BCSIA Annual Report, 1978-1979: Research and Publications

BCSIA: 1978-1979 ANNUAL REPORT
3. Research and Publications

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RESEARCH AND PUBLICATIONS

The principal activity of the Center continued to be the performance of research on arms control and disarmament and the part these can play in reducing the dependence on force in world politics. Listed below are brief summaries of the primary research interests of members of the staff and a list of works published by them during 1978-79.

Research Interests

Robert J. Art, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, and Associate Professor of Politics, Brandeis University. Strategy, politics, and organization of the U.S. defense establishment, with emphasis on the period 1957-77, deterrence in retrospect and prospect; the role of the new "Congress" in defense policy.

Albert Carnesale, Associate Director, CSIA, and Professor of Public Policy. Technological, social, and political implications of the expanding use of nuclear energy with emphasis on relationships between nuclear energy capabilities and nuclear weapons capabilities; strategic arms control.

E. William Colglazier, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Associate Director, Aspen Program in Science, Technology and Humanism. Nuclear power and nonproliferation policies, including waste disposal and advanced fuel cycles; role of science and technology in development of the Third World; alternative energy sources and strategies; environmental policies and risk assessment for new technologies.

Stephen R. David, Graduate Student in Government. The behavior of beleaguered states (Taiwan, Israel, and South Africa); China and arms control. Motivations for states to change their orientation from pro-Soviet to pro-American (and vice-versa) with particular emphasis on the role of conflict and arms transfers in the change.

David A. Deese, Research Fellow, CSIA. Nuclear nonproliferation, especially spent reactor fuel management and control; international issues of energy and environment; conflict and cooperation over the multiple uses of ocean space, including the possible sub-seabed disposal of radioactive wastes.

Paul Doty, Director, CSIA, and Mallinckrodt Professor of Biochemistry. Role of arms control or restraint in diminishing the probability of conflicts; middle-range future of strategic arms control; relations of national science policies to foreign policy objectives; international scientific cooperation; nuclear power policies.

Francis Fukuyama, Graduate Student in Government, Harvard University. Soviet foreign policy in the Middle East; Persian Gulf security problems.

Thane Gustafson, Research Fellow, CSIA. Assistant Professor of Government. U.S. and Soviet science policy; public policy issues in the Soviet Union involving a technological component: computers, science policy, environment, food and energy.

Tariq Osman Hyder, Research Fellow, CSIA. The developing countries and disarmament. The effect of the evolving position of the developing countries, within the context of the North-South framework, on judicial process. (On leave from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan).

James E. Katz, Research Fellow, CSIA. International technology transfer, science policy, energy policy, comparative technology policy, social structure and public policy.

Derek Leebaert, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Managing Editor of International Security, published by CSIA; international sales of conventional weapons, and military assistance training, NATO politics and the European balance.

Michael Mandelbaum, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Assistant Professor of Government. The relationship between liberal values and foreign policy and the impact of nuclear weapons on international politics.

Onkar S. Marwah, Research Fellow, CSIA. Nuclear proliferation, with emphasis on the policies and programs of six developing nations expected to seek a nuclear weapons capability in the coming decade: Argentina, Brazil, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Stephen M. Meyer, Research Fellow, CSIA. Theater nuclear systems with particular emphasis on the assessment of (a) the impact of technological variables on conflict outcomes and (b) the impact of political variables on the development, deployment, and use of such systems. Nuclear proliferation with a special emphasis on modelling the dynamics of technological and political variables and their relationship to nuclear proliferation. Empirical modelling/analysis of international security issues.

Linda Miller, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA, and Professor of Political Science, Wellesley College. Politics of energy: domestic and international aspects, emphasizing relationships among advanced industrial countries, especially the U.S., Western Europe and Japan. American/European political, economic, and military relations.

Steven E. Miller, Graduate Student, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Soviet approaches to arms control; Soviet policy in Northern Europe.

Michael L. Nacht, Assistant Director, CSIA, and Associate Professor of Public Policy. Analysis of Soviet-American nuclear relations, including force postures and strategic arms control; strategies to slow nuclear proliferation; impact of the Vietnam War on American foreign policy.

Stephen W. Ritterbush, Rockefeller Foundation Fellow, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. The economic and political implications of scarce resources development; food resources and governmental policy; the new maritime regime and international conflict.

Ron Ronen, Research Fellow, CSTA. International security and arms control. (On leave from the Israeli Air Force).

Jane M. O. Sharp, Research Fellow, Graduate Institute for International Studies, Geneva. Arms control diplomacy as a determinant of military force planning, with particular reference to the impact of MBFR negotiations on NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Paul F. Walker, Research Fellow, CSIA. Role of bureaucracies in U.S. strategic arms control and disarmament policymaking; Soviet military policy; peacekeeping; defense budgeting; and arms transfers.

Dorothy Zinberg, Seminars and Special Projects Director, CSIA, and Lecturer in Public Policy. Longitudinal study of science career development in England and the implications for higher education, manpower planning and government policy; implications for science and government policy planning of long-term research visits abroad by scientists; public understanding of science; social responsibility of scientists.

Publications

Carnesale, Albert. "U.S. Nonproliferation Policy," Nuclear Energy and Alternatives by Kadiroglu, et. al. (eds.), pp. 333-346, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1978.

_____. "Wise Hawks Will Support SALT Accords," Op. Ed., Los Angeles Times, May 13, 1979.

_____. "The Progressive Should Drop the H-Bomb Case," Christian Science Monitor, May 23, 1979.

Colglazier, E. William, et. al., "Basic Human Needs as a Development Strategy," Proceedings of the 1978 Colombo Plan Conference (forthcoming).David, Steven. "Realignment in the Horn: The Soviet Advantage," International Security, Fall 1979 (forthcoming).

Deese, David, et. al., "Environmental Issues of Ocean Policy," Oceans Yearbook. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1978.

_____. and Frederick C. Williams (eds.), Nuclear Nonproliferation: The Spent Fuel Problem. New York: Pergamon Press (forthcoming).

Doty, Paul and Robert Metzger. "Arms Control Enters the Gray Area," International Security 3, No. 3, pp. 17-52.

_____. "Unappreciated Features of SALT II,! Op. Ed., Washington Post, March 13, 1979.

Fukuyama, Francis and Steven J. Rosen. "Egypt and Israel After Camp David," Current History, January 1979.

_____. Review of Israel: The Embattled Ally by Nadav Safran. American Spectator, January 1979.

_____. Review of The Ides of August: The Berlin Crisis of 1961. American Spectator, April 1979.

Garwin, Richard L. "Keyboard," IBM Technical Disclosure Bulletin, 21, No. 1, p 400.

_____.R.A. Muller, and B. Richter. "Magnetic-Gun Igniter for Controlled Thermonuclear Fusion," JASON Technical Report JSR-77-20.

_____. "The Myth of a First-Strike Capability," Disarmament Times, No. 24.

_____. "Defense Advice," LTR to the Editor of Aviation Week and Space Technology.

_____. "Charged-Particle Beam Weapons?" The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 34, No. 8, pp. 24-27.

_____, et. al. "JASON 1978 Sonic Boom Report," JASON Technical Note JSR-78-09.

_____. "60 Minutes on Particle Beam Weapons," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 35, No. 2, pp. 50-52.

_____. "Multiple Aimpoints Not the Answer," Nature 278, No. 5701, pp. 204-205.

Gustafson, Thane. "The Roots of Brezhnev''s Agricultural Policy," Problems of Communism, January-February 1979 (review article).

_____. "The Rise of an Environmental Protest Movement in Russia," in Dorothy Nelkin (ed.) Public Controversies over Technical Issues. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1979.

_____. "Technology Assessment, Soviet-Style: The Debate over Re-routing Northern Rivers to the South," Science (forthcoming).

_____. "Environmental Policy under Brezhnev," in Donald Kelley (ed.), The Soviet Union under Brezhnev. New York: Praeger, pb, 1980.

. "Why Doesn''t the Soviet Union do Better than it does in Basic Science?" in Linda Lubrano and Susan Solomon (eds.), The Social Context of Soviet Science. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1979.

Katz, James E. "Backstage at the White House: Science, Policy, and Power," Technology Review, March/April 1979.

Leebaert, Derek. European Security: Prospects for the 1980s. (editor). Reading, MA: D.C. Heath & Co., 1979.

_____. "Le Trentieme Anniversaire de 1''OTAN: Doutes et Espoirs," Politique Etrangere, Spring 1979.

Mandelbaum, Michael. "In Defense of SALT," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 1979.

_____. and William Schneider. "The New Internationalisms: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy," in Kenneth A. Oye, et. al. (eds.), Eagle Entangled: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Complex World. Longman, 1979.

_____. "Why SALT II," The New Leader, July 2, 1979.

_____. The Nuclear Question: The United States and Nuclear Weapons, 1946-1976. Cambridge University Press, Fall 1979.

Marwah, Onkar. "India''s Military Intervention in East Pakistan, 1971," Modern Asian Studies, Cambridge University Press, 1979, 45 pp.

_____. "National Security and Military Policy in India," in Lawrence Ziring (ed.), The Subcontinent in World Politics. New York: Praeger, 1978, pp. 30-57.

_____. "Military Power and Policy in India," in Onkar Marwah and Jonathan Pollack (eds.), Military Power and Policy in Asian States: Toward the 1980s. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1979, 65 pp.

_____. "Regional Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel: The Indian Ocean Area," in Fred Williams and David Deese (eds.), Nuclear Nonproliferation: The Spent Fuel Problem. New York. Pergamon Press (forthcoming).

_____. "Recent Trends in Indian Nuclear Policy," in John W. Mellor (ed.), India: A Rising Middle Power. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1979, 25 pp.

_____. and Jonathan Pollack (eds.). Military Power and Policy in Asian States: Toward the 1980s. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1979.

_____. and James Katz (eds.). Nuclear Energy Decision-Making in Developing Countries. New York: Praeger (forthcoming).

Meyer, Stephen M. "MAPS for MX," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, June 1979.

_____. "Verification and the ICBM Shell Game," International Security, Fall 1979.

Miller, Linda. "America and the Palestinians: In Search of a Policy," in Gabriel Ben-Dor (ed.), The Palestinians and the Middle East Conflict. Ramat-Gan, Israel: Turtledove Publishing, 1978.

_____. "America, Europe and the Energy-Security Dilemma," in Derek Leebaert (ed.), European Security: Prospects for the 1980s. Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1979.

_____. "The Palestinians and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: The U.S. Role," The Jerusalem Quarterly, April 1979.

_____. Review of Coral Bell: The Diplomacy of Detente Political Science Quarterly, Spring 1979.

Miller, Steven E. and Geoffrey Kemp. "The Arms Transfer Phenomenon," in A. Pierre (ed.), Arms Transfers. New York, NY: New York University Press, 1979 (in press).

_____. "Assessing the Soviet Navy," The Naval War College Review (forthcoming).

_____. "Review of Dimensions of Detente," Political Science Quarterly (forthcoming).

Nacht, Michael L. "Fallacies in Japan-U.S. Security Relations," Asia Pacific Community, Winter 1978-79, pp. 22-36.

_____. "In the Absence of SALT," International Security, Winter 1979, pp. 126-137.

_____. "Strategic Symposium," Washington Review of Strategic and International Studies, January 1979, pp. 15-18.

_____. "Controlling Nuclear Proliferation," in Kenneth Oye, Robert Lieber, and Donald Rothchild (eds.), Eagle Entangled: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Complex World. New York: Longman Inc., 1979, pp. 147-166.

_____. "Security in the Nuclear Age: A Review," The American Political Science Review, December 1978, pp. 1519-1521.

Sharp, Jane M.O. "The Eurostrategic Balance: A Plea for Benign Neglect," Proceedings of the 28th Annual Pugwash Conference (forthcoming).

_____. "MBFR As Arms Control," Negotiating Security: An Arms Control Reader. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1979.

_____. "The Alliance and Arms Control," NATO At Thirty (Annals of the Graduate Institute of International Studies) Geneva, 1979.

Walker, Paul F. "Arms Control Policy for the 1980s," America, June 9, 1979.

_____. "New Weapons and the Changing Nature of Warfare," Arms Control Today 9:4, April 1979.

_____. "Emerging Technology and National Defense," Proceedings of the Texas Philosophical Society (forthcoming).

Boston Study Group. The Price of Defense. New York: New York Times Books, 1979. (one of six co-authors.)

_____. and P. Morrison. "A New Strategy for Military Spending," Scientific American 239:4, October 1978, pp. 48-61.

_____. "Strategic Nuclear Weaponry: The Deadly Calculus." Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press (forthcoming). (Learning package of Consortium for International Studies Education.)

Zinberg, Dorothy. "The Public and Nuclear Waste Management: Who will Assess the Trade-otts and the Risks?" The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 35, No. 1, January 1979, pp. 34-39.

_____. Review of John McHale and Magda Cordell McHale: Basic Human Needs: A Framework for Action, and Dorothy Nelkin: Technological Decisions and Democracy: European Experiments In Public Participation. Technology and Culture, April 1979.

_____. "Informing the Public on Nuclear Waste Management in David Deese and Frederick C. Williams (eds.) Nuclear Nonproliferation: The Spent Fuel Problem. New York Pergamon Press (forthcoming).

International Security
International Security, the quarterly journal published by the Center for Science and International Affairs in conjunction with the MIT Press, completed its third year of publication in the Spring of 1979 with approximately four thousand subscribers. The journal''s articles continue to reflect the Center''s broad definition of international security as embracing all of those factors which have a direct bearing on the structure of the nation-state system and the sovereignty of its members, with particular emphasis on the use, threat, and control of force. It has established a reputation for objective analysis presented by scholars, military and government officials, journalists, business leaders, and members of the concerned public. During the third year, articles and debates addressed a wide range of topics. Following is an index of the titles and authors appearing in International Security during the past year.

VOLUME 3
NUMBER 3 WINTER 1978/79

Maintaining Stable Deterrence McGeorge Bundy

Arms Control Enters the Gray Area Robert Metzger and Paul Doty

How Little Is Enough? Francis Hoeber

Mobilization in the Nuclear Age Paul Bracken

The Economics of Arms Control Roger George

In the Absence of SALT Michael Nacht

The Historian and Battle John Keegan

Instability and Change on NATO''s Southern Flank CSIA European Security
Working Group Paper

Iranian Defense Expenditures and the Social Crisis Theodore H. Moran
Commentary

On Southern Africa, and On Mutual Deterrence Donald Brennan
Correspondence

VOLUME 3
NUMBER 4 Spring 1979

Turning the Supertanker: Arms Transfer Restraint Lucy Wilson Benson

Will the Soviet Union by an Autarky in 1984? Marshall I. Goldman

The Implications of Sino-American Normalization Jonathan D. Pollcck

The Military in a Democracy: Forrest Pogue A Review of American Ceasar

Eurocommunism: Between East and West Kevin Devlin

French Policy in Africa: A Lonely Pierre Lellouche and
Battle Against Destabilization Dominique Moisi
Naval Power and Soviet Global Strategy Michael MccGwire

On Mutual Deterrence Nick Eberstadt and Eric Breindel
Correspondence

VOLUME 4
NUMBER 1 SUMMER 1979

CHANGING THE RULES OF THE GAME?

Dilemmas for American in China''s modernization Lucian Pye

Communist vs. Communist in Southeast Asia Douglas Pike

Mexican Petroleum and U.S. National Security Richard R. Fagen

Nuclear Strategy: A Case for a Theory of Victory Colin S. Gray

NATO AT THIRTY

New Variations on Old Themes Stanley Hoffmann

Looking Ahead Robert Komer

REVIEW ESSAYS

Arm Waving at the Arms Race Laurence E. Lynn, Jr.

A Retrospection on World WAR II Daniel Yergin

COMMENTARIES

The Revival of Islamic Fundamentalism: The Case of Iran William E. Griffith

Soviet Intentions Michael MccGwire

VOLUME 4
NUMBER 2 Fall 1979

Scrambling and Spying on SALT II Strobe Talbott

The Political Importance of Soviet Equivalence Benjamin S. Lambeth

Verification and the ICBM Shell-Game Stephen M. Meyer

Realignment in the Horn: The Soviet Advantage Steven David

A Diplomatic Bomb for South Africa? Richard K. Betts

Sounding the Tocsin: NSC 68 and the Soviet Threat Samuel F. Wells, Jr.

Was Eisenhower a Genius? George Quester

Commentary Walt W. Rostow

Table of Contents:

OverviewOrganization and Personnel

Research and PublicationsSeminars Other Program Activities Related Professional Activities Former Members of the Research Staff