Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security
Assessing China-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation
Summary
The risk of a major China-U.S. conventional war inadvertently escalating to a nuclear level is extremely low. Detailed analysis of three potential mechanisms of China-U.S. inadvertent escalation—use-it-or-lose-it, unauthorized/accidental, and damage limitation—situated within both the survivability of China’s nuclear forces and China’s nuclear command, control, and communication (NC3) system supports this conclusion. To keep the risk of inadvertent escalation low, both sides must take appropriate precautions and exercise self-restraint in their planning and operations.
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The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.
For more information on this publication:
Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation:
Wu Riqiang, "Assessing China-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation," International Security, Vol. 46, No. 3 (Winter 2021/22), pp. 128–162, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00428.
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Summary
The risk of a major China-U.S. conventional war inadvertently escalating to a nuclear level is extremely low. Detailed analysis of three potential mechanisms of China-U.S. inadvertent escalation—use-it-or-lose-it, unauthorized/accidental, and damage limitation—situated within both the survivability of China’s nuclear forces and China’s nuclear command, control, and communication (NC3) system supports this conclusion. To keep the risk of inadvertent escalation low, both sides must take appropriate precautions and exercise self-restraint in their planning and operations.
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