Reports & Papers
BCSIA: 1998-1999 ANNUAL REPORT
4. International Security Program
Core Staff
Steven E. Miller, Program Director
Graham T. Allison, Jr., Faculty Chair
Gretchen Bartlett, Assistant to Ashton Carter
Kristina Cherniahivsky, Program Assistant
Hilary Driscoll, Coordinator, Preventive Defense Project
Kristine Fringer, Assistant to Richard Falkenrath
Samantha Power, Executive Director, Human Rights Initiative
Alison Smith, Research Assistant, Human Rights Initiative
Rebecca Storo, Coordinator, Executive Session on Domestic Preparedness
Ingrid Tamm-Grudin, Research Assistant, Human Rights Initiative
Core Faculty
Graham T. Allison, Jr., Director, BCSIA; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government
Robert D. Backwill, Belfer Lecturer in International Security
Ashton B. Carter, Ford Foundation Professor of Science and International Affairs
Paul Doty, Director Emeritus, BCSIA; Mallinckrodt Professor of Biochemistry, Emeritus
Richard A. Falkenrath, Assistant Professor of Public Policy
John P. Holdren, Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy
Brian Mandell, Lecturer in Public Policy
Ernest May, Charles Warren Professor of History
Matthew S. Meselson, Thomas Dudley Cabot Professor of the Natural Sciences, Department of Molecular
and Cellular BiologyJoseph S. Nye, Jr., Dean, Kennedy School of Government; Don K. Price Professor of Public Policy
Senior Researchers
Richard A. Falkenrath, Principal Investigator, Executive Session on Domestic Preparedness
Shai Feldman, Regional and Middle East Security
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Series Editor, BCSIA Studies in International Security
Affiliated Programs
Harvard-Sussex Program on CBW Armament and Arms Limitations (Matthew Meselson, Director)
Program in Information Resources Policy (Anthony Oettinger, Director)
Harvard Ukrainian National Security Program (Ernest May, Chair)
Intelligence and Policy Project (Ernest May, Director)
Universities Study Group on Grand Terrorism (Aston B. Carter, Cochair)
International Security
Steven E. Miller, Editor-in-Chief
Michael E. Brown, Editor
Owen R. Coté, Jr., Editor
Sean M. Lynn Jones, Editor
Diane J. McCree, Deputy Editor
Meara E. Keegan Zaheer, Editorial Assistant
BCSIA STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Series Editor
Steven E. Miller, Managing Editor
Karen Motley, Executive Editor
Kristina Cherniahivsky, Editorial Assistant
Research Fellows
Samina Ahmed, Postdoctoral Fellow, Managing the Atom Project; Ph.D., Australian National University; Consultant, The Asia Foundation, Pakistan
Clifford Bob, Postdoctoral Fellow; Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Colin Elman, Postdoctoral Fellow; Ph.D., Columbia University; Assistant Professor of Political Science, Arizona State University
Miriam Elman, Postdoctoral Fellow; Ph.D., Columbia University; Assistant Professor of Political Science, Arizona State University
Peter Grose, Fellow; M.A., Oxford University; Former Editor, Foreign Affairs
Elizabeth Kier, Senior Fellow; Ph.D., Cornell University; Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California at Berkeley
Sergei Konoplyov, MPA, John F. Kennedy School of Government; Director, Ukrainian National Security Program, Harvard University
Christopher Kukk, Predoctoral Fellow; Boston College
Aaron Lobel, Predoctoral Fellow; Harvard University
Ariel Merari, Senior Fellow; Ph.D., University of California at Berkeley; Director, Political Violence Research Unit, Tel Aviv University
Kate O''Neill, Postdoctoral Fellow, Managing the Atom Project; Ph.D., Columbia University
Mary Sarotte, Postdoctoral Fellow; Ph.D., Yale University
Taylor Seybolt, Postdoctoral Fellow; Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jessica Stern, Postdoctoral Fellow; Ph.D., Harvard University, Next Generation Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
James Walsh, Postdoctoral Fellow, Managing the Atom Project; Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Research Associates
Clark Abt, Chairman, Abt Associates Inc.
Kristen Cashin, Research Assistant, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Walter C. Clemens, Jr., Professor of Political Science, Boston University
Charles Cogan, Senior Research Associate, John F. Kennedy School of Government
Owen R. Coté, Jr., Associate Director, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Helen Fein, Executive Director, Institute for the Study of Genocide
Philip Fellman, Associate Professor of International Business, Graduate School of Business, New Hampshire College
Randall Forsberg, Founder and Executive director, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies
Lisbeth Gronlund, Senior Staff Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists
Peter M. Haas, Professor, Political Science Department, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Robert E. Hunter, Senior Advisor at RAND, Washington, D.C.
George N. Lewis, Associate Director, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Daniel Lindley, Assistant Professor, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Notre Dame
Olya Oliker, Coordinator, Harvard University Project on Ukrainian Security
Barry R. Posen, Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Elizabeth Rogers, Independent Researcher; Instructor, Harvard Extension School
Jack Ruina, Professor Emeritus, Senior Lecturer, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sarah Sewall, Associate Director, Committee on International Security Studies, American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Harvey Sapolsky, Director, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Bernard Trainor, Lieutenant General, United States Marine Corps (Ret.)
Astrid S. Tuminez, Consultant, Carnegie Corporation of New York
Stephen Van Evera, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
David Wright, Senior Staff Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists
BACKGROUND
Since its founding in 1973, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has been the home to a substantial program focused on major problems of international security. The Belfer Center''s International Security Program (ISP) has rested on three pillars: a fellows program that brings to the Center pre- and postdoctoral scholars and occasional senior scholars; a vigorous publications program; and a research program aimed at producing policy-relevant work on the most important challenges to American and international security.
ISP has always embraced a broad definition of its substantive mandate, but traditional preoccupations of the program have included: security relations among the major powers, including Soviet-American relations during the Cold War and Russian-American relations subsequently; nuclear weapons, including questions of strategy, doctrine, force posture, and arms control and proliferation; America''s relations with major allies, particularly NATO and Japan; American policy, power, and role in the world; and regional security in various regional contexts.
RESEARCH AGENDA AND POLICY OUTREACH
In recent years, the research and outreach activities of the International Security Program have fallen into seven thematic areas. In each area, we seek to make a sustained commitment to large and important endeavors, and to build a stream of work that cumulates across time in terms of publications, activities, and individuals. The seven themes that broadly governed our work during 1998-99 are:
I. Weapons of Mass Destruction
II. Internal Conflict
III. Democracy and Peace
IV. Regional Security
V. Preventive Defense
VI. Executive Programs for Russia and China
VII. Human Rights Initiative
In what follows, we describe the evolution of our work in each area and highlight recent activities.
I. Weapons of Mass Destruction
ISP''s research agenda focuses heavily on issues relating to weapons of mass destruction. It is pursuing five broad projects in this area: (1) the Soviet Nuclear Legacy: Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy; (2) Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD); (3) Managing the Atom; (4) Chemical and Biological Weapons; and (5) Nuclear Nonproliferation and Nonproliferation Dialogues.
The Soviet Nuclear Legacy: Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy
Background: Since 1991, ISP has had as one of its core concerns the fate of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. The abortive coup attempt in Moscow in August 1991 vividly raised the question of who was controlling the Soviet arsenal. The subsequent disintegration of the Soviet Union raised the question of who would inherit the Soviet nuclear arsenal. The ensuing and ongoing political instability and economic travails in Russia raised the question of the safety and security of the Russian nuclear arsenal and nuclear empire. In view of the fact that these weapons constitute the largest potential threat to the United States and its allies, and given the potential of Russian nuclear weapons and weapons-usable materials to fuel terrorism and nuclear proliferation, this is one of the most significant security issues of the post-Cold War era.
In 1996, ISP undertook the completion, publication, and promotion of its third book analyzing important dimensions of this problem: Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material. This book examined the threat that Russian nuclear weapons or weapons-usable materials might leak out of Russia; assessed the adequacy of U.S. policies aimed at reducing the threat of nuclear leakage; and made recommendations for improving U.S. policy.
The publication of this book was accompanied by a range of activities aimed at furthering the understanding of this grave problem, raising its salience in the policy debate, and promoting improved policies for addressing the nuclear leakage threat. Activities included a press briefing at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., hosted by Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar; Congressional Hearings of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs on nuclear leakage at which BCSIA Director Graham Allison testified; a joint meeting in Washington with the Los Alamos National Laboratory to devise a comprehensive agenda for action by the United States and other governments; a conference on Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Proliferation and Terrorism jointly presented with Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Monterey Institute of International Studies; and a collaborative conference in Helsinki, cosponsored by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, the Swedish Institute for International Affairs, and the Institute for International Policy Studies (Tokyo, Japan), on "Meeting the Nuclear Challenges of the Next Century." The book and its authors have been cited numerous times in newspaper and journal articles, and the authors were awarded the honor of a 1996 Laurel from Aviation Week and Space Technology for their "outstanding contributions to nuclear disarmament, controlling weapons of mass destruction, and the preservation of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty."
In subsequent years, ISP has continued to address these issues through a range of products and activities, driven by the fact that the problem persists on the policy agenda and the potential dangers remain acute. BCSIA Director Graham Allison continued to speak frequently and write actively on this subject. Products included several op-eds (for example, "Nuclear Dangers," which appeared in the Boston Globe on October 19, 1997, and "Why Russia''s Meltdown Matters," published in the Washington Post on August 31, 1998). He also coauthored (with Karl Kaiser and Sergei Karaganov) a short monograph, Towards a New Democratic Commonwealth, that highlighted the dangers of loose nukes and advocated multilateral efforts to address the problem. ISP Director Steven Miller delivered a paper, "Russia, Nuclear Leakage, and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime," at a meeting in Castiglioncello, Italy; this essay will be published as a chapter in the volume issuing from the conference. Miller also gave presentations that addressed dimensions of this set of issues at meetings in Geneva, Switzerland; Como, Italy; Arzamas-16, Russia; Stockholm, Sweden; Tokyo, Japan; and Tel Aviv, Israel. BCSIA Executive Director Richard Falkenrath lectured on nuclear security in Russia to several audiences in Cambridge and Washington, D.C. He also testified on this subject in Bonn, Germany, before a Parliamentary Commission of the German Bundestag.
BCSIA''s work on this subject was strengthened by the extensive efforts of STPP colleagues John Holdren and Matthew Bunn, whose work on U.S.-Russian nuclear relations, plutonium disposition, Russian nuclear cities, and nuclear smuggling (detailed elsewhere in this report) perfectly complements and augments ISP work on fissile material security in the former Soviet Union. Particularly notable in this context is their study "Managing Military Uranium and Plutonium in the United States and the Former Soviet Union," published in the Annual Review of Energy and Environment, 1997, which provides the most substantial and comprehensive survey of the issue since the publication of Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy.
ISP also helped organize and cosponsored two international conferences that were built largely around the its work on nuclear security in the former Soviet Union. The first, a conference on "Post-Cold War Non-Proliferation and Security Challenges and Their Implications for Security in the Nordic, Baltic, and East European Regions," was held in Parnu, Estonia, in March 1998. It drew together several dozen European and American experts to discuss this new security agenda. The second conference, cosponsored with the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Tel Aviv, was held in Tel Aviv, Israel, in June 1998. It focused on "Challenges to Global and Middle East Security." The ISP work on fissile material security in Russia was extensively exposed to a large segment of the Israeli security community and policymakers (including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu). Because many of the states that might benefit from nuclear leakage out of Russia are bitter enemies of Israel, this subject directly engages its vital interests, and hence the ISP work found a receptive audience. It seems likely that further collaboration on these issues with Israeli colleagues will result from this initial interaction.
In addition, ISP supported the work of Postdoctoral Fellow Jason Ellis, which was centered on U.S. efforts to forge policies that would help address, in a cooperative fashion, the nuclear leakage threat in Russia. He completed a book manuscript on this topic. Entitled Defense by Other Means: The Politics of U.S.-NIS Threat Reduction and Nuclear Security Cooperation, it examines the evolution of, and the U.S. domestic politics associated with, the U.S. Nunn-Lugar Program. He also published an article, "Nunn-Lugar''s Unfinished Agenda," in the October 1997 issue of Arms Control Today.
Activities in 1998-99: During this year, the problem of "loose nukes" remained urgently on the national and international policy agenda. Though there has been progress in improving the security of Russian holdings of nuclear weapons and fissile materials, worrying deficiencies and vulnerabilities persist. Indeed, during the summer of 1998, Russia plunged once again into deep crisis, reinvigorating fears that political instability and severe economic distress might lead to the leakage of nuclear weapons or fissile materials out of Russia. Most who follow this issue closed believe that the winter of 1998-99 was particularly dangerous phase of this problem, as Russia''s nuclear empire struggled with especially acute financial problems. Accordingly, this set of issues remained prominently on the ISP agenda.
BCSIA''s "Loose Nukes Task Force," formed in 1997, was meant to draw together those within the Center and in the Cambridge community with an interest in this subject. It continued to meet occasionally throughout this year, with its sessions normally focused on generating and assessing prescriptions that might at once be both feasible and useful. Members of the group were quite active in taking any good ideas that were generated (for example, the nuclear cities initiative) and advocating them before various policy communities in Washington and Moscow. Members of the Loose Nukes Task Force also benefited from a weekly "loose nukes" email news digest.
ISP staff (along with STPP colleagues) continued to lecture widely on the "loose nukes" problem; presentations were given in the last year in Moscow, Tokyo, Como (Italy), Washington, D.C., Bonn, Cambridge, and elsewhere. This issue figured prominently in two workshops organized by BCSIA, one in Cambridge in February 1999 and another in Tokyo in March 1999. More detail on BCSIA activities on this subject can be found in the discussion of the Managing the Atom Project, elsewhere in this report.
In short, ISP continues to invest heavily in efforts to analyze and address this immediate, urgent, and (unfortunately) ongoing threat. We remain convinced that few things would be worse for American security than a failure to prevent major nuclear leakage from Russia.
Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Background: ISP''s work on avoiding nuclear anarchy in Russia argued that there was a growing potential risk of nuclear terrorism. This proposition turned out to be one of the more contentious and controversial points raised in Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy. Disputation on this issue inspired ISP to undertake a more detailed and intensive look at the intersection of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. During academic year 1996-97, therefore, ISP launched a research project on this subject. A team of ISP researchers, led by BCSIA Executive Director Richard Falkenrath and including Research Fellows Robert Newman and Bradley Thayer, set out to produce a book-length analysis of WMD terrorism. The study they conducted focused not only on the technical feasibility of NBC terrorism and unconventional means of delivery by states, but also the potential motivations of covert mass destruction attacks by states and nonstate actors.
This research effort was buttressed by complementary activities. In May 1996, BCSIA, in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory, sponsored a major national conference on nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons terrorism and proliferation. This conference contributed to the passage of the Defense against Weapons of Mass Destruction Act of 1996 (also known as the Nunn-Lugar-Domenici amendment). To better understand the difficult issue of how nonstate actors might be motivated to use weapons of mass destruction, the Center sponsored a second conference, held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, in February 1997, intended to take an in-depth look at the potential motives of NBC terrorism. Cosponsored with Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Monterey Institute of International Studies, the expert-level workshop gathered together a select group of the nation''s leading terrorism experts, policy analysts, and technical specialists with detailed knowledge of how to build and use weapons of mass destruction.
The research effort by Falkenrath, Newman, and Thayer resulted in the completion of the book America''s Achilles'' Heel: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack, which was published in the spring of 1998 in the BCSIA Studies in International Security series by MIT Press. A key feature of this book is a comprehensive prescriptive agenda for the U.S. government, focusing both on how to ensure that acts of NBC terrorism and covert attack remain infrequent, and on how to respond to such acts if they do in fact occur. Over the course of 1996-97, Falkenrath also briefed the preliminary findings of this study to numerous government officials and expert gatherings, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Livermore Study Group, the Nonproliferation Center of the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Science Board, and congressional staffs. In 1997-98, the contents and recommendations were widely disseminated through dozens of lectures, television appearances, briefings in Washington, and radio and newspaper interviews. Falkenrath also participated in the summer of 1997 in the Defense Science Board''s study (sponsored by the Department of Defense) of the terrorist threat to the United States. Falkenrath has also produced an article-length analysis of these issues, "Confronting Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Terrorism," which appeared in the autumn 1998 issue of Survival, a quarterly journal.
Activities in 1998-99: ISP continued work in this area on three tracks. First, there was substantial follow-on activity that flowed from the publication of America''s Achilles'' Heel. Project leader Richard Falkenrath lectured on WMD terrorism at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, spoke on that topic to the New England Public Health Association, the National Governor''s Association, the U.S. Naval War College, and the U.S. Department of Justice, and gave presentations to conferences in Switzerland and Washington, D.C. He contributed an essay on the subject to the winter 1998/1999 issue of the quarterly, Survival, and wrote papers for the conference in Switzerland, and for the U.S. National Intelligence Council. Second, 1998-99 witnessed the launch of a second major project, this one focused on domestic preparedness. With financial support from the U.S. Department of Justice, this project will undertake both research and workshops aimed at assessing and improving the capacity of the United States and other industrial democracies to cope with terrorist threats and terrorist activities. Third, as noted below, the Preventive Defense Project has included a strand of work devoted to the subject of "catastrophic terrorism." This work has resulted in both a published report and an article, coauthored by Aston Carter, John Deutch, and Philip Zelikow, that appeared in the November/December 1998 issue of Foreign Affairs.
Managing the Atom Background: Nuclear issues have always occupied a central place on the ISP agenda. During the Cold War, considerable attention was given to the nuclear doctrines and policies of the two superpowers, the nuclear arms control negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union, and nuclear proliferation (including closely related dimensions of the nuclear fuel cycle). Such concerns remain very much relevant today, despite the demise of the Cold War antagonism. But the dramatically new international context demands rethinking of core nuclear issues. There is no reason to suppose that the solutions of the Cold War period will be appropriate for the new age that now exists.
This notion inspired the creation of the Managing the Atom Project, a standing research group within BCSIA. It is pursued in close collaboration with the Belfer Center''s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program and its Director, Professor John Holdren. ISP actively participates in the Managing the Atom Project, which is undertaking a thorough reassessment of key elements of both civilian and military nuclear programs in the aftermath of the Cold War. Initial priorities have included U.S.-Russia nuclear relations and international fissile material management and disposition. In 1996-97, ISP supported the work of Matthew Bunn on fissile material disposition, nuclear security in the former Soviet Union, and U.S.-Russian nuclear relations; of Jennifer Weeks on U.S.-Chinese nuclear relations, and the domestic politics of nuclear issues in the United States; of Postdoctoral Fellow Allison Macfarlane''s work on nuclear waste disposal; and of Research Fellow Robert Newman''s work both on improving International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards and on preventing WMD terrorism.
Activities in 1998-99: The collaborative activities of the Managing the Atom Project are detailed elsewhere in this report, in the section devoted to the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program. In addition to the activities reported there, members of ISP continued to monitor developments in strategic arms control and U.S.-Russian nuclear forces. Steven Miller gave several lectures on these topics at international conferences in Europe. STPP colleague Matthew Bunn similarly followed these issues closely and developed an analysis of future directions for strategic arms control. Graham Allison looked in particular at the circumstances relating to the possible ratification of START II by the Russian Duma and interacted regularly with senior Russian officials in Moscow about this issue.
Chemical and Biological Weapons
Background: ISP provides the Harvard base for the Harvard-Sussex Program on CBW (Chemical and Biological Weapons) Armament and Arms Limitation, run by the Faculty Chair, Professor Matthew Meselson. During the past year, its work has had two main focal points: the ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the criminalization of the use of CBW weapons. Both Meselson and Senior Research Fellow Marie Chevrier were active in the public education effort in support of ratification of the CWC. Meselson led an effort to secure the signatures of members of the National Academy of Sciences on a letter supporting the treaty to Senator Trent Lott (R-Miss.), and Chevrier provided expertise to editorial writers and appeared on talk radio around the country. She also lobbied Senate offices, addressed a rally at the Capitol during CWC education days, participated in strategy discussions of the Poison Gas Task Force, and worked with grassroots organizations to provide information and advice.
In the aftermath of the CWC''s ratification, the project hosted a panel discussion moderated by Chevrier, "CWC Ratification and the Future of Arms Control," that featured Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.), Lori Esposito Murray, special assistant to President Bill Clinton, and Professor Meselson. Meselson also organized a working meeting on the criminalization of CBW weapons that was attended by senior international law and diplomacy experts in January 1997. The CBW Project also conducted a colloquium on CBW arms control research, new and emerging developments in the natural sciences that affect CBW policy, and international negotiations to prevent the development and use of these weapons. Colloquium speakers included Gordon Vachon, Department of Foreign Affairs, Canada; Jonathan Tucker, Monterey Institute of International Studies; Anne Harrington, U.S. Department of State; and Jessica Eve Stern, formerly at the National Security Council.
Activities in 1998-99: The aim of the Harvard-Sussex Program on Chemical and Biological Warfare Armaments and Arms Limitation (HSP) is to promote the global elimination of chemical and biological weapons and to strengthen the constraints against hostile uses of biomedical technologies. In 1997-98, following the U.S. Senate ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention in April 1997, HSP focused on the implementation of the CWC and strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) through research and education. In early 1999, the Center published the volume: Biological Weapons: Limiting the Threat, edited by Joshua Lederberg. The book contains a chapter written by Senior Research Fellow Marie Chevrier, who wrote two other book chapters also forthcoming in 1999, and two reports, one on confidence-building measures for the BWC and another on the cost and structure of a BWC organization. The program sponsored a weekly colloquium on CBW issues that attracted scholars from Harvard, MIT, and Tufts and included speakers from the U.S. Departments of State and Defense, U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq, and prominent scholars from research institutes and universities.
Nuclear Nonproliferation and Nonproliferation Dialogues
Background: In the post-Cold War era, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is one of the most pressing security concerns for the United States and has become a major issue in U.S. relations with its allies. ISP has sought to address the linkages between proliferation and allies by engaging in nonproliferation dialogues with colleagues from two of America''s most important allies, Germany and Japan. Thus, in 1996-97 ISP continued its ongoing series of discussions on nonproliferation issues in the U.S.-German Study Group on Nonproliferation, jointly hosted with the Research Institute of the Germany Society for Foreign Affairs in Bonn. The purpose of these talks was to facilitate high-level communication between the German and American security communities on nonproliferation, including both scholars and government officials. These meetings have been held twice a year for several years, alternating meeting sites between the United States and Germany. Topics addressed include the North Korean nuclear program and the international responses to it, the allegations about Iran''s nuclear aspirations, the role and findings of the UN Special Commission with respect to Iraq''s programs for acquiring weapons of mass destruction, the problem of fissile material security in the former Soviet Union, the threat of chemical and biological weapons proliferation, and the risk of terrorism with weapons of mass destruction.
Activities in 1998-99: Since 1992, ISP has engaged in regular collaborations with colleagues from Japan interested in the impact of nuclear issues on U.S.-Japan relations. In March 1999, the sixth joint workshop, under the heading "U.S.-Japan Nonproliferation Dialogue," was held in Tokyo, Japan. This was a small workshop with a delegation of leading Japanese experts on nuclear matters engaged in an intensive discussion of proliferation-related issues of relevance to U.S.-Japan relations. Topics addressed included the controversy associated with the plutonium fuel cycle, problems of nuclear waste disposal, international concerns about long-term plutonium disposition, as well as North Korea''s nuclear program and other issues that could have an effect on U.S. and Japanese security interests in Northeast Asia. In addition, under the auspices of the Managing the Atom Project, ISP collaborated in a second workshop, focused on issues of plutonium disposition, that brought BCSIA researchers together with colleagues from the Department of Quantum Physics of the University of Tokyo. In addition, ISP continued its tradition of supporting scholars working in the field of nonproliferation. During 1998-99, ISP''s fellows program included James Walsh, working on the factors that inhibited proliferation in instances where states chose not to acquire nuclear weapons despite possession of an active nuclear weapons program, and Samina Ahmed (from Pakistan), working on the implications of proliferation in South Asia.
II. Internal Conflict Background: As events in places as far-flung as Bosnia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, and Rwanda have demonstrated, internal conflict is a vexing international problem and a source of enormous human suffering. It is also unfortunately commonplace, with two or three dozen internal conflicts raging in any given year; internal conflict occurs far more frequently than war between states. Accordingly, this subject looms large in ISP''s work on preventing deadly conflict, which is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and which operates in cooperation with the Carnegie Commission on the Prevention of Deadly Conflict.
Over the past several years, ISP has undertaken two projects, both led by ISP Associate Director Michael Brown, that seek to examine the causes of and potential solutions to internal conflict, and that explicitly consider what instruments are available to national governments and to the international community for preventing or coping with internal conflict.
The first of ISP''s projects on internal conflict was a two-year study, involving nearly every resident ISP fellow as well as a number of outside experts, that sought to explore three sets of issues: the causes of internal conflict; the ways in which internal conflicts spread beyond the borders of a single state; and the efforts of the international community to prevent, manage, or resolve internal conflicts. Specific attention was given to the question of international involvement in internal conflicts, examining the international actors who get drawn into internal conflicts, or who thrust themselves into an internal conflict, and assessing as well the instruments available to outside actors seeking to intervene.
A working group, consisting of nine members of BCSIA, several colleagues from Harvard''s Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, and six scholars from outside Cambridge, was formed to address these topics. In addition, a regular speaker series on internal conflict was organized and two workshops were held to expose the efforts of the working group to critical scrutiny. The main purpose of the group was to produce an edited volume that would advance understanding of the problem of internal conflict. The group''s efforts culminated in the publication of the book The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, which was published by MIT Press in 1996 to laudatory reviews by the Los Angeles Times, Foreign Affairs, and World Politics.
ISP''s second major project on internal conflict was an exploration of the policy instruments available to national governments seeking to avert ethnic conflict and minimize ethnic friction. In 1996, in collaboration with Harvard''s Pacific Basin Research Center, ISP launched a project designed to examine policies pursued by Asian governments in their efforts to manage ethnic relations - a project that is, in a sense, a successor to the project and completed volume on internal conflict. The goal of this project was to produce a book that would undertake an analysis of what policies seem most effective at containing ethnic problems and preventing ethnic conflict.
The book Government Policies and Ethnic Relations in Asia and the Pacific was published by MIT Press in the fall of 1997. It consists of 12 case studies, each focused on a single Asian country, but carefully structured to provide the basis for comparative assessment of the impact and effectiveness of the ethnic policies of Asian governments. In its orientation, this project differs considerably from a growing number of ethnic conflict studies that examine existing or historical conflicts. The aim of this study has been to examine the instruments available to governments for averting or minimizing ethnic problems.
ISP''s preoccupation with the topic of internal conflict has also influenced its wider publications program. It has encouraged, induced, or attracted numerous articles on these topics for its quarterly journal International Security. Many of these pieces were collected in the International Security Reader, Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict, published by MIT Press in 1997. Intended to serve the teaching market, this book sold nearly 2,000 copies in its first year.
Activities in 1998-99: The next major product in this area will be that undertaken by former Associate Director Michael Brown, who initiated a further research project on internal conflict, this one aimed at producing a single-authored book on the causes of ethnic conflict. This project commenced in late 1997 and so far has included extensive field research in Sri Lanka, Bosnia, and Croatia, as well as an extensive literature review. In 1998-99, Brown''s research and field work focused on Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.
During academic year 1998-99, ISP also supported the work of research fellows studying various aspects of internal conflict. Dr. Clifford Bob worked on the revision of his dissertation on how insurgent groups in internal conflicts succeed or fail to obtain international support for their causes; the book manuscript has now been submitted for publication. Predoctoral Fellow Taylor Seybolt focused his efforts on issues relating to intervention in internal conflicts. His largest project is his MIT dissertation on humanitarian intervention by military forces, which seeks to identify the conditions that account for the success or failure of such interventions in civil wars and other internal crises. He also coauthored an article on the dilemmas associated with U.S. intervention in civil wars.
Problems associated with internal conflict have also loomed large in ISP''s Human Rights Initiative, described below.
III. Democracy and PeaceBackground: Another strand of ISP''s work in the area of preventing deadly conflict focuses on the connection between democracy and peace. Is democracy a cause of peace? Would a democratizing world be a more peaceful world? Is the promotion of democracy an effective long-term strategy for preventing deadly conflict? For several years, ISP has had an ongoing commitment to conduct research on the relationship between democracy and peace, and, more specifically, the proposition that democracies never fight wars with one another. The apparent existence of a democratic peace has led many scholars and policymakers to claim that a world of democracies would be a world without war and that the United States should make the promotion of democracy the cornerstone of its foreign policy. BCSIA''s research in this area explores the theoretical underpinnings of the democratic peace as well as its implications for U.S. foreign and security policy. During the last several years, ISP engaged in three separate but linked projects that explore aspects of the connection between democracy and peace: Paths to Peace: Is Democracy the Answer?; Should the United States Try to Export Democracy?; and Democratization and War.
The first of these efforts sought to undertake a qualitative assessment of the democratic peace hypothesis and resulted in the edited volume, Paths to Peace: Is Democracy the Answer?, which offers a historically grounded empirical reconsideration of the democratic peace hypothesis. This approach contrasts sharply with other studies of the democratic peace, most of which rely on statistical analysis of a large sample of states and conflicts. Under the direction of Dr. Miriam Fendius Elman, a former BCSIA research fellow, a group of distinguished experts and promising younger scholars examined how domestic norms and institutions influenced decisions for war or peace in past crises. The cases selected included crises between pairs of democracies, between a democracy and a nondemocracy, and between pairs of nondemocracies. Some of these crises escalated to war and others did not. The contributors to Paths to Peace examined the historical record to see if democratic processes reduced the likelihood of war and if the absence of democratic norms and institutions made states more bellicose. On the whole, the authors conclude that democracy does not necessarily lead to peace. Domestic factors influence decisions to go to war, but domestic politics can make some democracies more warlike. Further, some nondemocracies may even be less likely to go to war because of the absence of public pressure on their leaders. Paths to Peace thus suggests that the United States should be more cautious about basing policies on the premise that spreading democracy will cause peace. The book was published by MIT Press in August 1997.
Activities in 1998-99: The other two projects represent ongoing work. BCSIA''s second project on democracy and peace focuses on U.S. policy choices. In Should America Spread Democracy? A Debate, Sean Lynn-Jones and Christopher Layne engage in a spirited exchange of views on whether U.S. interests are advanced by U.S. attempts to promote democracy - a central issue in debates over the future of American foreign policy. Lynn-Jones, a Research Associate at BCSIA, presents the case for spreading democracy. He argues that democratic political systems benefit their citizens more than other types of political systems; the spread of democracy is likely to expand the zone of democratic peace; and America''s security and economic relations will be enhanced in a world of more democracies. Layne, who was a BCSIA Postdoctoral Research Fellow in 1995-96 and is now a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and a resident consultant at the RAND Corporation, takes the opposite view, arguing that the democratic peace is a myth and thus U.S. policies to spread democracy will not increase international peace. In his view, U.S. policies to export democracy will not work and will divert attention from important domestic priorities. He argues that the United States should focus on its national interests instead of attempting to control the domestic politics of other countries.
Should America Spread Democracy? will stimulate and inform further public debate on this important issue in U.S. foreign policy and is expected to be an invaluable teaching tool. The completed draft is now being revised, and the volume will be published in the BCSIA Studies in International Security series by MIT Press.
The Center''s third project on democracy and peace is a study of the connection between the process of democratization and war. With BCSIA''s support, Professors Edward Mansfield of Ohio State University and Jack Snyder of Columbia University are writing a book that will build on their pathbreaking and controversial summer 1995 International Security article, "Democratization and the Danger of War." In that article, Mansfield and Snyder argued that established democracies may enjoy a democratic peace, but states in the process of becoming democracies are more likely to be embroiled in war. The democratization process often creates nascent democracies without stable institutions. Leaders in such countries may be tempted to fan the flames of nationalism to achieve and maintain power, thereby creating a climate for aggressive war. In their book, which will be published by MIT Press as part of BCSIA''s book series, Mansfield and Snyder will offer an extensive quantitative analysis of the link between democratization and war, as well as detailed case studies of democratizing states and their decisions for war or peace.
IV. Regional Security Background: Many of the world''s security problems manifest themselves in regional settings. With the end of the Cold War, dilemmas of regional security have become even more prominent on the international security agenda. In recent years, ISP has sought to expand and strengthen its coverage of regional security issues, in part by selection of pre- and postdoctoral fellows working on security in specific regions and in part by recruitment of distinguished senior fellows. For the past two years, ISP''s efforts to address regional security have been led by and centered on the activities of Senior Fellow Shai Feldman. In the first phase of his work, Dr. Feldman completed two projects that dealt with the changing security environment in the Middle East. First, he finished an extensive and comprehensive assessment of the problem of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, and of the potential arms control restraints on the nuclearization of the Middle East. This project gave rise to a book, Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in the Middle East, published by MIT Press in 1997 as part of the BCSIA Studies in International Security series. It is regarded as an essential source on that issue. Second, Feldman, along with coauthor Dr. Abdullah Toukan (Science Adviser to His Majesty King Hussein of Jordan and Head of Jordan''s delegation to the Arms Control and Regional Security talks), brought to fruition an unprecedented effort to find middle ground between the Arab and Israeli perspectives on security in the Middle East. Their book, Bridging the Gap: A Future Security Architecture for the Middle East, published by the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict (which also supported their project), has been hailed as a remarkable and historic attempt to jointly explore the most sensitive security issues in the Middle East.
Activities in 1998-99: Feldman''s latest work has focused on the diplomacy of the peace process in the Middle East, and in particular on the unofficial, or Track II, discussions that have proceeded in parallel with, and sometimes instead of, the formal negotiations between the interested parties. The goal of this exercise is, in part, to describe the evolution of the Middle East peace process. Feldman''s work also draws general lessons from the record of the Track-II talks, which have been instrumental in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and to explore the possible implications of these lessons for other regions. This project builds on Feldman''s earlier studies of arms control and the security dialogue in the Middle East.
This ongoing study evaluates the various Middle East Track-II discussions held over the past 15 years and ascertains which of these efforts succeeded and which failed. More important, the study attempts to explain Track-II successes and failures. Within this context, particular emphasis is placed on examining whether the Middle East experience in Track-II talks could be applied to reducing the risks of conflict and war in East Asia. The results of this study, with particular emphasis on policy recommendations, are being distributed widely to decisionmakers and policy elites in the United States, the Middle East, and East Asia. The research team is comprised of two Israeli scholars - Feldman and Ze''ev Schiff, defense editor of Israel''s leading daily newspaper Ha''aretz - and two Arab scholars - Dr. Ahmad Khalidi and Dr. Hussein Agha.
ISP also has launched a strategic partnership with the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Tel Aviv. A first jointly activity was a large conference assessing the changed strategic environment for Israel and the United States, held in Tel Aviv in the summer of 1998. The conference report, Challenges to Global and Middle East Security, was published in the fall of 1998. In March 1999, the Jaffee Center and BCSIA cosponsored (with others) an international conference on "The Future of Military Doctrine," which examined in particular the doctrinal influences of the U.S. and Israeli militaries on each other. Further joint projects are planned, with the expectation that coming activities will focus on the problem of WMD proliferation in the Middle East/Persian Gulf region. In addition, ISP and the Jaffee Center have reached agreement that the Jaffee Center''s authoritative and influential annual volume, The Middle East Military Balance, will appear in ISP''s book series, BCSIA Studies in International Security; the first volume to appear under this agreement was completed in the summer of 1999 is proceeding toward publication before the end of 1999.
V. Preventive DefenseBackground: The Preventive Defense Project is a joint venture between Stanford University and Harvard University, begun during 1996-97 under the leadership of Professor Ashton Carter at BCSIA and Dr. William Perry at Stanford''s Center for International Security and Arms Control. The premise of Preventive Defense is that the absence of an imminent, major, traditional military threat to American security presents the U.S. with a unique challenge: to prevent new threats from emerging. While day-to-day crisis management preoccupies policymakers, Preventive Defense concentrates on identifying and forestalling developments that could pose new threats to U.S. vital interests. The project is initially concentrating on avoiding worst-case scenarios with Russia, dealing with the lethal legacy of Cold War weapons of mass destruction, engaging an awakening China, and countering proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and grand terrorism. The Preventive Defense Project seeks to contribute to these four objectives through intensive personal interaction with defense and military leaders around the world and through the establishment of highly informed but nongovernmental "Track II" initiatives that explore new approaches to our most pressing security problems. Among other activities, this project will produce a book on the concept of preventive defense, cosponsor a working group on grand terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, and pursue a number of initiatives in Russia, China, and other newly independent states of the former Soviet Union to address and advance key security issues.
The Preventive Defense Project pursued an ambitious agenda of activities during 1997-98, including some eighteen conferences, meetings, and workshops. Most of this activity was centered on three of its core interests: continuing interaction with Russian defense experts and officials on security issues of common interest; building relationships with the Chinese defense community; and coping with the challenge of grand terrorism. In addition, the Preventive Defense Project organized and cosponsored three major conferences on "NATO after Madrid," "Ukraine-NATO Relations," and "The Revolution in Business Affairs." The project also produced a series of monographs derived from these activities, including Catastrophic Terrorism: Elements of a National Policy and The Content of U.S. Engagement with China.
Activities in 1998-99: In March 1999, Dr. Carter and Dr. Perry coauthored a book that prescribes a new security strategy for the United States: Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Brookings Institution Press, 1999). To celebrate the book''s publication and to further communicate the policies and programs contained in it, several events were held in Washington, D.C. and elsewhere such as book signings, press gatherings, a meeting at the National Press Club, and a book party at BCSIA co-hosted by Preventive Defense and the Council on Foreign Relations where General John Shalikashvili, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Senior Advisor to the Preventive Defense Project, delivered opening remarks.
In addition to the book, the Preventive Defense Project conducted many other activities in 1998-99. The project continued its focus on helping to create a productive U.S.-Russia security partnership by visiting with senior Russian officials in Moscow on January 21st-23rd 1999, and July 8-11, 1999. In the most recent trip, Project members met with Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, Chief of the General Staff Anatoly Kvashnin, and many other Russian leaders and academics, and were joined by Center Executive Director General John Reppert. On February 28-March 7, 1999, members of the Project also continued their efforts to promote stable U.S.-China relations, and along with members of the National Committee for U.S.-China Relations, made a visit to both mainland China and Taiwan, where they spoke with senior leaders in both countries and were able to present China''s President Jiang Zemin a copy of Preventive Defense. Finally, the project continues its effort to explore ways to reform the management and organization of the Department of Defense to meet the security challenges of the next century, and this will be a major focus of effort over the coming year.
VI. Executive Programs for Russia and ChinaU.S.-Russian Security Relations
BCSIA Board Member Robert Blackwill is the Faculty Chair of the Kennedy School''s Executive Program for General Officers of the Russian Federation and the United States, an initiative sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the U.S. Department of Defense. In the first years of the program, participation was limited to Russian generals, and the program was known as the Executive Program for General Officers of the Russian Federation. In January 1997, American generals and flag officers began to participate as well, a watershed for the project. The curriculum of the program includes U.S.-Russian relations, arms control, U.S.-Russian national security priorities in the 1990s, and preventing ethnic conflict. It is designed primarily to enhance U.S.-Russian dialogue on these topics, but also to provide participants with knowledge that will assist them in managing the current challenges faced by both militaries. Experts from BCSIA, including Graham Allison, Ashton Carter, Richard Falkenrath, and Steven Miller, have frequently contributed to the program as lecturers. Additionally, the program has been a key vehicle for the development of strong ties between the Kennedy School and Russia''s national security elite.
U.S.-Chinese Security Relations
BCSIA Board Member Robert Blackwill is also the Faculty Chair of the Kennedy School''s Executive Program for Senior Chinese Military Officers. With the sponsorship of Harvard''s Nina Kung Initiative, this program - the first of its kind in the West - began in January 1997, when 23 high-ranking military officers from the People''s Liberation Army traveled to Harvard for a two-week executive program that focused on political, economic, and security developments in Asia; U.S.-China relations; and geopolitical trends. The program is taught by Harvard faculty members and leading outside specialists. Lecturers in the program from BCSIA included Graham Allison, Ashton Carter, Richard Falkenrath, Steven Miller, and Philip Zelikow. Like the Kung Initiative of which it is a critical part, the Executive Program for Senior Chinese Military Officers is a central part of the Kennedy School''s strategy for strengthening its links with Chinese leaders, as well as for developing its core expertise on matters of Chinese foreign policy and national security strategy, and Asian affairs more broadly.
VII. Human Rights InitiativeBackground: In conjunction with the 1998 global campaign to mark the 50th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), Harvard''s John F. Kennedy School of Government launched a new Human Rights Initiative (HRI). HRI, as the precursor to the new Carr Center for Human Rights Policy (established in June 1999), endeavored to contribute to the field of human rights by developing a research and education program in "human rights policy." As a foundation for Kennedy School courses, and in an effort to contribute to the broader human rights debate, HRI research attempted to assess and draw lessons from recent governmental and nongovernmental attempts to promote and protect human rights. HRI''s mission was to inquire, at the individual, local, national, and international level: "What has worked, and why?"
Activities in 1998-99: As a first step, HRI began a book series on human rights policy, and is in the process of preparing the first such volume, Human Rights Policy: What Works? Contributors to this volume include Wei Jingsheng, President Jimmy Carter, Louis Henkin, Mary Robinson, and John Shattuck. The volume is forthcoming in 2000. On November 4, 1998, HRI hosted a conference and series of panel discussions at the Kennedy School celebrating the 50th anniversary of the UDHR, designed to elicit critical commentary on What Works?
HRI, and now the Carr Center, is committed to involving KSG students in human rights policy work as well, both through curriculum development and independent student research. In the spring of 1999, HRI operated a series of working groups comprised of graduate students, who contributed to a joint project with the Lawyers Committee for Human Rights. They prepared working papers for the Year 2000 Project, designed to serve as a foreign policy blueprint for the incoming U.S. administration, in the hopes of informing and affecting U.S. human rights policies.
In addition, HRI sponsored several Forum events during the year, hosted individuals from inside and outside the Harvard human rights community to deliver informal lunchtime remarks, ran a film series, and held regular "Human Rights Gatherings" for members of the local human rights communities. These events served to alert KSG faculty and students to ongoing human rights concerns and challenges.
MEMBERS'' ACTIVITIES
Samina Ahmed was a Managing the Atom Postdoctoral Fellow this year. She participated in a crisis simulation exercise entitled "International Game ''99: Crisis in South Asia," held by the United States Naval War College in collaboration with the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, January 28-30, 1999. She presented a paper entitled "South Asia''s Nuclear Dilemma" at a conference arranged by the Weatherhead Center in February. Additionally, she presented a paper at a conference at the Center for Asian Studies at the University of Texas at Austin, entitled "Testing Times: India, Pakistan, China, and the United States after May 1998," March 6, 1999. Ahmed served as a discussant of the Bangladesh and Pakistan papers at the second workshop of the East-West Center, University of Hawaii''s project, the "State and the Soldier in Asia: Investigating Change and Continuity in Civil-Military Relations." The workshop was organized jointly by the East-West Center and the Institute of Security and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, April 14-17, 1999. She also served as a panel member on Lateline''s report entitled "Nuclear South Asia and the Kashmir Crisis," ABC TV (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) on June 2, 1999.
Clifford Bob''s activities during the past year at BCSIA included the following: On April 15, 1999, the New York Times published his Letter to the Editor on the Kosovo crisis, and he appeared three times in the spring on CNN & Co. and once on CNN International''s Insight program as a commentator on Kosovo and the Kosovo Liberation Army. Throughout the year he was revising his book manuscript "The Marketing of Rebellion: Political Insurgencies, International Media, and the Growth of Transnational Support" for Cornell University Press. In addition, he is revising and resubmitting his article "The Marketing of Rebellion in Global Civil Society" for World Politics. In September, he presented a paper entitled "Constructing Transnational Communities" at the American Political Science Association (APSA) annual meeting, Comparative Politics of Developing Nations division, panel on "Transnational Communities and Domestic Politics." APSA''s Comparative Politics of Developing Nations division also accepted his paper proposal, "The Political Origins of the Rule of Law: Evidence from the Developing World" for the September 1999 annual meeting. He spent significant time conducting research on this topic this year. Finally, he was asked to write a chapter entitled "Transparency and the Internationalization of Internal Conflict" for Fishbowl Diplomacy: Power and Conflict in the Age of Transparency, edited by Bernard I. Finel and Kristin M. Lord, to be published by St. Martin''s Press; he is currently writing the chapter.
Ashton B. Carter during 1998-99 served as the Ford Foundation Professor of Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government. In this capacity he designed and taught a class on American National Security Policy. This course analyzed the dangers to American national security in the post-Cold War era and the policy options available to reduce those dangers. The course encompassed military, diplomatic, and intelligence functions and agencies of the U.S. government. This marked the second time Dr. Carter taught this course, and this time he was joined by Dr. John P. White, former Deputy Secretary of Defense and now Lecturer in Public Policy at the Kennedy School, who acted as co-professor. Dr. Carter then joined Dr. White in developing and teaching a new course in the spring semester on American National Security Organization and Management. This course focused on the leadership, management, and structure of the U.S. defense establishment and how it can adapt to meet the 21st century challenges to security examined in American National Security Policy.
Dr. Carter for the second time cochaired Spring Exercise, an integral part of the core curriculum for first-year students in the Master in Public Policy program. Patterned on the "moot court" practice of many law schools, Spring Exercise is designed to get students out of the classroom and put them into a simulated "real-world" setting where they apply what they have learned in their courses to a contemporary public problem. Medicare reform was the topic for this year''s Spring Exercise. The culmination of the two-week exercise was a simulated briefing to the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, Donna Shalala.
Dr. Carter represented the Kennedy School at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 28-February 3, 1999, where he discussed the problem of Catastrophic Terrorism.
In addition to his teaching responsibilities in 1998- 99, Dr. Carter was sworn in on November 23, 1998, as Special Advisor to the Clinton Administration''s North Korea Policy Review. The Clinton Administration asked William J. Perry, former Secretary of Defense and co-Director with Dr. Carter of the Preventive Defense Project (see below), to act as Policy Coordinator and conduct a no-holds-barred review of U.S. policy toward the Democratic Peoples'' Republic of Korea. Dr. Perry asked Dr. Carter to act as Special Advisor, and in this capacity Dr. Carter played a major role in reviewing every aspect of U.S. policy on North Korea, traveled extensively to consult with U.S. allies and states in Northeast Asia, crafted policy recommendations for the Administration, and in May 1999 visited Pyongyang, North Korea, to meet with its leadership. The official review is expected to be released by mid-September 1999.
When not in Pyongyang, Dr. Carter co-directs with William Perry the Preventive Defense Project, a research collaboration of Stanford and Harvard Universities that designs and promotes security policies aimed at preventing the emergence of major new threats to the United States. The project concentrates on forging productive security partnerships with Russia and its neighbors, dealing with the lethal legacy of Cold War weapons of mass destruction, engaging an awakening China, and countering proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and grand terrorism. The Preventive Defense Project seeks to contribute to these objectives through invention of new policy approaches reflecting preventive defense, intensive personal interaction with defense and military leaders around the world, and the establishment of highly informed but nongovernmental Track II initiatives that explore new possibilities for international agreement. In March 1999, Dr. Carter and Dr. Perry coauthored a book that describes these ideas in detail and that prescribes a new security strategy for the United States: Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America, Brookings Institution Press, 1999. To celebrate the book''s publication and to further communicate the policies and programs contained in it, several events were held in Washington, D.C. and elsewhere such as book signings, press gatherings, a meeting at the National Press Club, and a book party at BCSIA co-hosted by Preventive Defense and the Council on Foreign Relations where General John Shalikashvili, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Senior Advisor to the Preventive Defense Project, delivered opening remarks.
In areas beyond teaching and the Preventive Defense Project, Dr. Carter continues to serve Department of Defense (DOD) as an advisor to the Secretary of Defense and as a member of DOD Defense Policy Board, Defense Science Board, Threat Reduction Advisory Committee, and the Board of Visitors of DOD''s Regional Centers. He also sits on the board of several nonprofit companies including: Mitre, Mitretek, and Lincoln Laboratories. Hilary D. Driscoll served as Research Assistant until June 1999 to the Preventive Defense Project before leaving Harvard to pursue her Ph.D. in Political Science at Oxford. Prior to BCSIA, Hilary worked for the National Democratic Institute of International Affairs, where she spent 1996 in Armenia and Azerbaijan promoting democratic development. While abroad, Hilary worked with political parties, parliamentarians, and civic organizations in an effort to strengthen democratic institutions. Hilary has a B.A. in Political Science and Russian Studies from Williams College.
Colin Elman in the past year wrote four chapters of, and completed, his doctoral thesis, "The Logic of Emulation: The Diffusion of Military Practices in the International System." Following a successful defense, he received his Ph.D. from Columbia University. In addition to finishing his doctorate, he spent time working on other research, in particular making progress on three collaborative projects.
During 1998-99 Colin, with Miriam Fendius Elman, completed their co-edited International History and Politics, which is forthcoming from MIT Press. In this book, a group of distinguished historians and political scientists take stock of the differences and similarities between their respective disciplines, present a variety of viewpoints on the feasibility of cross-fertilization between them, and reflect on the ways in which their disciplinary training has influenced how they study particular international events. The book explores ways in which scholars from the fields of history and political science can learn from one another while recognizing some of the nontrivial obstacles that divide them.
The Elmans'' second edited book project, "Progress in International Relations Theory" (PIRT), got off to a very good start. At a conference held in Scottsdale, Arizona, in January 1999, Colin presented a coauthored paper, which also served as the instructions to the conference participants. PIRT also forms the basis for three articles in progress: "Appraising Neo-realism"; "The Methodology of Scientific Research Programs: How Not to Be Lakatos Intolerant"; and "Be Careful What You Wish For: Why International Relations Will Miss the ''ISMS.''"This year, Colin started a collaborative project with John Vasquez, Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. "Realism and the Balance of Power: A New Debate" builds on the American Political Science Review Forum to which they contributed. The project formed the basis of well-attended panels that the Elmans organized at the 1998 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association and the 1999 annual meeting of the International Studies Association. In addition to their APSR Forum, the volume will contain an introduction coauthored by Colin Elman and Vasquez; and new essays by Jack Levy, Paul Schroeder, Richard Rosecrance, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Zeev Maoz, Charles Glaser, and William Wohlforth.
During 1998-99 Colin reviewed article manuscripts for American Political Science Review, International Security, and Millenium. Additionally, he organized and/or served on panels at several professional meetings; a panel discussant on "Balance of Power Theory: A Progressive or Degenerative Research Program?" at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington, D.C., February 1999; an organizer of, and a participant on "Appraising Realism: The Debate over Progressive vs. Degenerative Research Programs," a roundtable at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, September 1998; a panel discussant on "Emerging Debates in Offense-Defense Theory," at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, September 1998; an organizer and moderator of a symposium with Professor Thomas Schelling at BCSIA.
During 1998-99 Colin also served as a consultant to the Diffusion of Military Knowledge Workshop, and attended their conference at the Joint Center for International and Security Studies, University of California, Davis, February 1998, and was invited to serve as a reviewer for the 1999 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order.
Miriam Fendius Elman, during the 1998-99 academic year, continued to work on several collaborative projects and single-authored works. With Colin Elman, she completed an edited book manuscript slated for the BCSIA Studies in International Security Series with MIT Press.
Miriam also made substantial progress toward the completion of a second edited book that explores the ways in which research programs in the subfield of international relations are evaluated. Drawing on several philosophies of science, the collaborative project assesses how international relations scholars have employed Lakatosian, Kuhnian, and Laudanian approaches to appraising theoretical developments. Toward the completion of the project, she co-organized and cochaired (with Colin Elman) a conference on the topic, entitled "Progress in International Relations Theory," which was held in January 1999. A final manuscript will be submitted to a university press for review in early fall 1999. In addition to these collaborative research activities, she also continued her work on the democratic peace theory, democratization, and the foreign policy effects of democratic governance. She completed minor revisions to an article entitled "The Democratic Peace: What Happened to International Political Economy?", published in the autumn 1998 issue of the Review of International Political Economy. She also prepared and submitted a manuscript entitled "Unpacking Democracy: Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Theories of Democratic Peace" to a peer-reviewed journal. At the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association held in Washington, D.C. in September 1998, an earlier version of this manuscript was awarded the prize for the best paper presented on the domestic sources of foreign policy at the previous year''s annual meeting. Lastly, she made substantial revisions to an additional manuscript, "The International Context of Democratization''" which she plans to submit to a peer-reviewed journal in the Summer of 1999.
In addition, Miriam completed four book reviews and reviewed manuscripts and book proposals for International Security, the Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Oxford University Press, the Woodrow Wilson Center Press, and MIT Press. She also reviewed submissions for the 1999 University of Louisville Grawmeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order.
In April 1999, she traveled to the offices of the Academy for Educational Development in Washington, D.C. to participate on the National Review Panel for the 1999 National Security Education Program, where she evaluated 125 fellowship applications for graduate studies in areas relevant to national security. Miriam also participated as a roundtable chair and a roundtable participant at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association held in Washington, D.C. in September 1998, serving on a panel that appraised realist scholarship in the field and on a panel that evaluated the promotion of democracy in theory and practice. At the International Studies Association held in Washington, D.C. in February 1999, she participated on a roundtable that investigated scientific advance in the democratic peace research program as well as on a roundtable that focused on regional conflict and cooperation. Finally, she participated as a discussant and commentator at the Human Rights Policy Conference held at the John F. Kennedy School of Government in November 1998. During the summer months, Miriam plans to complete the post-copyediting revisions of International History and Politics: Bridges and Boundaries. She will also complete a feature article on the democratic peace debate commissioned by the editors of the International Studies Review. The article will be subject to a final round of reviews in late June 1999.
Richard A. Falkenrath is the principal investigator of the Executive Session on Domestic Preparedness (Department of Justice-funded joint project of BCSIA and the Taubman Center for State and Local Government) and of the Jeddah Forum Project funded out of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and based in the Center for Business and Government. He is also a member of the Nonproliferation Advisory Panel of the Central Intelligence Agency.
This year Falkenrath taught "European Security" in spring 1999; was a PAE Advisor; served as faculty advisor to the John J. McCloy German Scholars Program; and administered a grant on behalf of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies and Program for the Study of Germany and Europe sponsored by the federal government of Germany. He also taught in Executive Programs for Senior Chinese Military Officers and for General Officers of the Russian Federation and the United States; Senior Executive Fellows Program; and the National Security Program.
His major presentations this year include: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, "Protection of Civil Populations against WMD Risks: Scope of Problem and Potential Responses," NATO Workshop on Chemical and Biological Defense and Consequence Management, NATO Headquarters, Brussels, Belgium, July 15-16, 1999; Mendocino High School, Commencement Speech, Mendocino, California, June 15, 1999; New England Public Health Association, "The Threat of Bioterrorism: Public Health Response," 35th Annual Educational Conference and Meeting on Environment and Human Health, North Falmouth, Massachusetts, June 9, 1999. (Awarded the 1999 New England Public Health Association Award for Communication Excellence.); Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism," Seminar XXI Session on Terrorism, Washington, D.C., April 5, 1999; National Governors'' Association, "Domestic Preparedness for Mass-Destruction Terrorism," States'' Terrorism Policy Summit, Williamsburg, Virginia, February 3, 1999; Research Institute of the German Society for Foreign Affairs, "Chemical and Biological Terrorism," New Faces Conference, Chexbres, Switzerland, October 13, 1998; U.S. Naval War College, "Counterterrorism," Naval Commanders Program, Cambridge, Massachusetts, September 11, 1998; U.S. Department of Justice, "Domestic Preparedness for Terrorism," Stakeholders'' Forum of the Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support, Washington, D.C., August 28, 1998; and Intelligence Fellows Program, "Weapons of Mass Destruction," The Aspen Institute, Wye Plantation, August 7, 1998.
Falkenrath has also submitted the article "Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism," for the upcoming publication of the New Faces Conference on "Chemical and Biological Terrorism," sponsored by the Research Institute of the German Society for Foreign Affairs held on October 13, 1998. He has also written "Comment on the National Intelligence Council," NIO/S&T''s Draft NIE on Biological Warfare prepared for the National Intelligence Council, April 12, 1999, and "Pathogenic Globalization," a paper submitted for the "Visions of Governance for the Twenty-first Century," conference, Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, June 24, 1999.
Additionally, he reviewed the proposal, "Defending America: Redefining the Borders of Homeland Defense," submitted to the Smith Richardson Foundation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 1999.Kristine Fringer joined BCSIA in December of 1998 as Faculty Assistant to Richard Falkenrath after completing a Master''s Degree in International Relations and Communications at Boston University in May 1998. Her undergraduate degree is from Tufts University in International Relations. Her areas of study focused on women and economic development in Latin America. She has worked primarily in women''s health and advocacy projects in the Boston area and in Bolivia and Brazil. In her spare time, Kristine is learning to play guitar and works part-time at Ward''s Berry Farm in Sharon.
Peter Grose''s research into American covert actions in eastern Europe is scheduled to be published as a book by Houghton Mifflin in 1999 under the title OPERATION ROLLBACK. Over the past year, in addition to finishing up this heavy chore, Peter produced another of his historical supplements for Foreign Affairs, this one on the 50th anniversary of NATO, following the two previous anniversary sections on the Marshall Plan and the Berlin Airlift. He delivered papers at academic conferences at the Smithsonian and National Archives in Washington, and over the spring paid two visits to Germany and the Czech Republic, giving a paper at the Deutsch-Amerikanisches Zentrum in Stuttgart and participating in an Aspen Conference in Berlin. He also wrote a chapter for a forthcoming Oxford History of the United States and several book reviews for the New York Times.
L. Celeste Johnson is the Coordinator and Research Assistant for the Preventive Defense Project, a joint research project between Harvard and Stanford Universities and co-directed by Dr. William Perry and Dr. Ashton Carter. Celeste is a recent graduate of the Master in Public Policy program at the Kennedy School, and received her B.A. in Political Science from Stanford University. Before coming to Harvard, she worked in the Forces Policy office at the Department of Defense and as a Research Assistant at the Center for International Security and Arms Control at Stanford from 1994 to 1997. In her spare time, Celeste is a budding glider pilot and confirmed Red Sox fan. She also enjoys SCUBA diving, sailing, and the novels of P. G. Wodehouse.
Elizabeth Kier is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington. Her book, Imagining War: French and British Military Doctrine between the Wars (Princeton, N.J. Princeton University Press, 1997) was awarded the 1998 Edgar S. Furniss Book Award for an exceptional contribution to the study of national and international security. She was a SSRC-MacArthur Postdoctoral Fellow in Peace and Security in a Changing World and while at the Belfer Center worked on two projects.
The first project explores the issue of gays and lesbians in the U.S. armed forces and led to three publications: "Homosexuals in the U.S. Military: Open Integration and Combat Effectiveness," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 2 (Fall 1998); "Discrimination and Military Cohesion: An Organizational Perspective," in Beyond Zero Tolerance: Discrimination in Military Culture, edited by Mary Katzenstein and Judith Reppy (Lanham, Rowman and Littlefield, Md.: 1999); and "Rights and Fights: Sexual Orientation and Military Effectiveness," International Security, Vol. 24, No. 1 (Summer 1999). She also gave talks on this project at George Washington University, the University of Chicago, and the Council of Foreign Relations.
The second and larger project focuses on the domestic consequences of war, and in particular examines how mobilization for total war restructures the labor movement and so affects the potential for postwar reform. She gave talks on this project at Harvard and Cornell. In addition, she gave a talk on "Understanding Organizational Culture," at the Intelligence and Policy Seminar at the Kennedy School; participated in the International Studies Associations conference; and served on the fellowship committee for the U.S. Institute of Peace. This summer, she will continue working on the war and reform project and will present her research on this topic at an SSRC-MacArthur conference in New Delhi, India, in August 1999.
The International Security Program Reading Group met five times during the 1998-99 academic year. Participants included BSCIA and Olin fellows, as well as several of the Kennedy School''s national Security Fellow.
Sergei L. Konoplyov, Associate Director of the Harvard Ukrainian National Security Program, served as Acting Director of the Eurasia Foundation for Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova in 1995-96. A former officer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, he served in several military missions in Africa and Latin America. A graduate of the Moscow Military Institute, he also holds a degree from Kyrgyz University in Journalism and a Master''s Degree in Public Administration from the Kennedy School of Government. Since 1998 he has been a member of International Institute of Strategic Studies. Sergei is a contributing author to Monitoring of Foreign and Security Policy of Ukraine published by Center for Peace, Conversion, and Foreign Policy.
Christopher Kukk used the majority of this year at BCSIA to research and write his dissertation. Because of the research that he was able to accomplish during the fellowship year, he was offered an opportunity to publish part of his research on Central Asia in an upcoming Routledge edited volume regarding water in Central Asia. Chris will be a Lecturer in Political Science at Boston College beginning in Fall 1999.
Aaron Lobel completed two draft chapters of his dissertation this year, which deals with the debate in the United States over the failure to anticipate the collapse of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War. He also worked with the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project and as a member of the Caspian Energy Working Group on a soon to be released paper dealing with U.S. interests in Caspian and Russian oil. Finally, he led a study group this semester at the Institute of Politics called "Presidential Decisionmaking and Foreign Policy: The Nature of Judgment."
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, in 1998-99, assumed responsibility for the editorial management of International Security. In this capacity, he solicited manuscripts, coordinated the journal''s review and selection process, provided suggestions for revisions to authors, and supervised the process of editing and producing each issue. He also served as Series Editor of BCSIA Studies in International Security and oversaw the publication of several books in that series. He continued to work on Should America Spread Democracy? A Debate, a book in which he and former BCSIA fellow Christopher Layne present opposing views on U.S. policies to promote democracy internationally. He also reviewed books for the American Political Science Review and the Journal of Cold War Studies.
Lynn-Jones organized and participated in two panels at the September 1998 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association in Boston. First, he argued the case for U.S. efforts to promote democracy at a roundtable on "Promoting Democracy in Theory and Practice." Second, he delivered a paper on "Realism, Security, and Offense-Defense Theories" as part of a panel on "Emerging Debates in Offense-Defense Theory." He gave a talk, "In Defense of Defensive Realism," for a September 1998 ISP Brown Bag Seminar at BCSIA. He spoke on the state of the literature in international peace and security studies at an October 1998 conference on "International Peace and Security, Theory and Practice: What Has Been Written, What Has Not, and Why" at Brown University''s Watson Institute. At the November 1998 annual meeting of the International Security Studies Section (ISSS) of the International Studies Association (ISA) in Monterey, California, Sean gave talks on "Liberalism, Democracy, and American Grand Strategy" and the "Debate between Realists" and was the discussant for a panel on "Terrorism and WMD: Threat and Response." In January 1999, he participated in a conference on "Progress in International Relations Theory" at Arizona State University and gave a paper on "Assessing the Progressiveness of Offense-Defense Theory." At the February 1999 annual ISA convention in Washington, D.C., Sean participated in a roundtable on "Publishing in International Studies" and served as the discussant for a panel on "Intra- and Post-Cold War U.S. Security Dilemmas." In July 1999, he discussed the future of NATO on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation''s "Late Night Live" radio program.
Sean was elected to the Governing Council of the ISSS and chaired its nominating committee. He also continued to serve as a member of the Editorial Board of Security Studies.
Diane J. McCree is Deputy Editor of International Security. Previously she was Production Editor at Blackwell Publishers and a freelance editor for MIT Press, where she worked on books on International Relations and Economics. She graduated from Tufts University and holds an M.A. in International Relations from Georgetown University, with concentrations in Middle East Studies and Arabic. She also studied at the Center for European Studies in Talloires, France.
Ariel Merari has been dedicated this year to working on a book on suicidal terrorism. He finished analyzing data that he brought from Israel, mainly consisting of detailed case studies of suicides in Israel since 1989. The statistical analysis has been followed by an effort to make sense of the findings in two respects: as a psychological phenomenon - to examine terrorist suicides in view of existing theories of suicide, and as a political phenomenon - to analyze the organizational and political factors that affected the perpetrating groups'' decisions to resort to this mode of action.
In addition to working on the terrorist suicide book, Ariel invested time in improving a draft of a large paper on retaliation against state sponsors of terrorism. The longer version of this study has been submitted to BSCIA as an occasional paper and a shorter version will be submitted to International Security.
During this period he has written a paper entitled "Terrorism as a Strategy of Struggle: Past and Future," which will be published in a special issue of Terrorism and Political Violence and also as a chapter in a book to be published by Frank Cass. Another paper, entitled "Attacks on Civil Aviation: Trends and Lessons," appeared this year in a special issue of Terrorism and Political Violence.
This year, Ariel has lectured at several conferences in the United States and abroad. These included: lecture at a conference in Paris on future forms of terrorism, organized by the French Ministry of Defense; a luncheon speech at the United Nations in New York in the framework of a conference of the American Friends of Tel Aviv University; and a lecture on suicidal terrorism at the BCSIA International Security Program''s Brown Bag Seminar - all in October 1998; moderator of an international symposium on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Washington, D.C., in November 1998; a presentation at a panel on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, organized by the Middle East Institute at Harvard, in December 1998; opening keynote lecture at an international conference on "Future Developments in Terrorism" in Cork, Ireland, in March 1999; a public lecture on hostage negotiations at Tufts University and a lecture on retaliation against state sponsors of terrorism at the Olin National Security Seminar, in April 1999; participation in the Israeli-Palestinian Workshop of the Program on International Conflict Analysis and Resolution (Center for International Affairs, Harvard), in April-May 1999; and a lecture on suicidal terrorism at the Council on Foreign Relations, New York, in May 1999. In addition, in November 1998, Ariel held meetings with the Director and Deputy Director of the Argentinean Supreme Court Commission for the Investigation of the Bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, who came to Harvard for this purpose. Karen Motley is Executive Editor of the BCSIA Studies in International Security book series. She joined the journal staff in 1992 after traveling and working in Europe for two years. She did her undergraduate study in Political Science and Art History at the University of Massachusetts.
Kate O''Neill was a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the International Security and Science and Technology Policy Programs until December 1998, when she left to take a teaching position at the University of California, Berkeley. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University. Her main research project focuses on the international trade in hazardous wastes among Organization for Cooperation and Development countries, comparing their national systems of environmental regulation to explain trading practices, and waste importation specifically. Her current research interests include comparative risk analysis, comparative environmental policy change, and the international politics of nuclear waste management.
Samantha Power is the Executive Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy of the John F. Kennedy School of Government. She also served as Director of the Human Rights Initiative, the precursor to the Carr Center. From 1993 to1996, Power covered the wars in the former Yugoslavia as a reporter for the U.S. News and World Report, and the Economist. In 1996 she joined the International Crisis Group as a political analyst, helping launch the organization in Bosnia.
She is currently writing a book examining American responses to genocide since the Holocaust. The book (funded by a fellowship from the Open Society Institute) will describe the growth of Holocaust awareness in the United States and then explore - and attempt to explain - the reluctance of American policymakers, military leaders, and citizens to respond robustly to mass atrocity. She is a frequent contributor to the New Republic and is the author of Breakdown in the Balkans (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1993), a 150 page chronology of the disintegration of Yugoslavia. She is a graduate of Yale University and Harvard Law School, and moved to the United States from Ireland in 1979.
Mary Elise Sarotte spent the academic year 1998-99 as a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the International Security Program. Her most important project during the year was the revision of her dissertation for publication. The dissertation, "Speaking Civilly with the Devil: East Germany, Ostpolitik, and Superpower Détente," earned her the degree of Ph.D. in History from Yale University. It received the highest possible marks from all of its readers (and was the only dissertation to do so at that faculty vote). Her work focuses on the question of whether it is more effective to use confrontation or engagement in dealing with dictators. Dr. Sarotte took an extended research trip abroad in September to conduct additional research for this manuscript. Her study will appear as a book in John Lewis Gaddis''s "New Cold War History" series with the University of North Carolina Press in autumn 2000. Gaddis will write a preface and the book will appear simultaneously in hardcover and paperback.
In addition to the work on her book manuscript, Dr. Sarotte wrote various shorter pieces and spoke at several conferences. Parts of her book manuscript will appear as a working paper with the Cold War International History Project. Book reviews she authored will be published by both German Studies Review and Deutschland Archiv. She also has two book chapters in edited volumes in press. Dr. Sarotte spoke at the German Studies Association National Conference (in October 1998, in Salt Lake City); at the Aspen Institute (in December 1998, in Berlin); at a Humboldt Foundation conference (in March 1999, in Bamberg); at a 21st Century Trust conference (in March 1999, in Oxford); at a Yale University conference on partition in history (in April 1999, in New Haven); and at a major conference sponsored by the German government ten years after the fall of the Berlin Wall (in May 1999, in Berlin).
In the course of the year, Dr. Sarotte received job offers from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) and the University of San Diego. She also became a national finalist for the White House Fellowship. She has deferred her White House Fellowship application until next year, however, in order to accept the offer from IISS for the academic year 1999-00.
Tom Sauer spent the bulk of this year working on his doctoral thesis on U.S. nuclear weapons policy after the end of the Cold War to be submitted at the Catholic University of Leuven (Belgium). The goal of the thesis is first to describe and evaluate U.S. nuclear weapons policy in the post-Cold War period. It examines force structure, declaratory and operational policy. Second, the work attempts to explain why U.S. policy did not change as much as one could have expected. The Nuclear Posture Review held during the first Clinton Administration will be of particular interest in this regard. In January 1999, he conducted interviews at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. He also attended the 94th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association "Community, Communities, and Politics," held September 1998 in Boston.In fall 1998, his book Nuclear Arms Control: Nuclear Deterrence in the Post-Cold War Period was published by Macmillan/St. Martin''s Press.
Taylor B. Seybolt spent the 1998-99 academic year as a International Security Program Postdoctoral Research Fellow affiliated with the Belfer Center''s Human Rights Initiative. In September he defended his dissertation, "Knights in Shining Armor? When Humanitarian Military Intervention Works and When It Does Not," in the MIT Political Science Department. Since then he has devoted most of his time to two projects. One is an article on the possibility of stopping the 1994 genocide in Rwanda after the killing began. It challenges two arguments that the task would not have been very hard. It concludes that military responses to human crises, while sometimes justified, are extraordinarily difficult to carry out. Policymakers must be aware of the costs and generate a public willingness to bear them if future interventions are to do more good than harm. The second project provides a theoretical framework for analyzing and improving coordination among organizations during responses to humanitarian emergencies. It borrows from business management literature, a branch of organization theory called interorganizational network analysis. Network analysis is an alternative to hierarchical and market-oriented approaches to management. The fruits of this work will appear as the introductory chapter to a volume of case studies on organizational coordination in several countries, and as a stand-alone article.
Over the course of the year, Taylor gave talks on humanitarian intervention and participated in roundtable discussions on genocide and peacekeeping at Harvard, MIT, Brown University, and the annual meeting of the International Studies Association - Northeast. He wrote a book review of David Callahan''s Unwinnable Wars for the International History Review (March 1999), and submitted to International Studies Quarterly an article coauthored with Daniel Byman, entitled "Intervention and Communal Civil Wars: Problems and Approaches."
In August, Taylor will begin work at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute as the Project Leader for the new Armed Conflicts and Military Responses Project.
Alison Smith holds a Master''s degree in International Law from Australian National University and joined the Belfer Center as a Research Assistant for the Human Rights Initiative. In her research and writings, she has focused on the legal aspects of some human rights issues. During the summer of 1999, while acting as a human rights observer in Kosovo, Alison decided to take a position with an organization working in Kosovo on human rights issues.
Jessica Stern spent most of her time this year researching a new book on religious extremism and terrorism, including talking to members of militant religious groups in the Middle East, South Asia, and the United States. Her publications include "The Prospects for Domestic Bioterror," Emerging Infectious Diseases (July-August 1999); The Ultimate Terrorists (Harvard University Press, 1999); and "Apocalypse Never, Poison Possible," Survival (Winter 1999).
Rebecca Storo is the Project Coordinator for the Executive Session on Domestic Preparedness, an interdisciplinary project that will assist the U.S. government in the process of preparing for the threat of terrorism within its borders. Rebecca joined the Kennedy School''s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs in 1996 as the faculty assistant to William Clark and Edward Parson. Prior to this, she was employed as an administrative assistant by Mentor Graphics Corporation in Waltham, Massachusetts. She earned her bachelor''s degree in psychology from Bates College in 1994.
Ingrid Tamm-Grudin is a Research Assistant at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy. She has an M.A. in History from Emory University and taught in Poland prior to coming to the Belfer Center. She taught an adult learning course in Polish history at Hebrew College in the spring of 1999.
James Walsh''s research activities this year focus on two principal areas: nuclear decisionmaking and the Cold War legacy of unsafeguarded nuclear materials in the former Soviet Union. With regard to nuclear decisionmaking, the primary objective of this research is to understand how and why countries make choices about nuclear weapons. Understanding the factors that influence nuclear choices will allow the design of more effective policy tools for preventing the proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.
His investigation of nuclear decisionmaking begins with an empirical puzzle: the nuclear age has produced relatively few nuclear weapons states - far fewer than scholars and policymakers predicted. An overwhelming majority of nuclear-capable countries opted to forgo nuclear weapons, and over five decades, the rate of proliferation had actually declined. Why are there so few nuclear weapons states? What factors lead states to forgo the most powerful weapon in the history of human warfare? What prevents the more committed countries from achieving their aims?
This past year, work on the study was finished with the completion of four chapters, including chapters on Australia, Egypt, and on the policy and theoretical implications of the results. His research and writing on nuclear decision making was not limited to this study, however. Walsh''s activities on related studies of nuclear decisionmaking included work on a set of smaller efforts focusing on Italy, Indonesia, South Asia, and Iran. The Italian case looks at Italy''s attempts to acquire nuclear weapons in the period from 1955 to 1975. During this past year, work centered on the translation of Italian documents and source materials.
The Indonesian case examines Indonesia''s behavior in 1964 and 1965. Vipin Gupta, of Sandia National Laboratory, and Walsh are combining archival data with satellite reconnaissance to investigate the possibility that Indonesia planned to conduct a nuclear weapons test in the fall of 1965. This past year both Dr. Gupta and Walsh traveled to Washington for work at the National Archives, which houses both documents and declassified satellite imagery. A journal article will be submitted for publication in the fall.
The work on South Asia took a different form. It took the lessons learned from earlier studies of nuclear decisionmaking and applied them to the problem of the Indian and Pakistani tests of 1998. The results of the analysis were presented at the U.S.-Japan Nuclear Non-Proliferation Dialogue in Tokyo in March. They suggest that the traditional proliferation model, with its emphasis on external threats and technological capability, does not fit the South Asian case. An alternative model and set of policy options was outlined.
A profile of Iranian nuclear decisionmaking was begun this June and will continue through next year.
In the fall, Walsh''s role will be to support and act as rapporteur for a new BCSIA working group on "loose nukes" and fissile material. The working group will consist of BCSIA and area scholars, and it will have two objectives. The first is to review the first wave of "loose nukes" and nuclear material programs that began in the early 1990s in the wake of Soviet Nuclear Fission. That includes, for example, the efforts under the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, projects on MPC&A , HEU buy-outs, the ISTC, and the other efforts by Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and other relevant policy actors. The second task is to generate new policy alternatives.
Associates
Clark Abt conducted research on electric vehicles and solar-electric buildings in South Africa in July of 1998. He continued additional research in South Africa in December where he lectured at the University of Pretoria on Energy and Environment, contributed to a report on Electric Vehicles for Eskom, and met with government officials.
He prepared and presented a paper at United Nations'' Project Link''s world economic conference in Rio de Janeiro on Solar-Powered Economic Growth of Brazil. He also participated in the Electric Vehicle Symposium in Brussels in October and the World Bank Village Power symposium in Washington, D.C. In March Clark wrote and presented two papers at the Eastern Economics Association''s annual meeting: "Solar-Driven Economic Growth in Africa, Brazil, and China," and "Fast, Safe, and Fair Economic Growth."
He organized an emergency Kosovo Albanian Refugee Relief effort in April, including the collection and air shipment of 25,000 pounds of children''s and women''s clothing, and arranged distribution in refugee camps in Albania through the Albanian Orthodox Church. During April and May he organized a Harvard-MIT Faculty Seminar of eight dinner sessions on Kosovo Conflict Policy, cochaired with Professor Ernest May.Kristen Cashin spent the year assisting Owen Coté, conducting research on competing theories of innovation, with particular emphasis on the U.S. military and future technology innovations.
Walter C. Clemens, Jr. is currently working to complete two books in 1999 to be published in 2000. The first, entitled America in the World, 1900-2025: Achievements, Failures, Alternative Scenarios, will be published by St. Martin''s Press. The second, The Baltic Miracle: Complexity Theory and European Security, will be published by Rowman and Littlefield. During the summer of 1999, he was a research fellow at Södertörns University College in Sweden.
Charles Cogan published a book, Alliés éternels, amis ombrageux: les Etats-Unis et la France depuis 1940, with Editions Bruylant. He also wrote several articles and book chapters in addition to giving a BCSIA seminar during the spring of 1999, based on his article, "Wye River, Long Fleuve: The CIA, the PLO, and the Peace Process," published in the Mediterranean Quarterly.
Owen R. Coté Jr.''s primary research is on the sources of innovation in military doctrine. He is writing a book that compares competing theories of innovation. Additionally, he is involved in a number of more policy relevant debates about future innovations, particularly in the Navy.
Helen Fein, during the academic year 1998-99, continued her research, talking and writing on the prevention of genocide. She gave a seminar at the Belfer Center and participated in a conference at Drew University in October 1998; the latter leading to an essay, "The Three P''s of Genocide Prevention…" to appear in a forthcoming book edited by Neal Riemer, The Prevention of Genocide: Mission Impossible (Praeger, 1999). On behalf of the Institute for the Study of Genocide (ISG), Helen convened a conference (with funding from the United States Institute for Peace) in New York in December 1998, "Ever Again? Evaluating the United Nations Genocide Convention on Its Fiftieth Anniversary and Proposals to Activate the Convention." She co-edited a monograph by the same name published by the ISG in April 1999. Talking on several related themes, she gave other seminars and presentations at Columbia University, Harvard University, and Clark University during the year. Also she began a new book, "Wresting Human Rights/ Arresting Human Wrongs," with some assistance for funding a research assistant from the American Sociological Association to update a study of human rights violations and democracy in 1987 for 1997.
Philip Fellman, during the past year, provided advice and instruction on strategic planning to the Ministry of the Interior of the United Arab Emirates. He also provided advice and counsel on counterterrorism and advised on two specific cases for the Dubai (UAE) police force. Both cases were brought to a successful conclusion. He has continued research on economic integration in the European Union, visiting Prague, Czech Republic, and attending the annual meeting of the Academy of International Business in Vienna, Austria. This summer he published the results of his airline industry research in International Studies Notes (the official publication of the International Studies Association), "Olympic Airways and the Problem of Subsidization in the Single European Market." He is currently researching the effects of taxation and the problems of privatization in Kazakstan.
Randall Forsberg continued this year to work on two ongoing research projects: the IDDS Almanac of World Arms Holdings, Production, and Trade, which will be published on CD starting in the autumn of 1999; and an analysis of U.S. military spending by mission, which will result in an article and probably a book. In association with Dr. Jonathan Dean and Dr. Saul Mendlovitz, she helped develop a public education campaign called "Global Action to Prevent War", and published an article with the same title in the Boston Review. With Dr. Elise Boulding, Forsberg coauthored a seminar series and resulting book, Abolishing War: Cultures and Institutions, published by the Boston Research Center for the 21st Century. She also served on a several boards, and on the Director''s Advisory Committee of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.
Peter M. Haas continued his ongoing research on the evolution of multilateral environmental governance. He has recently had several works accepted for publication including: "Choosing to Comply," in Dinah Shelton, ed., Compliance with Soft Law (London: Oxford University Press, forthcoming); "International Institutions and Social Learning in the Management of Global Environmental Risks," Policy Studies Journal (2000); and "Epistemic Communities," for Routledge''s Encyclopedia of International Political Economy (forthcoming). Peter also gave presentations at Nuffield College, Oxford University, and Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
Robert E. Hunter continued his research work on Europe, focusing on security issues in their broadest dimensions, including both NATO and the European Union. A highlight of his publications program was his article on "Maximizing NATO" in the special "NATO 50th anniversary" section of Foreign Affairs (May/June 1999). He also continued research on his book about the transformation of NATO. Ambassador Hunter''s research included frequent travel, conferences, and speeches in Europe, notably Brussels, London, Munich, Lisbon, Moscow, Sochi, Ankara, Istanbul, Prague, Bratislava, and Vilnius.
Dan Lindley received his Bachelor of Arts degree in International Relations and French from Tufts University in 1983. He worked for Congressman Ratchford, the Center for Defense Information, the Federation of American Scientists, and the Brookings Institution before starting graduate school at MIT. His dissertation was Transparency and the Effectiveness of Security Regimes: A Study of Concert of Europe Crisis Management and United Nations Peacekeeping. He has published and spoken on U.N. peacekeeping, internal conflict, the Cyprus problem and Greco-Turkish relations, collective security, the U.S. intervention in Panama, and SDI contracting. He was a lecturer at MIT and an associate fellow in the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. He started as an assistant professor in the department of Government and International Studies at the University of Notre Dame in Fall, 1999. During 1998-99, Lindley was a lecturer at M.I.T. and taught American Foreign Policy. He submitted "U.N. Peacekeeping and Information Management: Institutional Design, Theory, and Practice," prepared under the auspices of the Rational International Institutions Project at the University of Chicago led by professors Charles Lipson and Duncan Snidal and UCLA professor Barbara Koremenos. Papers were presented in Chicago in May and at APSA in September. He made the following presentations: "Do Buffer Zones Work? A Theoretical and Practical Assessment," at ISA, February 1999; Peace Studies Program, Cornell University, March 1999; CSIA Friday Seminar, Harvard University, April 1999; and MIT Security Studies Program, May 1999; Participant, Roundtable on Cyprus: Recent Developments, Kokkalis Program on Southeastern and East-Central Europe, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, March 1999; Chair and Discussant, "Democratic Peace and International Conflict," ISA, Washington, DC, February 1999; Chair and Discussant, "After Structure: The Role of Discourse in International Theory," Northeastern Political Science Association, Boston, MA, November 1999; "Transparency and the Biological Weapons Convention," Association for Politics and the Life Sciences, Boston, MA, September 1998.
Olya Oliker, In her role as Coordinator of the Harvard University Project on Ukrainian Security, brought several speakers to Harvard to lead seminars last year, including Ambassador William Miller, MG (ret.) Nicholas Krawciw, and Dr. Sherman Garnett. Furthermore, in January, several key contributions to the Project''s April 1998 Workshop on Ukraine-NATO relations were published by the Preventive Defense Project of Harvard University and Stanford University as Fulfilling the Promise: Building an Enduring Security Partnership Between Ukraine and NATO, edited by Ashton B. Carter, Steven E. Miller, and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall. Ms. Oliker also conducted related research on Ukrainian security issues, including relations with the United States and NATO, military reform, and energy security issues under the auspices of the Project. Having concluded her tenure as Project Coordinator, Ms. Oliker has relocated to Washington, D.C. where she accepted a position at the Washington office of RAND. There, she focuses on U.S. military diplomacy; Russian and Ukrainian security and economic development; nonproliferation, and related issues. She also continues to make progress on her work towards a Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Barry R. Posen''s recent research projects include Innovation in the U.S. Army 1974-84; the Kosovo War, Causes, Conduct, and Consequences; and French Army Organization and Doctrine in the 1930s. Posen also produced a chapter for Victor Utgoff''s forthcoming edited volume, U.S. Security Policy in a Nuclear-Armed World, or What If Iraq Had Had Nuclear Weapons?
Elizabeth Rogers recently coauthored a paper, "Targeted Financial Sanction: Problems and Prospects," with George Lopez and David Cortright. The article will be submitted for journal review in the fall of 1999. Currently, she is working on a paper tentatively titled, "Using Economic Sanctions to Improve Human Rights: An Evaluation." A version of this paper will be delivered at the 2000 International Studies Association Convention.
Jack Ruina''s research interests currently include nuclear policy issues, arms control, and conflict resolution in the Middle East. He recently wrote "The Problem of Conversion in the U.S. Military Electronics Industry," in Judith Reppy, ed., Conversion of Military R&D (London: Macmillan Press, 1998).
Sarah Sewall''s research has focused on the relationship of the International Criminal Court to U.S. national security, and it is expected that the book she is currently editing will be published later this year. She is also researching the role of nongovernmental organizations in international politics, as well as the restructuring of the national security budget/strategy process.
Bernard Trainor became a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His 1998-99 research writing and lecturing have dealt primarily with civil-military relations and use of force in pursuit of foreign policy objectives.
Astrid S. Tuminez, this past year, published two policy memos for the Harvard Project on New Approaches to Russian Security - one on Russia and Serbia in Kosovo, and another on management of Russian companies. She also finished a book, which will be published by Rowman and Littlefield in November 1999, entitled Russian Nationalism Since 1856: Fragmented Ideology and the Making of Foreign Policy. In the coming year, she will be directing a Russia Study Group at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, and will likely publish a monograph on a topic yet to be chosen (on Russia''s political economy).
Stephen Van Evera in July 1999 published Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict with Cornell University Press. During this year he worked on a sequel, Causes of War: Misperception and the Roots of Conflict.
David Wright over the past year continued to analyze the North Korean missile program, especially following its Taepodong-1 missile launch over Japan last fall. In conjunction with this, he has written a paper that makes the case for a U.S. policy of engagement with North Korea, and lays out what the U.S. goals in such negotiations might be and what measures the United States could take to the table as part of such negotiations. Also related to this work, in the fall he published a preliminary analysis of the Pakistani Ghauri missile test of Spring 1998, since the Ghauri is believed to be a North Korean Nodong missile. David has also continued to do research on U.S. missile defense programs. In May 1999, he testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the state of technical readiness of a U.S. national missile defense program. As part of this work, he has been involved in a technical analysis of possible countermeasures to the proposed national missile defense system.
Volume 23, Number 1 (Summer 1998)
Gail W. Lapidus, "Contested Sovereignty: The Tragedy of Chechnya"
Kimberly Ann Elliott, "The Sanctions Glass: Half Full or Completely Empty?"Robert A. Pape, "Why Economic Sanctions Still Do Not Work"
Joseph Lepgold, "NATO''s Post-Cold War Collective Action Problem"Kurt Dassel, "Civilians, Soldiers, and Strife: Domestic Sources of International Aggression"Michael C. Desch, "Culture Clash: Assessing the Importance of Ideas in Security Studies"Ted Hopf, "The Promise of Constructivism in International Relations Theory"
Volume 23, Number 2 (Fall 1998)
Elizabeth Kier, "Homosexuals in the U.S. Military: Open Integration and Combat Effectiveness"
Charles A. Kupchan, "After Pax Americana: Benign Power, Regional Integration, and the Sources of a Stable Multipolarity"
Colin H. Kahl, "Population Growth, Environmental Degradation, and State-Sponsored Violence: The Case of Kenya, 1991-93"
Chaim D. Kaufmann, "When All Else Fails: Ethnic Population Transfers and Partitions in the Twentieth Century"
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, "Realism and America''s Rise: A Review Essay"
Ian Davidson and Philip H. Gordon, "Assessing European Foreign Policy"
David A. Baldwin and Robert A. Pape, "Evaluating Economic Sanctions" Volume 23, Number 3 (Winter 1998/99)
Ole R. Holsti, "A Widening Gap between the Military and Civilian Society? Some Evidence, 1976-96"
G. John Ikenberry, "Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order"
Robert J. Art, "Geopolitics Updated: The Strategy of Selective Engagement"
Erica Strecker Downs and Phillip C. Saunders, "Legitimacy and the Limits of Nationalism: China and the Diaoyu Islands"
John M. Owen, IV, "The Canon and the Cannon: A Review Essay"
James W. Davis, Jr., Bernard I. Finel, Stacie E. Goddard, Stephen Van Evera, and Charles L. Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, "Taking Offense at Offense-Defense Theory"
Volume 23, Number 4 (Spring 1999)
Stephen M. Walt, "Rigor or Rigor Mortis? Rational Choice and Security Studies"
Thomas J. Christensen, "China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia
Robert S. Ross, "The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-first Century"
Christopher S. Parker, "New Weapons for Old Problems: Conventional Proliferation and Military Effectiveness in Developing States"
Å umit Ganguly, "India''s Pathway to Pokhran II: The Prospects and Sources of New Delhi''s Nuclear Weapons Program"
Samina Ahmed, "Pakistan''s Nuclear Weapons Program: Turning Points and Nuclear Choices"
BCSIA Studies in International Security
Andrew Bennett, Condemned to Repetition? The Rise and Fall of Soviet-Russian Military Interventionism, 1973-1997 (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999)
Joshua Lederberg, ed., Biological Weapons: Limiting the Threat (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999)
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, with Christopher Layne, Should America Spread Democracy? A Debate (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, forthcoming 1999)
Devin T. Hagerty, The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons from South Asia (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1998)
International Security Readers
America''s Strategic Choices
Theories of War and Peace
International Security Discussion PapersKate O''Neill, "Not Getting to Go: Recent Experience in International Cooperation over the Management of Spent Nuclear Reactor Fuel" (No. 98-22)
Richard Grant, "Power and Prosperity: Challenges and Opportunities for Small States" (No. 99-03)
BOOKS AND REPORTS
Ashton B. Carter, with Steven E. Miller and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, Fulfilling the Promise: Building an Enduring Security Relationship between Ukraine and NATO, Preventive Defense Project publications, Vol. 1, No. 4 (1998)
Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1999)
Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., International History and Politics: Bridges and Boundaries (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, forthcoming 1999)
Peter Grose, OPERATION ROLLBACK (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, forthcoming 1999)
Emily Landau, Rapporteur, "Challenges to Global and Middle East Security," conference report from BCSIA-JCSS International Conference, June 15-16, 1998, Herzlia Beach, Israel
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, "Realism and Security Studies," in Craig Snyder, ed., Contemporary Security Studies (London: Macmillan, forthcoming 1999)
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, with Christopher Layne, Should America Spread Democracy? A Debate (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, forthcoming 1999)
Tom Sauer, Nuclear Arms Control: Nuclear Deterrence in the Post-Cold War Period (New York: St. Martin''s Press, 1998)
Jessica Eve Stern, The Ultimate Terrorists (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1999) ARTICLES, BOOK CHAPTERS, AND REVIEWS
Samina Ahmed, "Dangerous Games," Newsline, June 1999, pp. 32-33
Samina Ahmed, "Diplomatic Fiasco," Newsline, July 1999, pp. 37-38
Samina Ahmed, "Pakistan''s Nuclear Weapons Program: Moving Forward or Tactical Retreat?" in Å umit Ganguly, ed., Testing Times: India, Pakistan, China, and the United States after May 1998 (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, forthcoming 1999)
Samina Ahmed, "Security Dilemmas of a Nuclear Pakistan," in Devesh Kapur, ed., South Asia''s Nuclear Dilemma (Cambridge, Mass.: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, forthcoming 1999)
Ashton B. Carter, John Deutch, and Philip Zelikow, "Catastrophic Terrorism: Tackling the New Danger," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No. 6 (November/December 1998)
Ashton B. Carter, with Steven E. Miller and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, Fulfilling the Promise: Building an Enduring Security Relationship between Ukraine and NATO, Preventive Defense Project publications, Vol. 1, No. 4, (1998)
Ashton B. Carter, with William J. Perry, and Hilary D. Driscoll, "Defining NATO''s Purpose," in Susan Eisenhower, ed., NATO at Fifty: Perspectives on the Future of the Atlantic Alliance (Washington, D.C.: Center for Political and Strategic Studies, 1999)
Ashton B. Carter, with L. Celeste Johnson, "Beyond the Counterproliferation Initiative to a ''Revolution in Counterproliferation Affairs,''" National Security Studies Quarterly (forthcoming 1999)
Miriam Fendius Elman, "The Democratic Peace: What Happened to International Political Economy?" Review of International Political Economy, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Autumn 1998)
Richard A. Falkenrath, "Confronting Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Autumn 1998). The ensuing debate over this article continued in "WMD Terrorism: An Exchange," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Winter 1998/99)
Richard A. Falkenrath, "Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism," article submitted for the upcoming publication of the New Faces Conference on "Chemical and Biological Terrorism," sponsored by the Research Institute of the German Society for Foreign Affairs held on October 13, 1998Elizabeth Kier, "Discrimination and Military Cohesion: An Organizational Perspective," in Mary Katzenstein and Judith Reppy, eds., Beyond Zero Tolerance: Discrimination in Military Culture (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999)
Elizabeth Kier, "Homosexuals in the U.S. Military: Open Integration and Combat Effectiveness," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 2 (Fall 1998)
Elizabeth Kier, "Rights and Fights: Sexual Orientation and Military Effectiveness," International Security, Vol. 24, No. 1 (Summer 1999)
Sergei Konoplyov, coauthor, Monitoring of Foreign and Security Policy of Ukraine, quarterly journal published by Center for Peace, Conversion and Foreign Policy, Kiev, Ukraine
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, "Preface," in Michael E. Brown, Owen R. Coté, Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller, eds., Theories of War and Peace (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1998)
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, "Realism and America''s Rise: A Review Essay [of Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America''s World Role]," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 2 (Fall 1998)
Sean M. Lynn-Jones, "Realism and Security Studies," in Craig A. Snyder, ed., Contemporary Security Studies (London: Macmillan, forthcoming 1999)
Ariel Merari, "Attacks on Civil Aviation: Trends and Lessons" Terrorism and Political Violence, Vol. 10, No. 3 (1998), special issue for the tenth anniversary of the midair bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland
Ariel Merari, "Terrorism as a Strategy of Struggle: Past and Future," Terrorism and Political Violence, Vol. 11, No. 4 (1999), special issue to be published for the turn of the century
Steven E. Miller, "The Debate on Nuclear Abolition," paper published in the conference report for "Nuclear Disarmament, Safe Disposal of Nuclear Materials, or New Weapons Developments: Where Are the National Laboratories Going?" Landau Network-Centro Volta, Villa Elba, Como, Italy, July 1998 Steven E. Miller, "Nuclear Weapons: The Abolitionist Upsurge," in International Institute of Strategic Studies, Strategic Survey, 1998-1999 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998)
Steven E. Miller and Ryukichi Imai, "U.S.-Japan Joint Workshop to Avoid Nuclear Anarchy," Asia-Pacific Review, Vol. 5, No. 2 (1998), pp. 145-164
Samantha Power, "Global News Stand: International Affairs," Foreign Policy, Fall 1999
Samantha Power, "Kosovo Dispatch: Breathing Room," New Republic, August 9, 1999
Samantha Power, "The Real Meaning of Genocide," Boston Globe, September 14, 1998
Samantha Power, "To Suffer by Comparison," Daedalus, Vol. 128, No. 2 (Spring 1999)
Samantha Power, "The United States and Genocide Prevention: No Justice without Risk," Brown Journal of World Affairs, Vol. VI, No. 1 (Winter/Spring 1999)
Samantha Power, "Who Knew: Why Everyone Guessed Wrong about Kosovo," New Republic, May 3, 1999
Taylor Seybolt, review of David Callahan, Unwinnable Wars, in International History Review, Vol. 21, No. 1 (March 1999)
Jessica Eve Stern, "The Prospects for Domestic Bioterror," Emerging Infectious Diseases,Vol. 5, No. 4 (July-August 1999)
Jessica Eve Stern, "Apocalypse Never, Poison Possible," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Winter 1999)
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ASSOCIATES
BOOKS AND REPORTS
Walter C. Clemens, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 1998)
Charles G. Cogan, Alliés éternels, amis ombrageux: les Etats-Unis et la France depuis 1940 (Brussels: Editions Bruylant, 1999)
Owen R. Coté, Jr., "Precision Strike from the Sea: New Missions for a New Navy," MIT Security Studies Program conference report, July 1998
Randall Forsberg, IDDS Almanac of World Arms Holdings, Production, and Trade (released on CD, Fall 1999)
Astrid Tuminez, Russian Nationalism Since 1856: Fragmented Ideology and the Making of Foreign Policy (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999)
Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1999)
ARTICLES, BOOK CHAPTERS, AND REVIEWS
Walter C. Clemens, "An Alternative to NATO Expansion," reprinted in John T. Rourke, ed., Taking Sides: Clashing Views on Controversial Issues in World Politics, 8th ed. (Guilford, Conn.: Dushkin/McGraw-Hill, 1998)
Walter C. Clemens, "The Baltic Reborn: Challenges of Transition," Democratizatsiya, Vol. 6, No. 4 (Fall 1998), pp. 710-733
Walter C. Clemens, "The Baltic Republics, Russia, and Energy: From Dependency to Interdependence?" SAIS Review, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 1999), pp. 190-208
Walter C. Clemens, "China: Alternative Futures," Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 32, No. 1 (1999), pp. 1-21
Walter C. Clemens, "From AD 2000 to AD 2025: Six Alternative Futures," International Studies in Democratizatsiya, Vol. 6, No. 3, (Summer 1998), p. 608
Walter C. Clemens, review of Neil Hood et al., Transition in the Baltic States: Micro-Level Studies in Democratizatsiya, Vol. 6, No. 3, (Summer 1998), p. 608
Walter C. Clemens, review of Robert Latham, "The Liberal Moment," in Slavic Review Vol. 57, No. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 631-632
Charles G. Cogan, "L''attitude des Etats-Unis à l''égard de la guerre d''Indochine," in L''Armée française et la guerre d''Indochine (1946-1954): adaptation ou inadaptation (Paris: Centre d''Etudes d''Histoire de la Défense, forthcoming 1999)
Charles G. Cogan, "The Security Crisis of the Late 1940s," in NATO: The First Fifty Years (New York: Macmillan, forthcoming 1999)
Charles G. Cogan, "Wye River, Long Fleuve: The CIA, the PLO, and the Peace Process," Mediterranean Quarterly, Vol. 10, No. 2 (Spring 1999)
Charles G. Cogan, review of Maurice Vaisse, La grandeur: politique étrangère du général de Gaulle," in French Politics and Society, Vol. 17, No. 1 (Winter 1999)
Owen R. Coté, Jr., "Innovation in the Submarine Force: Past and Present," Undersea Warfare, Vol. 1, No. ,2 (Winter 1998/99)
Owen R. Coté, Jr., "How to Spend Defense Dollars" op-ed in Washington Times, January 15, 1999, Page A19
Helen Fein, "The Three P''s of Genocide Prevention …" in Neal Riemer, ed., The Prevention of Genocide: Mission Impossible? (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, forthcoming 1999)
Phillip Fellman, "Olympic Airways and the Problem of Subsidization in the Single European Market," International Studies Notes, Summer 1999, the official publication of the International Studies Association
Peter M. Haas, "Social Constructivism and the Evolution of Multilateral Environmental Governance," in Aseem Prakash and Jeffrey A. Hart, eds., Globalization and Governance (New York: Routledge, 1999)
Peter M. Haas and Robert Knecht, "The Global Environmental Management Regime," in Jack Archer, Project Director, A Study of the Emerging International Environmental Management System, prepared for the United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of International Affairs
Robert E. Hunter, "Maximizing NATO," Foreign Affairs,Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999) in the special "NATO''s 50th anniversary" section
Daniel Lindley, "The Military Factor in the Eastern Mediterranean," in Clement Dodd, ed., Cyprus, the Need for New Perspectives, (Huntington, England: Eothen Press, 1999)
Jack Ruina, "The Problem of Conversion in the U.S. Military Electronics Industry Book," in Judith Reppy, ed., Conversion of Military R&D (London: Macmillan Press, 1998)
Table of Contents:
Environment and Natural Resources ProgramInternational Security Program Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project BCSIA Events BCSIA Publications Associates Biographies
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