Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security
Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability
Summary
Many strategists argue that to deter a nuclear attack, states must be certain of their ability to retaliate after a nuclear first strike. China's nuclear posture of uncertain retaliation suggests an alternative logic. A simplified nuclear exchange model developed to evaluate China's nuclear retaliatory capabilities against the Soviet Union in 1984 and the United States in 2000 and 2010 shows that China's nuclear retaliatory capability has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low.
Want to Read More?
The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.
For more information on this publication:
Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation:
Wu Riqiang, "Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability," International Security, Vol. 44, No. 4 (Spring 2020), pp. 84-118.
- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Analysis & Opinions
- Foreign Policy
Looking Ahead to 2023 by Looking Back
Video
- Foreign Policy
Stephen Walt on the Underweighted Risks of 2023
Analysis & Opinions
- The National Interest
How to Know if Putin Is Going to Nuke Ukraine
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Analysis & Opinions
- The New York Times
How ChatGPT Hijacks Democracy
Journal Article
- Research Policy
The Relationship Between Science and Technology
Paper
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Ideal Qualities of a Successful Diplomat
Summary
Many strategists argue that to deter a nuclear attack, states must be certain of their ability to retaliate after a nuclear first strike. China's nuclear posture of uncertain retaliation suggests an alternative logic. A simplified nuclear exchange model developed to evaluate China's nuclear retaliatory capabilities against the Soviet Union in 1984 and the United States in 2000 and 2010 shows that China's nuclear retaliatory capability has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low.
Want to Read More?
The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.Wu Riqiang, "Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability," International Security, Vol. 44, No. 4 (Spring 2020), pp. 84-118.
- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Policy
Looking Ahead to 2023 by Looking Back
Video - Foreign Policy
Stephen Walt on the Underweighted Risks of 2023
Analysis & Opinions - The National Interest
How to Know if Putin Is Going to Nuke Ukraine
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Analysis & Opinions - The New York Times
How ChatGPT Hijacks Democracy
Journal Article - Research Policy
The Relationship Between Science and Technology
Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Ideal Qualities of a Successful Diplomat