Assessing China-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation

Summary

The risk of a major China-U.S. conventional war inadvertently escalating to a nuclear level is extremely low. Detailed analysis of three potential mechanisms of China-U.S. inadvertent escalation—use-it-or-lose-it, unauthorized/accidental, and damage limitation—situated within both the survivability of China’s nuclear forces and China’s nuclear command, control, and communication (NC3) system supports this conclusion. To keep the risk of inadvertent escalation low, both sides must take appropriate precautions and exercise self-restraint in their planning and operations.