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Belfer Iran Brief – Senate Republicans write open letter to Iranian leadership, negotiations resume, and other news

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Highlights

  • Forty-seven Republican senators wrote to Iran’s leadership that they “will consider any agreement regarding your nuclear-weapons program that is not approved by the Congress as nothing more than an executive agreement between President Obama and Ayatollah Khamenei.”
     
  • The final round of negotiations before the March 24 deadline is scheduled for March 15-20 in Lausanne, Switzerland.
  • The Assembly of Experts selected Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, an ultraconservative cleric, as its new leader.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

  • Forty-seven Republican senators wrote to Iran’s leadership that they “will consider any agreement regarding your nuclear-weapons program that is not approved by the Congress as nothing more than an executive agreement between President Obama and Ayatollah Khamenei.” (Bloomberg, 3/8; Reuters, 3/9; Wall Street Journal, 3/9; Open Letter, 3/9; Fars News, 3/9)
    • The letter added: “The next president could revoke such an executive agreement with the stroke of a pen and future Congresses could modify the terms of the agreement at any time.”
    • Obama sharply criticized letter, saying senators were making “common cause with the hardliners in Iran.”
    • Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif: “I wish to enlighten the authors that if the next administration revokes any agreement with ‘the stroke of a pen,’ as they boast, it will have simply committed a blatant violation of international law.”
  • The final round of negotiations before the March 24 deadline is scheduled for March 15-20 in Lausanne, Switzerland. (Guardian, 3/9; ISNA, 3/9) Note: Persian New Year celebration begins night of March 20.
  • Obama said the US offered Iran an “extraordinarily reasonable deal” and said negotiators “have made progress in narrowing the gaps.” (New York Times, 3/8; AFP, 3/8)
    • Obama: “And if we have unprecedented transparency in that system, if we are able to verify that in fact they are not developing weapons systems, then there's a deal to be had, but that's going to require them to accept the kind of verification and constraints on their program that so far, at least, they have not been willing to say yes to.”
  • US Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said goal outlined by Netanyahu is “simply unattainable” and “recipe for no deal.” (The Atlantic, 3/4)
    • Re. Linkage of Iranian foreign policy to deal: “If we get an agreement, our concerns about other Iranian activities in the region will be exactly the same as they are today. We’ll be just as concerned about their support for terrorism, their support for Hizballah, their destabilizing actions in the region as we are today. But the fact is, if you can verifiably ensure that they’re not able to get a nuclear weapon, we will be more secure and the region will be more secure.”
    • French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the agreement under consideration with Iran “is still insufficient, so there is more work to be done,” taking a harder line than other European officials. (Reuters, 3/6; AFP, 3/6)
  • Iran reportedly offered IAEA inspectors access to the Marivan facility, where inspectors believe high explosive experiments took place. (AP, 3/9)
    • IAEA reported that Iran is six months behind in providing details about Possible Military Dimensions, but said Tehran and the agency “exchanged further information” and agreed to meet in mid-April. (Wall Street Journal, 3/10; Reuters, 3/10) 
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Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) exits his Senate office. Senator Cotton organized a letter to the Iranian leadership warning them that any agreement signed by President Obama could be modified by a future congress. (AP Images).

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

  • Iran is having trouble finding buyers for its oil, with 37 million barrels of crude stored on oil tankers (most since August 2013, with exception of September 2014). Iran only exported 1.12m barrels per day in January, compared with 1.35m barrels per day in December 2014. Drop may be connected to India’s decision to decrease its oil purchases before Obama’s state visit to New Delhi. (Financial Times, 3/3)
  • Iranian teachers protested low wages outside the Majles in Tehran, a sign of increased pressure on President Hassan Rouhani. (Financial Times, 3/5)

Iranian domestic politics

  • The Assembly of Experts selected Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, 83, as its new leader. Yazdi, who is considered ultraconservative, was one of five contenders for post. (AFP, 3/10; BBC, 3/10)
  • Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared in public on Sunday, following unverified reports in Arab and Israeli news outlets that he had been hospitalized in critical condition. (AP, 3/8)
  • Iranian hardliners in the Majles and judiciary are taking series to undermine Rouhani domestically as nuclear talks advance: judiciary reiterated ban on media quoting, picturing or even printing name of former president Mohammed Khatami; judiciary expected to find son of former president Akbar Rafsanjani guilty of corruption; and some public concerts were banned. (Financial Times, 3/6)
  • Rouhani traveled to the holy city of Qom to ask the clergy’s support for nuclear negotiations. Religious leaders “demanded special attention to economy, healthcare, social welfare, and employment in particular.” (Reuters, 2/25; Tehran Times, 2/27)                                                

US-Iran relations

  • Seventy-one percent of American voters said they do not think negotiations with Iran will ultimately “make a difference” in Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons, according to new poll. Twenty-four percent said talks would “make a difference.” (Wall Street Journal, 3/9)

Geopolitics and Iran

  • Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal told US Secretary of State John Kerry that “Iran is taking over Iraq” and said battle for Tikrit is “prime example of what we are worried about.” (Al Arabiya, 3/5; Wall Street Journal, 3/5)
  • Iran began multiple weekly flights to Yemen, with first flight bringing medical supplies to reinforce Iran-backed Houthi rebels, which seized control of Sanaa. Iranian intelligence operatives also rescued kidnapped Iranian diplomat in Yemen. (BBC News, 3/5; Reuters, 3/5; AP, 3/1)      

Israel

  • Herzi Halevy, chief of Israeli Military Intelligence, is slated to visit Washington this week to discuss security cooperation with US officials. (Reuters, 3/8)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

  • No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

  • No significant claims.