Press Reviews and Praise
- Thucydides's Trap Case File
- Resources and Methodology
- Press Reviews and Praise
- Thucydides's Trap and Wonder Woman
Praise, Reviews, & Press Highlights
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Policy Leaders
“Thucydides’s Trap identifies a cardinal challenge to world order: the impact of a rising power on a ruling power. I read the book with great interest. I can only hope that the US-China relationship becomes the fifth case to resolve itself peacefully, rather than the thirteenth to result in war.”HENRY KISSINGER, former United States Secretary of State
“Graham Allison makes our toughest foreign policy dilemmas accessible to experts and everyday citizens alike. That’s why I regularly sought his counsel both as a senator and as vice president. In Destined for War, Allison lays out one of the defining challenges of our time—managing the critical relationship between China and the United States.”JOE BIDEN, President of the United States
“Steeped in history and propelled by one of the most transformative developments in modern times—the rise of China—Graham Allison has written a gripping book that decision-makers and citizens alike must read, digest, and act upon. Allison combines a historian’s depth of knowledge with a policymaker’s real world, practical understanding. He mines the recent and distant past to offer essential insights into the future — in so doing, changing the way we think about how America should act in the present.”SAMANTHA POWER, USAID Administrator and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
“Graham Allison has been a source of inspiration for me as a student and diplomat. As with Essence of Decision, Destined for War again provides us with his penetrating insights into global politics in the 21st century and beyond.”BAN KI-MOON, former Secretary General of the United Nations
“Reading Destined for War and drawing from its lessons could help to save the lives of millions of people.”KLAUS SCHWAB, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum
“If any book can stop a world war, it is this one. Graham Allison makes a clear and compelling case that serious conflict between the United States and China is looming, but not inevitable. This gripping book is a must read for policy makers in both nations as well as the general public.”SAM NUNN, Co-Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and former U.S. Senator
“Destined for War is a ‘must read’ for those who care about the long-term national security and economic interests of the United States.”DAN SULLIVAN, United States Senator (R-AK)
Military Leaders
“One of the most insightful and thought-provoking books I have ever read on the most important relationship in the world: the US and China. If Graham Allison is right—and I think he is—China and the US must heed the lessons in this superb study in order to avoid a war which neither side would win.”General (Ret.) DAVID PETRAEUS, Chairman of the KKR Global Institute,
former Director of the CIA, and former Commander of U.S. Central Command
“In dissecting—and suggesting ways to bend—the dangerous arc of the US-China relationship, Graham Allison has written the most important foreign policy book of our time. This book should immediately be read by our new president. Placing Destined for War atop every government organization’s reading list offers our generation of leaders the best hope for avoiding stumbling into Thucydides’s notorious trap.”Admiral (Ret.) SANDY WINNEFELD, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
“In Destined for War, Graham Allison has again done a great service. With an incisive review of the wars of yesterday and a deep understanding of today’s international politics, Allison has provided American and Chinese leaders not just with a stark warning about the consequences of falling into the Thucydides’s Trap, but also the insight to avoid it. For policymakers, scholars, and citizens on both sides of the Pacific Ocean, Destined for War is essential reading.”ASH CARTER, former U.S. Secretary of Defense
“Graham Allison is the Paul Revere of the nuclear age. He has been ringing the alarm for years trying to stir us from our slumber. In his brilliant book, Allison provides us with a heart stopping look into a future that may end as abruptly as the past began.”WILLIAM COHEN, former U.S. Secretary of Defense
Best-selling Authors
“Can the US avoid confrontation with China? That is the geopolitical question of our age. This important and fascinating book extracts lessons for how we can avoid such a clash.”WALTER ISAACSON, author of Steve Jobs
“A provocative thesis on one of today's most pressing foreign policy issues and a page turner of the first order, Destined For War is a must read. Allison writes with the propulsive narrative drive appropriate for such an immediate and danger-fraught topic.”CHRISTOPHER REICH, author of Invasion of Privacy,
The Patriots’ Club and Numbered AccountChina Experts
“Allison charts an essential course to avoid a catastrophic collision. Destined for War will be studied and debated for decades.”KEVIN RUDD, former Prime Minister of Australia
“Drawing on a sweeping command of history and a keen ability to distill the essence of an argument, Graham Allison has provided the necessary guide for how to manage Sino-American relations into an uncertain future. Essential, even indispensable reading for every diplomat—and financier or businessman—that contemplates China and its relations with the world.”KURT CAMPBELL, CEO of The Asia Group and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State
for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
“Destined for War is a must-read for anyone concerned about US-China relations, or peace. And by all who care about the ways US foreign policy is formed—and ought to be formed. A gifted combination of scholarship with truly accessible writing.”AMITAI ETZIONI, professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University
and author of Avoiding War with China
“Graham Allison, with his usual conceptual clarity, uses the “Thucydides’s Trap” to light up the big question of our day: how can the dominant power (the United States) avoid war with the rising power (China)? Allison provides historical perspective, while presenting the U.S. perspective that he knows from the inside and the Chinese perspective that he has studied with uncommon depth.”EZRA VOGEL, author of Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China
“Managing our strategic rivalry with a rising China will be the number one challenge for US foreign policy in the decades ahead. The stakes are high. Historical precedents are ominous. Some think conflict is inevitable. Others dismiss that conclusion as simplistic. This seminal book provides the reader both with a fascinating excursion through history, and with the conceptual basis for thinking intelligently about an issue that, for better or worse, will profoundly affect the future of the United States.”J. STAPLETON ROY, former U.S. ambassador to China
“As Destined for War demonstrates, recognizing the Thucydidean stress between the US and China is far from appeasement. Rather, Graham Allison shows why it is the fundamental starting point for a successful American strategy to deal with the rise of Chinese power that both upholds our vital national interests and avoids war.”Ambassador ROBERT D. BLACKWILL, Henry Kissinger Senior Fellow for
US Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign RelationsHistorians
“A hugely respected theorist and practitioner in the field of contemporary national security, Graham Allison is also a master of applied history. You can bet that China's leaders will read Allison's warnings about Thucydides's Trap. I only wish I could be as sure about America's leaders. But every informed citizen should buy a copy.”NIALL FERGUSON, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution, Stanford University,
and author of The War of the World
“Graham Allison is the quintessential scholar-practitioner. He has served at the highest levels of government and the academy, and is one of the principal protagonists of 'applied history' world-wide. His latest book brings historically-informed political science to bear on the preeminent strategic question of our age: whether the rise of China can unfold without major war. A work of reflection rather than prediction, its conclusions are nevertheless deeply disturbing. Surely another classic in the making, Destined for War is a brilliant example of 'thinking in time', which—as the author shows—is against us.”BRENDAN SIMMS, author of Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy
“Might Destined for War be the policy book of the year? When Xi Jinping declares that the story in Graham Allison’s book is serious enough to compel our attention, then we need to study the arguments in it. Deftly presented, clearly structured, and with a fine concluding exploration of the endless historical debate between great forces and contingency, Destined for War seems itself destined for much attention, argument, and constant classroom use.”PAUL KENNEDY, author of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
“Read this book. You cannot get a better introduction to the dilemmas the US faces in its China policy or to the methods of applied history in understanding current affairs.”ARNE WESTAD, author of Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750
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"Graham Allison’s Destined for War makes his arguments through historical case studies that illuminate the pressure toward military confrontation when a rising power challenges a dominant one...[Allison's] wide-ranging, erudite case studies...span human history. "
—Judith Shapiro, author of China’s Environmental Challenges | Read full review
"A pertinent study of the relationship between the United States and China... A timely, reasoned treatise by a keen observer and historian."
—Kirkus (Starred Review) | Read full review
"In Destined for War, a brief but far-reaching book in which potted history is incisively deployed, Graham Allison explores how America and China may be on a collision course...One of the many strengths of Destined for War is the restoration of the late Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations” theory, disparaged in the mid-1990s but subliminally gaining force by the day."
—Robert Kaplan, author of Asia’s Cauldron | Read full review
"Before settling in for pleasurable summer books, read Graham Allison's Destined for War. A warning label: It's going to scare the hell out of you... [Allison is] a first-class academic with the instincts of a first-rate politician. He brings to the "Thucydides's Trap" an impressive sweep of history and geopolitical and military knowledge."
—Albert Hunt, Bloomberg View columnist | Read full review
"Allison's scholarship pulls historic examples forward vividly and efficiently, and as he gets closer to our time, he enriches the narrative with a detailed account of America's emergence at the beginning of the 20th century…Allison raises critical issues with a sense of both drama and history. His prose should alarm serious American thinkers."
—Michael Hayden, former director of CIA and NSA | Read full review
"As Xi Jinping prepares to meet Donald Trump in Florida next week, his staff might do well to get hold of an advance copy of an important new book by Graham Allison on US-Chinese relations — which bears the doom-laden title Destined for War. The Chinese president is already familiar with the work of Allison, a professor of government at Harvard. In November 2013, I attended a meeting with President Xi in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where he told a group of western visitors: “We must all work together to avoid Thucydides’s trap.”
—Gideon Rachman, Financial Times | Read full review
Destined for War “sounds a useful, even important warning call… Stability and predictability are key factors in averting conflict. America needs a coherent strategy, rather than making sporadic lunges onto the world stage with either rhetoric or cruise missiles.”
—Max Hastings, historian and author of The Secret War | Read full review
"The most comprehensive book to ever tackle the question of not only whether a US-China war is possible, but what steps Washington and Beijing can take to avoid such a calamity .... Allison’s efforts in Destined for War will surely be praised, and for good reasons .... Allison’s ideas flow easily, no matter how frightening they are .... We are finally about to have a real public debate about the very distinct possibility of a war between the US and China."
—Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at The Center for the National Interest | Read full review
"Allison’s book makes a fascinating and worthwhile contribution to our understanding of the nature of power as a function of the nation-state. Through his analysis of the four case studies in which war was avoided, Allison gives us “twelve clues for peace”, including practical examples of how Thucydides’s Trap was avoided. These include insights into the nature of leadership, how power is enacted, the opportunities and entrapments of alliances, and much more."
—Jack Bowers, Senior Lecturer at Australian National University | Read full review
Destined for War "tells the extraordinary story of China’s transformation since Deng abandoned Mao’s catastrophic Stalinism, and considers whether the story will end in war between China and America...New leaders must build institutions for global cooperation that can transcend Thucydides’ dynamics...I hope people like Jeff Bezos read this timely book and resolve to build the political forces we need."
—Dominic Cummings, British political strategist | Read full review
"Is China’s rise a threat to American interests? If so, how can America counter it? These questions form the background of Graham Allison’s essential book. The phrase 'Thucydides's Trap' is of Allison’s invention, coined to hammer home that the dilemmas America faces with China are not at all novel but actually formed the subject of the very first history ever written...In Allison’s hands, it becomes a paradigm case for understanding the dynamics of power transitions and how those transitions can lead to wars that leave both parties worse off than if they had come to terms."
—Noah Millman, senior editor of The American Conservative | Read full review
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The four traps China may fall into
Yanzhong Huang | Council on Foreign Relations | October 30, 2017"China’s path toward becoming a world leader is not likely to be smooth sailing. In order to fulfill these ambitious targets, China has to overcome four traps: the Middle-Income Trap, the Tacitus Trap, the Thucydides Trap, and the Kindleberger Trap."
Can we avoid the 'Thucydides Trap'?
Yoichi Funabashi | Japan Times | October 10, 2017"When an emerging power attempts to supplant a hegemonic power in international politics, major conflict often ensues. Harvard professor Graham T. Allison describes this scenario as the “Thucydides Trap.” His recent book on the subject —Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? — has received worldwide attention."
Steve Bannon discusses Thucydides Trap on 60 Minutes
CBS | September 10, 2017"The only thing we're debating is rational accomodationists that say let's stay out of this Thucydides Trap (as China grows, it's always going to be bigger but we can be rational and kind of drive this growth to a better place and stay a good second power) are hawks like myself that say they want to be hegemonic."
Harvard student Chris Li gives Destined for War to Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou
The Liberty Net | August 24, 2017UN Secretary General Guterres on Destined for War at opening of General Assembly
United Nations | September 19, 2018"Today, with shifts in the balance of power, the risk of confrontation may increase. In assessing the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece, Thucydides said, and I quote, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” This is what the political scientist Graham Allison calls the “Thucydides Trap”. But in his book Destined for War and reviewing many examples of rivalry in the past, he concluded that conflict is never inevitable.Indeed, with leadership committed to strategic cooperation and to managing competing interests, we can avoid war and steer the world onto a safer path."
Chinese Ambassador to US Cui Tiankai on Thucydides's Trap
Global Times | August 31, 2018"When talking about the so-called 'Thucydides Trap', when one great power tries to replace another, Ambassador Cui said that he doesn't think what happened in Europe's past will necessarily apply to the China-US relationship. "The best way of avoiding a trap is to open a new path and this is, I believe, a common task for our two countries and our shared responsibility to the world and to history," he said."
Chinese Central Military Commission on Thucydides's Trap
Japan Times | July 4, 2018
"The lessons of history teach us that strong military might is important for a country to grow from being big to being strong ... A strong military is the way to avoid the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and escape the obsession that war is unavoidable between an emerging power and a ruling hegemony."
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak on Thucydides's Trap
Bloomberg | April 26, 2018
"In an hour-long interview with Bloomberg on April 24, his first one-on-one with international media in more than three years, Najib spoke warmly of Malaysia’s relationship with both China and the U.S. He also stressed the need for the major powers to act in a "constructive” way in the region and avoid a potential Thucydides trap, named after the Greek historian who warned of war when an emerging power challenges a mature one."
Secretary of State Pompeo on Thucydides's Trap at Senate confirmation hearing
CSPAN | April 12, 2018
“You talked about Thucydides’s Trap. The ability to avoid that almost certainly depends on the capacity for the two nations to speak to the things that they have as their central interests, their core interests, and then those things that are of second-order importance where cooperation will be the mark of the day. Absent a strong America, the rest of the things pale in comparison. We have to make sure that we have robust economic growth. We need to be sure that America does the things it needs to do so that we have a long-term prospect of economic prosperity.”
Wall Street Journal on Thucydides's Trap
WSJ | April 10, 2018
"Ray Dalio sees himself as a China expert, but for someone steeped in the country’s long history, he has changed his views very quickly…Mr. Dalio based his war fears on the Thucydides Trap, a historical concept ... which holds that wars are common between established and rising powers."
Martin Wolf on Destined for War
FT | April 10, 2018
"Graham Allison of Harvard is anxious in his Destined For War: conflict between the incumbent and rising power is almost inevitable."
Admiral (Ret.) James Stavridis on Destined for War
Bloomberg | February 13, 2018"A good primer on this is Graham Allison’s recent book, "Destined for War: Can America and China Avoid the Thucydides Trap?" Allison…makes the point that while we are playing checkers, the Chinese are not simply playing chess – they are playing a different game altogether: Go."
"The goal, then, is to craft a sensible strategic approach that confronts China where we must, but cooperates where we can. It should be developed together by the Departments of Defense, State, Treasury and Homeland Security (for the cyber piece), and led by National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster. The working group should take input from outside experts and strategists including Allison."
Can Semi-Capitalist China Supplant Semi-Socialist America?
The Savvy Street | February 12, 2018"Xi [Jinping] is the star of a recent “must read” book on geopolitics and America’s place—now and in the future—in the world. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap by Harvard University Professor Graham Allison (for many years, dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government) confronts the compelling evidence that the Chinese economic juggernaut is rolling over America toward world supremacy. Military supremacy is driven by economic supremacy."
Charlie Cook on Destined for War
National Journal | January 29, 2018"It isn’t often that a book comes along that should be mandatory reading for every member of Congress, Cabinet member and, for that matter, any senior governmental official with a connection to foreign policy and national security. But Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? is such a book."
Thucydides's Trap discussed in South China Morning Post
South China Morning Post | January 17, 2018"Graham Allison says that avoiding the Thucydides Trap requires leaders to make good decisions. Exercising good judgment will be ever more critical if the US charts a more self-interested, some might say nationalist, foreign policy, at the same time that China increases its global engagement. To deal with these challenges and risks, both China and the US must find a way to surmount their mutual suspicions."
Destined for War makes Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul Zukunft's 2018 Reading List
All Hands (Coast Guard Blog) | January 1, 2018"China’s resurging economic and military influence is reshaping the global balance of power. Allison assesses the hypotheses of an Athenian historian, Thucydides, that war is inevitable when a rising power challenges an existing power. By examining 16 case studies throughout history, 12 of which led to war, Allison sounds a warning about the rise of China. But he argues, war is not inevitable. As the Coast Guard operates around the globe as an agile military service with unique abilities and authorities, we must always consider the forces that shape our operating environment."
Thucydides's Trap in the cover story of The Economist
The Economist | December 14, 2017"When a rising power challenges an incumbent one, war often follows. That prospect, known as Thucydides trap after the Greek historian who first described it, looms over relations between China and the West, particularly America. So, increasingly, does a more insidious confrontation. Even if China does not seek to conquer foreign lands, many people fear that it seeks to conquer foreign minds."
Destined for War named one of the "Best Books of 2017 in Politics" by the Financial Times
Financial Times | December 1, 2017"Allison, a Harvard professor, shows that -- more often than not -- a rising power has clashed with the established hegemon, and asks whether the US and China can escape this dismal pattern. A book that has caught the attention of the leaders of both China and the US."
Destined for War named one of the "Top 10 Politics Books of the Year" by The Times of London
The Times of London | November 26, 2017"In The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides noted that Sparta and Athens lived peacefully for decades, but the rise of Athens unsettled Sparta and the two states were drawn into battle. Taking the long view of the US/China rivalry, Allison identifies 16 similar struggles between great and emerging powers of which 12 ended in war. Though-provoking and very readable."
Destined for War named one of the "100 Notable Books of 2017" by the New York Times
New York Times Book Review | November 22, 2017"Allison offers erudite historical case studies that illuminate the pressure toward military confrontation when a rising power challenges a dominant one."
Graham Allison lectures on Thucydides's Trap at US Special Operations Command
USSOCOM | November 15, 2017 (Published)"Dr. Graham Allison, author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap delivers a lecture to Special Operations Command personnel at the Joint Special Operations University on MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla., Nov. 9, 2017. The lecture provided an opportunity for the audience to learn about historic outcomes from rising world powers conflicting with ruling ones, such as the results of the Ancient Greek Peloponnesian War."