Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security
The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship
Summary
Conventional wisdom sees nuclear brinkmanship and Thomas Schelling’s pathbreaking “threat that leaves something to chance” as a solution to the problem of agency in coercion. If leaders cannot credibly threaten to start a nuclear war, perhaps they can at least introduce uncertainty by signaling that the decision is out of their hands. But human emotions can introduce chance into bargaining in ways that contradict the expectations of the rational cost-benefit assumptions that undergird deterrence theory.
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For Academic Citation:
Reid B. C. Pauly and Rose McDermott, "The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship," International Security 47, no. 3 (Winter 2022/23): 9–51, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00451.
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Summary
Conventional wisdom sees nuclear brinkmanship and Thomas Schelling’s pathbreaking “threat that leaves something to chance” as a solution to the problem of agency in coercion. If leaders cannot credibly threaten to start a nuclear war, perhaps they can at least introduce uncertainty by signaling that the decision is out of their hands. But human emotions can introduce chance into bargaining in ways that contradict the expectations of the rational cost-benefit assumptions that undergird deterrence theory.
Reid B. C. Pauly and Rose McDermott, "The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship," International Security 47, no. 3 (Winter 2022/23): 9–51, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00451.
- Recommended
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Journal Article - International Theory
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Analysis & Opinions - Arctic Yearbook
The Return of the Strategic Arctic
Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Policy
What Putin Got Right
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Paper
India's Foreign Policy
Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate
What Caused the Ukraine War?
Analysis & Opinions - New Straits Times
Gorbachev and the End of the Cold War