Neither side can say where destiny will carry the U.S.-China relationship in the decades ahead. China’s future “intentions” are not a secret they keep from us, but a mystery that only the future will reveal. In that circumstance, the U.S. has no choice but to have a two-pronged strategy towards China: one prong of engagement to encourage China to be a “responsible stakeholder” and another prong of hedging against the prospect of a downturn in relations.
But how to hedge responsibly? How much should the Pentagon spend on a hypothesized threat from China? And how can hedging be done prudently, without creating a self-fulfilling prophesy where treating China as an enemy contributes to making them an enemy?
Please see the pdf below for the full text of this document:
Carter, Ash and Dr. William J. Perry. “China's Rise in American Military Strategy.” Preventive Defense Project, Belfer Center, October 16, 2006