Belfer Iran Brief – Deadline imminent for political framework for nuclear agreement

Highlights

• Nuclear negotiators closed in on the March 31 deadline for a political framework agreement, with both sides reportedly continuing to disagree on central issues such as level of uranium enrichment, pace of sanctions relief, length of the agreement and status of research and development. The deadline is midnight tomorrow in Lausanne, Switzerland, or 6pm in Washington.

• Sens. Bob Corker (R, Tenn.) and Bob Menendez (D, N.J.) agreed to delay a committee vote on the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act until April 14, ceding to heavy White House pressure not to hold vote before the Senate’s recess.

• In response to Saudi-led military action in Yemen, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani  “condemned all military intervention in the internal affairs of independent nations.”

Diplomacy and nuclear issue                           

• Nuclear negotiators closed in on the March 31 deadline for a political framework agreement, with both sides reportedly continuing to disagree on central issues such as the extent of uranium enrichment, pace of sanctions relief, length of the agreement and status of research and development. The deadline is midnight tomorrow in Lausanne, Switzerland, or 6pm in Washington. (Reuters, 3/30)
  • Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi said Tehran has ruled out shipping LEU to Russia to fuel fabrication, but US officials insisted that this issue “had not yet been decided.” (New York Times, 3/30)
  • Russian diplomats have objected to provisions of a potential UN Security Council resolution that would automatically “snap back” sanctions against Iran if it violates an agreement, weakening Moscow’s veto power. (Wall Street Journal, 3/29)

• Rouhani spoke with British Prime Minister David Cameron, French President Francois Hollande and Russian President Vladimir Putin as diplomats resumed talks. Rouhani also wrote letter to Obama. (Guardian, 3/25; Reuters, 3/26; Bloomberg, 3/26)
  • Iranian diplomats said they don’t intend to conclude a framework deal by March 31 that includes any specifics or numbers, while American officials said the framework will include a “quantifiable dimension.” A European diplomat explained that “the politics in America demand specificity, and an Iranian commitment. And the politics in Iran demand vagueness.” (New York Times, 3/24)
  • A compromise under consideration would allow Iran to operate hundreds centrifuges in Fordow facility but not feed them with uranium. (AP, 3/26)

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated his support for nuclear negotiators and called for critics to tone down their complaints. He also insisted that all sanctions must be relieved at the beginning of the implementation of a deal. (Reuters, 3/21; AFP, 3/21; Financial Times, 3/21)
  • In his annual Nowruz speech marking Persian New Year, Khamenei also declared the coming year as the “Year of the Administration and the People, Harmony and Unity.” Last year’s slogan was “Year of National Determination and Jihadi Management.”
  • Re nuclear talks: “America needs the nuclear negotiations. The differences that exist among the Americans -- between senators and executive officials -- does not mean that they do not need the negotiations… There is no one in Iran who does not want the nuclear issue to be resolved through negotiations. What the people of Iran do not want is to accept America's imposition and bullying.”
  • Re sanctions: “Lifting sanctions is one of the terms of the negotiations, not a result of it. Those who are involved in the negotiations clearly understand the difference between these two. They say, ‘We will sign an agreement first. Then, we look at their behavior and lift sanctions if they adhere to it.’ This is an American trick.”

• Iran said it would not accept IAEA “snap inspections” as part of a comprehensive nuclear agreement, and Tehran criticized IAEA Chief Yukiya Amano’s demand as unproductive interference. (AP, 3/24)

• American officials publicly downplayed concerns about Iran’s testing of the advanced IR-5 centrifuge, calling it a “mistake” made by a low-level nuclear technician, not a deliberate effort to test the boundaries of the JPOA. In November, the US State Department acknowledged that Iran’s action was a violation of “IAEA requirements,” and Iran subsequently stopped this testing. (Bloomberg, 3/18) 

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Oil traders are concerned that Iran will flood oil markets with the oil it is storing in tankers, further depressing prices, in the event of a deal. (Financial Times, 3/24)

• The world’s largest oil services group, Schlumberger, admitted that it violated American sanctions against trade with Iran and Sudan. It agreed to pay a $233 million penalty. (Financial Times, 3/25; Reuters, 3/25)
  • PayPal also agreed to pay $7.7 million in a settlement after the US Treasury accused it of allowing transactions with Iran, Cuba and Sudan, violating US sanctions. (AP, 3/25)
     
• Rouhani inaugurated a new phase of construction at the South Pars gas field, one of the largest gas reservoirs in the world and a key future source of Iranian gas. (AFP, 3/17)

Iranian domestic politics

• Iranian hardliners have been unusually quiet in criticizing nuclear negotiations, following Khamenei’s admonitions and a satisfaction with the direction of talks and Iran’s expanding influence in the Middle East. (New York Times, 3/23)

• Hardliners took aim at Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif’s insistence that a nuclear deal be concluded under Chapter VII of the UN charter, which critics said would implicitly admit that Iran’s program was not purely peaceful. UN resolutions under Chapter VII deal with “threats to the peace.” (Telegraph, 3/23)

• An Iranian journalist and former Rouhani aide who was covering nuclear talks in Lausanne sought political asylum in Switzerland. (Reuters, 3/30; Telegraph, 3/27)

US-Iran relations

• The Senate unanimously passed a vague and nonbinding budget amendment calling for the imposition of sanctions if the “President cannot make a determination and certify that Iran is complying with” JPOA or a nuclear deal. Republicans said the vote amounted to support for the Kirk-Menendez bill, while Democrats said it reflected  support for the Boxer bill. (Amendment 545; Politico, 3/26; Reuters, 3/26; AFP, 3/26)

• Obama issued a video message for the Persian New Year celebration of Nowruz, outlining benefits of “reasonable” nuclear deal. “There are people, in both our countries and beyond, who oppose a diplomatic resolution. My message to you — the people of Iran — is that, together, we have to speak up for the future we seek.” (White House, 3/19) Note: It was Obama’s sixth Nowruz video since he took office, but it was the first time he discussed Iran’s fatwa against nuclear weapons or mentioned Khamenei by name.

• Corker and Menendez agreed to delay a committee vote on the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act until April 14, ceding to heavy White House pressure not to hold vote before the Senate recess. (Politico, 3/19; Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 3/19)

• 360 House members wrote a letter to Obama outlining the need for legislative involvement in a nuclear deal. The letter did not endorse Corker’s bill or other proposals, but emphasized: “Congress must be convinced that its terms foreclose any pathway to a bomb, and only then will Congress be able to consider permanent sanctions relief.” (The Hill, 3/19; Draft letter, 3/19) 

Geopolitics and Iran

• Zarif condemned Arab intervention in Yemen, calling for the bombing to stop and for “dialogue and national reconciliation” to begin. Rouhani also “condemned all military intervention in the internal affairs of independent nations.” (Reuters, 3/27; AFP, 3/26)
  • Days before attack, Iran provided Houthi rebels 185 tons of weapons and military equipment. (Al Arabiya, 3/20)

• Several Iran-controlled Shia militia groups in Tikrit withdrew fighters in Tikrit to protest the beginning of an American bombing campaign against the approximately 400 ISIL fighters remaining in Saddam Hussein’s hometown.
  • A US drone strike killed two Revolutionary Guard advisers in Iraq, Tehran announced, though US officials denied the incident. (AP, 3/30; AFP, 3/30)
  • American defense officials said they are concerned Iran could attack US forces in Iraq if nuclear talks break down or if US escalates efforts to oust Assad. (Politico, 3/25)
  • A US airstrike killed six Shia militiamen and three Iraqi police officers, including a colonel. (New York Times, 3/27)

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Iran’s efforts to “dominate the region” have “begun annoying us.” He added that “this is really not tolerable.” (Reuters, 3/26)

• Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani told a youth conference in Tehran that the IRGC could exercise control of Jordan if it chose. IRGC denied comments, which were published and quickly deleted from Iranian news outlets. (Jordan Times, 3/24; Ha’aretz, 3/23; Israel HaYom, 3/27) 

Israel

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the emerging accord with Iran is worse than feared, and he accused Iran of seeking to “conquer the Middle East.” (Reuters, 3/29)
  • Netanyahu said in post-election interview that Israel and Arab neighbors “could live with” small number of centrifuges. “The most important thing is that the lifting of restrictions on Iran's nuclear program would depend on Iran's change of behavior,” he added. (AFP, 3/19)

• Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz said the deal under consideration would allow for 9-10 month breakout time, in contrast to American determination of 12 months. In a trip to Paris, he met with French diplomats in effort to close loopholes in “bad, insufficient deal.” (Reuters, 3/23; Reuters, 3/26; New York Times, 3/23)