Can China Back Down? Crisis De-escalation in the Shadow of Popular Opposition

Summary

Would popular opinion prevent China’s leaders from backing down in an international crisis? Responses to a recent survey experiment presenting a hypothetical conflict between China and Japan suggest that leaders might defuse the public’s bellicosity by threatening economic sanctions against Japan; invoking China’s peaceful identity; accepting United Nations mediation; or emphasizing the economic costs of war. By contrast, U.S. military threats may backfire, making the Chinese public more hostile and preventing de-escalation of a crisis.