Grasping the Technological Peace: The Offense-Defense Balance and International Security

Abstract

Keir Lieber of the Brookings Institution critically assesses the offense-defense theory to determine how technology, in particular, has shaped the relative ease of offense and defense and the probability of war. Lieber examines four "watershed" technological developments since 1850—the emergence of railroads, the artillery and small arms revolution, the innovation of the tank, and the nuclear revolution—to challenge the conventional wisdom that some innovations favor offense, whereas others favor defense. Lieber concludes that "although technology can occasionally favor offense or defense, perceptions of a technological balance have little effect on the likelihood of war."