International Security

Volume 41, No. 4 – International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. IS was ranked first in impact factor for 2014 among 85 journals of international relations in the annual “Journal Citation Reports”® released by Thomson Reuters. International Security’s 2014 Impact Factor is the highest of any international relations journals.

The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence

Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press

Nuclear deterrence has long depended on nuclear arsenals’ ability to survive an adversary’s first strike. Technological advances, however, are undermining deterrence by eroding arsenals’ survivability. Thus, the United States should enhance its counterforce capabilities and avoid reducing its nuclear forces.

Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States

Caitlin Talmadge

Would China escalate to nuclear use in a conventional war with the United States? It might if it believed that U.S. conventional attacks threatened the survivability of Chinese nuclear forces or that a U.S. counterforce attack was imminent. The United States will face difficult trade-offs in managing escalation risks.

Bullets for Ballots: Electoral Participation Provisions and Enduring Peace after Civil Conflict

Aila M. Matanock

Which peace agreements are most likely to prevent civil conflicts from recurring? Agreements mandating that both rebels and government participate in elections have a greater chance of succeeding, because such elections attract monitoring by international organizations that can enforce agreements.

The Illusion of International Prestige

Jonathan Mercer

The conventional wisdom that prestige enhances states’ authority is wrong. Policymakers rely on their feelings about their state to evaluate its prestige rather than analyzing other states’ views, and they discount other states’ prestige. States should thus avoid costly pursuits of prestige.

Ethnic Cleansing and Its Alternatives in Wartime: A Comparison of the Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires

H. Zeynep Bulutgil

When do states carry out mass violence against minority ethnic groups collaborating with adversaries during wartime? Comparing the policies of the Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires during World War I shows that states with influential political organizations reflecting non-ethnic identities are less likely to pursue mass killings.