dilemma." (Forthcoming.)

______. "Oil and Conflict in the Third World." Fletcher Forum, Summer 1981.

______. "Energy and Security." Harvard Magazine, Winter, 1980/81.

Doty, Paul. "Einstein and International Security." To be published with Einstein and Humanism Selected Papers from the Jerusalem Einstein Centennial Symposium. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. (Forthcoming.)

______. "The Doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction: Relevance for the 1980s." To be published in a special report, "U.S. Strategic Doctrine for the 1980s" with selected papers presented at the Conference on U.S. Strategic Doctrine for the 1980s under the auspices of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. (Forthcoming.)

Epstein, Joshua. "Soviet Vulnerabilities in Iran and the RDF Deterrent," International Security, Fall 1981.

______, Benjamin Lambeth, Rose Gottemoeller, James Hayes, and Thomas Wolfe. The Soviet Armed Forces: A Projection of Missions to the Year 2000. Forthcoming Rand Report.______. (PENDING? Political Impediments to Military Effectiveness: The Case of Soviet Frontal Aviation. MIT, 1980.Eriksson, Lars. "NATO and the Crises of 1980." Paper issued in December by the Swedish Institute for Foreign Affairs. (English Translation.)Hampson, Fen. "Canadian Energy Security." In Energy and Security, edited by David Deese and Joseph Nye. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1981.
______. "The Cuban Revolution: Indicators, Causes and Consequences," prepared for Political Stability Working Group (Forthcoming in edited volume).______. "Energy Security Outside the Persian Gulf: The Oil Policies of the LDC Non-Persian Gulf Producers." Prepared for Energy Security Working Group (Forthcoming in edited volume).______. "Canadian Energy Security and North American Cooperation: A Short Term View." Presented at the University Consortium for Research on North America Conference on "Canada and Mexico: The Comparative and Joint Politics of Energy." (Forthcoming in edited volume.)Jones, Christopher. "The Warsaw Pact: Exercise~~and Interventions," Armed Forces and Society, November 1980.Kates-Garnick'' Barbara, A. Alm, and E. William Colglazier. "Coping with Interruptions." In Energy and Security, edited by D. Deese and J. Nye. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1981.______. "Oil and Collective Security Through the TEA: Comparative Stockpiling." (Forthcoming.)Keck, Otto. "Government Policy and Technical Choice in the West German Reactor Programme." Research Policy 9 (1980), 302-356.______. "The West German Fast Breeder Programme: A Case Study in Governmental Decision Making." Energy Policy 8 (1980),______. Policymaking in a Nuclear Program: The Case of the West German Fast Breeder Reactor. Lexington, MA and Toronto: Lexington Books, 1981.______, and W.D. Webler, Editors. Technischer und sozialer Wandel: Eine Herausforderung an die Sozialwissenschaften (Technical and Social Change: A Challenge for the Social Sciences), Schriften des Wissenschaftszentrums Berlin, Band 27, Konigstein/Ts.: Anton Hain, 1981.______, W.D. Webler, and D. Janshen, Editors. "Uberlegungen our politischen Okonomie der Grostechnologie am Reispiel der deutschen Schnellbruterentwicklung (Reflections on the Political Economy of Big Technology: The Example of the West German Fast Breeder Program)," in Technischer und sozialer Wandel: Eine Herausforderung an die Sozialwissenschaften. Konigstein/Ts.: Anton Hain, 1981.

Table of Contents:

OverviewOrganization and Personnel

Research and PublicationsSeminars Other Program Activities Related Professional Activities Former Members of the Research Staff