President Obama's Nuclear Summit: Q&A with Professor Graham Allison

1. WHY?: With all the balls that President Obama is currently trying to juggle, why invite 46 heads of state to Washington?

Despite many differences, on one issue there is 100% agreement between Presidents Obama and Bush. When asked: "What is the single most serious threat to Americans' national security today," both agree: Nuclear Terrorism.

Psychologically, who can imagine terrorists exploding a nuclear bomb devastating the heart of New York or Moscow or Mumbai? Analytically, there is only one difference between the 9/11 attack that killed 3,000 in New York, or the 11/26 attack that killed nearly 200 in Mumbai, and a nuclear 9/11 or Mumbai that could extinguish 300,000 lives. That singular difference is terrorists getting a nuclear bomb.

2. OBJECTIVE: What is the objective of the Nuclear Security Summit? What do the leaders hope to accomplish?

The stated objectives for the world's first Nuclear Security Summit in one sentence are: (1) to raise the consciousness of leaders whose governments' current actions are increasing or reducing the likelihood of terrorists getting a nuclear bomb, and (2) to create an action-forcing process to motivate leaders to take specific actions in preparation for the Summit or to commit to take actions by specified dates in the near future. 

3. CONFUSION: Why is there so much confusion about this event?

This has never been done before. This is the world's first event focusing specifically on this threat.

"Nuclear" is a symbolic word that triggers many more familiar issues: nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation and Iran, nuclear arms control agreements like the New START agreement that will be signed in Prague this week, or nuclear power plants. Each of these is important. None of these is the focus of this Summit.

The big idea that this Summit will focus on like a laser beam is that the leaders assembled have the power to successfully prevent nuclear terrorism. They can prevent the only terrorist attack that would kill hundreds of thousands of individuals in a single blow. Indeed, they can prevent nuclear terrorism by doing just one thing: denying terrorists the means to achieve their deadliest ambitions.

Imagine that all nuclear weapons and all nuclear weapons-usable materials were locked up as good as gold in Fort Knox or treasures in the Kremlin Armory. We would have reduced the likelihood of a nuclear terrorist attack to nearly zero.

4. TAKEAWAYS: What should leaders take away from this event?

Vivid, visceral appreciation that nuclear terrorism threatens not just the U.S. or Russia but every great city in the civilized world. Since 9/11, global terrorists have killed double- and triple-digit numbers of individuals in Bali (2002), Madrid (2004), and London (2005).

Commitment to lock down all nuclear weapons and materials to a "gold standard" -- beyond the reach of thieves or terrorists -- and to do so on the fastest, technically-feasible timetable. President Obama hopes that the leaders who come will join him in his commitment to achieve this goal before the end of 2012.

5. FOR EXAMPLE: How can these abstract ambitions be made more concrete? What are examples of specific actions that have been taken or will be taken that make it less likely we will suffer a nuclear 9/11?

Looking back at recent history:

• In 1993, 20 bombs-worth of HEU was discovered in newly-independent Kazakhstan. Both Iran and Iraq had opened import-export businesses near this material and were shopping. In "Operation Sapphire," the U.S. extracted this material, which is now safely stored in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
• In 2002, three nuclear bombs-worth of HEU was removed from Vincas, a suburb of Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in a joint U.S.-Russian cooperative threat reduction initiative. That material had remained under the authority of Serbian war criminal Slobodan Milosevic before, during, and for three years after a U.S./NATO air bombing campaign compelled Milosevic to retreat from Kosovo.

For additional examples, see the Belfer Center website.

In preparing to come to this Summit, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus and others have already taken specific actions to secure hundreds of potential nuclear weapons that, in the hands of terrorists, could destroy one of the great cities of the world.

At this Summit, many additional leaders are expected to make unambiguous commitments to take specific, observable actions by dates certain that will secure thousands of additional nuclear weapons equivalents.

6. SCORING: How should objective observers score this event? Beneath the rhetoric, what are the bottom lines?

Specific actions states have taken in preparation for coming to Washington that make citizens safer from the threat terrorists explode a nuclear bomb.

Unambiguous commitments leaders make to take specific, observable actions by dates certain that will secure additional thousands of nuclear weapons and equivalents.

For additional Q&As, see the Belfer Center website.