Belfer Iran Brief – Corker bill Passes Committee, Sanctions and Inspections Emerge as Main Disputes, and Other News

Highlights

• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously approved a revised Corker-Menendez bill that requires Congressional review over nuclear deal with Iran, staving off a lobbying push by the White House to kill the legislation. 

• President Obama “will not accept a deal without phased sanctions” relief, the White House announced.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system to Iran for an estimated $800 million, drawing criticism from US and Israel.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• The pace of sanctions relief and intrusiveness of IAEA inspections have emerged as the most contested aspects in nuclear negotiations:
  • Sanctions relief: The White House said Obama “will not accept a deal without phased sanctions” relief, and Congressional officials said Iran could immediately receive $30-$50 billion upon signing. (Wall Street Journal, 4/17; New York Times, 4/17)
    • Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif in interview: “We’re not talking about phased removal of sanctions. Unfortunately the United States started talking about and using the phrase ‘phased sanctions’ and if you go through the joint statement you will not even see the word ‘suspension’ and you will not see the word ‘phase’. It’s clear that all sanctions, all economic and financial sanctions will be terminated. On the day that we agree we will go to the Security Council and the Security Council will adopt a resolution which will terminate all the previous resolutions and will set the stage for termination of all sanctions. This is very clear, there won’t be phased, there won’t be suspensions, it is very clear in the agreement that we announced.” (EuroNews, 4/17)
  • Inspection of military facilities: Hossein Salami, IRGC deputy commander, said “the enemy” would “not even be permitted the most normal military site in their dreams.” (AP, 4/19)

• If talks break down, Zarif warned that Iran “will continue with its enrichment program without any limitations,” and US and UN would ramp up sanctions. (EuroNews, 4/17)

• In New York Times op-ed, Zarif said that the nuclear issue is a “manufactured crisis” that distracts from solving larger “turmoil” in Persian Gulf. (New York Times, 4/20)
  • “There are multiple arenas where the interests of Iran and other major stakeholders intersect. The establishment of a collective forum for dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, to facilitate engagement, is long overdue.”

• Iranian negotiator said Tehran wouldn’t hesitate extending negotiations beyond summer deadline in order to ensure deal meets “criteria the leader has introduced for a good deal.” (Wall Street Journal, 4/10)

• IAEA reported that Iran continues to comply with the Joint Plan of Action. (Reuters, 4/20)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• The International Energy Agency does not predict a sharp rise in Iranian oil exports until 3-5 years after a nuclear deal is signed, given that Iran’s oil infrastructure has not been adequately maintained. (Reuters, 4/12)

Iranian domestic politics

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the United States “created the myth of nuclear weapons” in order to “say the Islamic Republic is a source of threat.” (Reuters, 4/19; AFP, 4/19)

• Parliament hardliners issued their own “fact sheet” for nuclear negotiations, calling for “revision” of framework agreement to significantly reduce nuclear constraints. (Fars News, 4/15)                                                     

US-Iran relations

• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously approved a revised Corker-Menendez bill that requires Congressional review over nuclear deal with Iran, staving off a lobbying push by the White House to kill the legislation. (Politico, 4/16; New York Times, 4/14)
  • The bill, which was approved 19-0, will now face a full Senate vote.
  • Obama: “Assuming that what lands on my desk is what Senators Corker and Cardin agreed to, I will sign it.  And that will then give Congress an opportunity to see, do we have a deal that reflects the political agreement that I talked about earlier?  I expect that it will.” (White House, 4/17)
  • Rouhani’s response: “We declare to you that we are not negotiating with the U.S. Senate or the House of Representatives. The party we are negotiating with is called the P5-plus-1 group.” (New York Times, 4/15; Wall Street Journal, 4/15)
    • Rouhani: “At the end of these talks and upon the time of signing the deal there should be an announcement on the end and lifting of the oppressive sanctions against the Iranian nation.”
       
• US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would only set back Iran’s nuclear program by one year. (Reuters, 4/10)

• Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post reporter detained in an Iranian prison since July, was charged with espionage and contacting a “hostile government” and “individuals with hostile intent.” (Washington Post, 4/20; Statement by Martin Baron, 4/20)

Geopolitics and Iran

• Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system to Iran for an estimated $800 million, drawing criticism from US and Israel. (New York Times, 4/13)
  • Russian Foreign Minsiter Sergei Lavrov: “It was done in the spirit of good will in order to encourage progress in the talks…We believe that the need for this kind of embargo, indeed a separate, voluntary Russian embargo, has completely disappeared.”
  • Israeli Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz: “This is a direct result of the legitimacy that Iran is receiving from the nuclear deal that is being prepared, and proof that the Iranian economic growth which follows the lifting of sanctions will be exploited for arming itself and not for the welfare of the Iranian people.” (AFP, 4/13)
  • Zarif: “Russia is fulfilling its contractual treaty obligation to deliver the S-300 defense capabilities to Iran. It had nothing to do with the negotiations.” (AFP, 4/15)
  • US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey: Military option against Iran’s nuclear facilities “intact” even if S-300 deployed. (Reuters, 4/16)
  • Obama: “This is actually a sale that was slated to happen in 2009.  When I first met with then-Prime Minister Putin, they actually stopped the sale, paused or suspended the sale at our request.  And I’m, frankly, surprised that it held this long, given that they were not prohibited by sanctions from selling these defensive weapons.  When I say I’m not surprised -- given some of the deterioration in the relationship between Russia and the United States, and the fact that their economy is under strain and this was a substantial sale.” (White House, 4/17)

• US naval forces are helping Egyptian and Saudi navies enforce a blockade against Yemen, and American sailors have raided at least one ship suspected of trying to smuggle weapons from Iran to Houthi fighters. (Wall Street Journal, 4/12)
  • USS Theodore Roosevelt, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, has been dispatched to support naval operations. (AP, 4/20)

• Following a rare visit to Tehran by Australia’s foreign minister, Iran and Australia agreed to informally share intelligence information about foreign fighters joining ISIL. (Reuters, 4/20; AFP, 4/20)

Israel

• In a speech marking Holocaust Remembrance Day in Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu compared the Nazi killing of 6 million Jews to Iran’s calls to eliminate Israel: “As the Nazis strived to trample civilization and replace it with a 'master race' while destroying the Jewish people, so is Iran striving to take over the region and expand further with a declared goal of destroying the Jewish state.” (AP, 4/15)   

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.

Cyber

• Volume of Iranian cyber attacks has increased rapidly since early 2014 and focuses mainly on espionage, a shift from previous attack styles, according to a cyber security firm. (New York Times, 4/15)