Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Nuclear Terrorism

An attack on one of the great cities of the world is almost inevitable. But with better detection technologies, a new international alliance could still prevent catastrophe.

On October 11, 2001, the CIA advised President George W. Bush of a report that al-Qaeda terrorists were in New York City with a 10-kiloton nuclear bomb. While the report turned out to be false, the government had to take it seriously. Belfer Center Director Graham Allison argues that "given current policies and practices, a nuclear terrorist attack that devastates one of the great cities of the world is inevitable. In my judgment, if governments do no more and no less than they are doing today, the odds of such an event within a decade are more than 50 percent." Allison says, however, that the likelihood of a successful nuclear terrorist attack can be reduced to "nearly zero" if the government takes certain "feasible, affordable measures."

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