Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security
Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability
Summary
Many strategists argue that to deter a nuclear attack, states must be certain of their ability to retaliate after a nuclear first strike. China's nuclear posture of uncertain retaliation suggests an alternative logic. A simplified nuclear exchange model developed to evaluate China's nuclear retaliatory capabilities against the Soviet Union in 1984 and the United States in 2000 and 2010 shows that China's nuclear retaliatory capability has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low.
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The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.
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For Academic Citation:
Wu Riqiang, "Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability," International Security, Vol. 44, No. 4 (Spring 2020), pp. 84-118.
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Many strategists argue that to deter a nuclear attack, states must be certain of their ability to retaliate after a nuclear first strike. China's nuclear posture of uncertain retaliation suggests an alternative logic. A simplified nuclear exchange model developed to evaluate China's nuclear retaliatory capabilities against the Soviet Union in 1984 and the United States in 2000 and 2010 shows that China's nuclear retaliatory capability has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low.
Want to Read More?
The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.Wu Riqiang, "Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability," International Security, Vol. 44, No. 4 (Spring 2020), pp. 84-118.
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