To Arm or to Ally? The Patron's Dilemma and the Strategic Logic of Arms Transfers and Alliances

Summary

How do great powers decide whether to arm or ally with client states? Great powers face the “patron’s dilemma”: ensuring clients’ security without being drawn into unwanted conflicts. Thus, great powers offer alliances only to states whose interests closely match their own, and arm only states that are relatively weak and therefore unlikely to behave aggressively. U.S. policies toward Israel and Taiwan reveal that the United States engaged in calculation of its rational interests instead of being influenced by domestic politics.