Belfer Iran Brief – Netanyahu: Deal under consideration “paves Iran’s path to the bomb,” and other news

Highlights

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a joint meeting of Congress that the deal being negotiated by the P5+1 and Iran “doesn’t block Iran’s path to the bomb; it paves Iran’s path to the bomb.”

• Obama said in an interview before the speech that “it’s probably still more likely than not that Iran doesn’t get to yes” on nuclear deal with West. He reiterated that an agreement must last at least 10 years.

• Iran’s parliament approved the removal of $4.8 billion from National Development Fund – Iran’s sovereign wealth fund – to develop oil and gas fields.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a joint meeting of Congress that the deal being negotiated by the P5+1 and Iran “doesn’t block Iran’s path to the bomb; it paves Iran’s path to the bomb.”
  • Netanyahu said the US has offered two major concessions to Iran: (1) leaving it with “vast nuclear infrastructure,” allowing it to easily violate deal and race to bomb and (2) relieving all restrictions after a decade, allowing it to ramp up its nuclear capabilities and build bombs faster and with impunity.
  • Restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program should not be lifted until Iran (1) stops “aggression against its neighbors”; (2) stops supporting terrorism; and (3) stops “threatening to annihilate my country.”
  • “If Iran wants to be treated like a normal country, let it act like a normal country.”
  • Obama said in an interview before the speech that “it’s probably still more likely than not that Iran doesn’t get to yes” on nuclear deal with the West. He reiterated that an agreement must last at least 10 years. (Reuters, 3/2)

• Obama: “Prime Minister Netanyahu thinks that the best way to do that is either through doubling down on more sanctions or through military action, ensuring that Iran has absolutely no enrichment capabilities whatsoever. And there’s no expert on Iran or nuclear proliferation around the world that seriously thinks that Iran is going to respond to additional sanctions by eliminating its nuclear program.”
  • In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif said that “Iran will not accept excessive and illogical demands” and said Obama’s comments were “expressed in unacceptable and threatening phrases.” (Reuters, 3/3)
  • US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power at AIPAC: “We believe diplomacy is the preferred route to secure our shared aim. But if diplomacy fails, we know the stakes of a nuclear-armed Iran as well as everyone here. We will not let it happen. There will never be a sunset on America’s commitment to Israel’s security. Never.” (New York Times, 3/2; State Department, 3/2; Washington Post, 3/2)
  • US National Security Adviser Susan Rice at AIPAC: “There is simply no alternative that prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon better or longer than the type of comprehensive deal that we seek.” (Washington Post, 3/2)
    • Rice: “Sound bytes won’t prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Strong diplomacy, backed by pressure, can. And if diplomacy fails, let’s make it clear to the world that it is Iran’s responsibility”

• In AIPAC speech on Monday, Netanyahu sought to de-escalate tension with Obama administration, saying that while US and Israel “disagree on the best way to prevent Iran from developing [nuclear] weapons…our friendship will weather the current disagreement, as well, to grow even stronger in the future.” (Washington Post, 3/2; New York Times, 3/2; Wall Street Journal, 3/2; Prime Minister’s Office, 3/2)

• US Secretary of State John Kerry on ABC: “The Prime Minister of Israel is welcome to speak in the United States, obviously. And we have a closer relationship with Israel right now in terms of security than at any time in history.” (ABC This Week, 3/1)
  • Kerry in separate comments: “We are concerned by reports that suggest selective details of ongoing negotiations will be discussed in upcoming days…Doing so makes it more difficult to reach the goal that Israel and others say they share – to get a good deal.” (Washington Post, 3/2; New York Times, 3/2; State Department, 3/2)

• Zarif in Geneva: “Our negotiating partners, particularly the Western countries and particularly the United States, must once and for all come to the understanding that sanctions and agreement don't go together.” (Reuters, 3/2)

• Iran has continued to stonewall the IAEA’s investigation into Possible Military Dimensions of its nuclear program. IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said that “this process cannot continue indefinitely” and noted “we have asked questions and the questions are clear.” (Reuters, 3/2; Times of Israel, 3/2)
  • Kerry: “Iran needs to answer those questions, and Iran needs to give confidence to the world.” (New York Times, 3/2)

• Kerry, Zarif, US Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and Atomic Energy Organization of Iran chief Ali Akbar Salehi met on Monday in Switzerland. Iranian negotiators Abbas Araqchi and Majid Takht Ravanchi met separately with lead US negotiator Wendy Sherman and European Union negotiator Helga Schmid. (AFP, 3/2)

• AIPAC leaders publicly broke with Obama administration over Congress’s role in nuclear negotiations. AIPAC executive director: “Congress’s role doesn’t end when there is a deal. Congress must review this deal.” (Wall Street Journal, 3/1)

• Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in speech that “talks are the best way” to resolve nuclear standoff and said that negotiators “seek to take away the tool of sanctions from the enemy through negotiations because sanctions are unjust, cruel and in contravention of human rights.” (Tehran Times, 2/27)
  • Rouhani spokesman said that “we are bound to conclude the negotiations by March 31” and noted this includes “not just at the level of general agreement but also on the specifics.”  (Al-Monitor, 2/26)

• National Council of Resistance of Iran accused Iranian government of operating secret centrifuge research and development site near Tehran called Lavizan-3. (AFP, 2/24; Washington Post, 2/25; NCRI, 2/24)

• New EU foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini said sides “are getting close” to nuclear deal. (Wall Street Journal, 2/26)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Majles approved the removal of $4.8 billion from National Development Fund – Iran’s sovereign wealth fund – to develop oil and gas fields. (Reuters, 2/24)

• EU agreed to continue sanctioning National Iranian Tanker Company, after EU court ruled that the company should be removed from sanctions blacklist. Zarif said EU’s decision is “against logic.” (Reuters, 2/12; Tehran Times, 2/20)

• Asian imports of Iranian oil dipped below 1 million barrels per day and fell 22 percent compared to last year. (Reuters, 2/27)

• German exports to Iran increased 30 percent in 2014. (Reuters, 2/24)

• Iranians smuggled $1 billion in US currency into the country to avoid US sanctions. (Reuters, 2/24)

Iranian domestic politics

• A Rouhani adviser said human rights violations in Iran are being perpetrated by “extremist elements which the Islamic Republic should be able to get rid of.” Ali Younessi said that “no one can control them and they act as they wish.” (AFP, 2/26)

• A new left-wing political party held first party congress exactly one year before Iran’s legislative elections in 2016. (AFP, 2/26)

US-Iran relations

• Obama said he would veto bill introduced by Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) that would give Congress up-or-down vote on nuclear agreement. (Reuters, 2/28)
  • Corker on deal’s sunset: “If you’re going to do all of this and then just end up with a 10-year agreement, you just really haven’t accomplished near what people had hoped.” (Wall Street Journal, 2/23)

• Leadership of the House Foreign Affairs Committee drafted a letter to Obama reiterating Congress’s role in nuclear negotiations:  “Should an agreement with Iran be reached, permanent sanctions relief from congressionally-mandated sanctions would require new legislation. In reviewing such an agreement, Congress must be convinced that its terms foreclose any pathway to a bomb, and only then will Congress be able to consider permanent sanctions relief.” (House Foreign Affairs Committee; The Hill, 3/2)

• Senator Robert Menendez (D., N.J.) at AIPAC decried deal under consideration, saying “the goal posts have moved from dismantlement to reconfiguration…from no right-to-enrichment to getting an alarm system.” He said he would not support such a deal. (Office of Senator Menendez, 3/2)

• In Worldwide Threat Assessment, US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper wrote: “We also continue to assess that Iran does not face any insurmountable technical barriers to producing a nuclear weapon, making Iran’s political will the central issue. … We do not know whether Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.” (Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, 2/26)

• Iranian Revolutionary Guard destroyed a replica of an American aircraft carrier as part of war games near the Strait of Hormuz. Spokesperson for US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, said: “It seems they've attempted to destroy the equivalent of a Hollywood movie set.” (Press TV, 2/25; AP, 2/25)

• An Iranian citizen working as a US defense contractor admitted to stealing sensitive technical information about American fighter jets and sending data to Iranian government-controlled universities. Mozaffar Khazaee, 60, faces maximum 20 years in prison. (AP, 2/25)

• Eighty-four percent of Americans view Iran unfavorably, while 11% hold favorable view (lowest of 22 countries asked about). Seventy-seven percent of Americans see Iranian nuclear weapons development as “critical threat” (vs. important or not important) to US vital interests. However, fewer Americans see Iran as America’s greatest enemy (vs. Russia, North Korea and China). (Gallup, 2/27)

Geopolitics and Iran

• Iran sent troops, drones and heavy weapons to aid Iraqi forces and Shia militias fighting ISIL in Tikrit, Iraq. (Wall Street Journal, 3/2)

Israel

• See “Diplomacy and nuclear issue.”
• Isaac “Boujie” Herzog, leader of Zionist Union and Netanyahu’s main challenger, declined to describe nuclear Iran as posing an “existential threat” to Israel and said Netanyahu’s speech to Congress is “a mistake.” He added, “I trust Obama to get a good deal.” (Washington Post, 2/21; AP, 2/24)
  • In New York Times op-ed, Herzog said that Netanyahu’s speech to Congress is a “major mistake” but explained that his disagreement with Netanyahu is tactical, not strategic. “However deeply I disagree with Mr. Netanyahu on many issues — the peace process, settlement policy, social justice issues and his coming speech to Congress — on one thing there is no daylight between us: Israel’s security.” (New York Times, 2/27)
    • “Especially on the Iranian nuclear threat, Israelis are one. We know that the theocracy in Tehran combines hegemonic and nuclear ambitions that pose a strategic danger to our small nation.”

• In Congressional testimony, Kerry criticized concerns of Netanyahu and others: “Anybody running around right now, jumping in to say, ‘Well, we don’t like the deal,’ or this or that, doesn’t know what the deal is…There is no deal yet. And I caution people to wait and see what these negotiations produce.” (New York Times, 2/25; Reuters, 2/24)
  • Kerry: “I don’t know anybody who looks at the interim agreement and doesn’t say, ‘Wow, this has really worked’ — including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would like to see it extended, having opposed it vehemently in the beginning, calling it the deal of the century for Iran.”

• Rice said Netanyahu’s speech is “destructive” to US-Israel relationship. “What has happened over the last several weeks — by virtue of the invitation that was issued by the speaker and the acceptance of it by Prime Minister Netanyahu two weeks in advance of his election — is that on both sides, there has now been injected a degree of partisanship.” (Politico, 2/25; Washington Post, 2/25; AP, 2/25)

• Senior AIPAC official said Netanyahu’s speech “is the lowest point we have ever reached.” Lobby group was not involved in discussions about Netanyahu’s address. (Al-Monitor, 2/26)

• Consensus among Israeli political leaders about Iran was underscored in recent electoral debate. During two hour debate regarding foreign and domestic politics, Iran was not discussed. (Bloomberg, 3/2)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments. 

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.