Belfer Iran Brief – Khamenei supports continuation of nuclear talks, and other news

Published: Dec. 2, 2014

Highlights:

Khamenei: “I am not opposed to the extension of the talks, for the same reason that I wasn't opposed to the talks per se.”

Iran agreed to convert part of its stockpile of 20% oxide to reactor fuel.

Israel named its new army chief of staff, an infantryman who strongly opposes war with Iran.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

Responding to negotiation extension, Khamenei announced that the “United States and European colonialist countries gathered and applied their entire efforts to bring the Islamic Republic to its knees but they could not and they will not.” (AP, 11/25)
- “I am not opposed to the extension of the talks, for the same reason that I wasn't opposed to the talks per se.” (AP, 11/27)
- “We accept rational words; we accept fair and sensible agreements. But if there is bullying and excessive demands, no, we won't accept.” (AP, 11/27)
- Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Khamenei, said that since the supreme leader approves of the extension, domestic criticism of the negotiations should cease. (Radio Free Europe, 12/1)

During the seven month extension of nuclear talks, Iran agreed to: (1) convert part of its stockpile of 20% oxide into reactor fuel, making it difficult to convert it back for further enrichment; (2) provide greater access to its centrifuge facilities; (3) limit its experimentation with new centrifuge models, including the IR-5; (4) not experiment with other enrichment techniques. (Reuters, 12/1; Al-Monitor, 12/1)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

Iran’s currency market will stabilize, the finance minister said, following fluctuations linked to nuclear negotiations. (AP, 12/1)

Oil exports to Japan increased 28% compared to last year. (Press TV, 11/28)

Iranian domestic politics

Iran’s military said its unmanned aerial vehicles have a range of 3,000 km. (Tehran Times, 11/29) Note: Range, if accurate, is about double the capabilities of American Reaper and Predator drones.

Iran nuclear negotiations — Undated Image of Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei spoke in favor of continuing the nuclear talks with the P5+1 this week (Credit: Wikimedia Commons).

US-Iran relations

Republican lawmakers called for the passage of new sanctions legislation, in order to exert additional pressure on Iran as negotiations continue. (Al-Monitor, 11/24)
- Joint statement from Senators John McCain, Kelly Ayotte, Lindsey Graham: “We believe this latest extension of talks should be coupled with increased sanctions and a requirement that any final deal between Iran and the United States be sent to Congress for approval.” (Office of Senator Lindsey Graham, 11/24)
- Also releasing statements in support of new sanctions: Representative Ed Royce, Senator John Cornyn, Senator Mark Kirk, Senator Robert Menendez.
- Other lawmakers praised extension and/or opposed new sanctions: Representative Adam Smith, Senator Carl Levin, Senator Dianne Feinstein, Senator Tim Kaine.
- AIPAC said legislation upping sanctions against Iran is “essential” if negotiations are to succeed. (AIPAC, 11/24)
- White House spokesman Josh Earnest said additional Congressional sanctions would be counterproductive: “We do believe that enough progress has been made to warrant giving the Iranian regime more time to answer the international community's concerns.” (Reuters, 11/24)

In a new public opinion survey, 69% of American voters said they would “reject a deal under which Iran agreed to stop R&D but kept its current nuclear capabilities.” (Times of Israel, 11/25)
- 81% said Iranian government cannot be trusted to keep agreements; 85% do not believe Iranian claims that nuclear program is peaceful.
- Survey conducted before negotiation extension by pollster Frank Luntz. Margin of error: 3%.

Geopolitics and Iran

An Iranian F-4 Phantom fighter jet conducted bombing runs in Diyala province, Iraq, in late November, video shot by Al Jazeera showed. (IHS Jane’s, 11/30; Ha’aretz, 12/1; Huffington Post, 12/1)

Iranian hackers attacked defense and aerospace computer networks in 16 countries, including the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia, according to a U.S. cyber defense company. The attacks, which began in 2012, were dubbed “Operation Cleaver.” (Cylance, 12/2)

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu named Major General Gadi Eizenkot as new IDF Chief of Staff. Eizenkot is known in Israel’s defense establishment for his opposition to attacking Iran, unless in the case of last resort. (Times of Israel, 11/28)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes