Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity

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Published: Spring 2023

Women who have been internally displaced selling charcoal on a market in Al Fashir, capital of the Sudanese state of North Dafur, February 18, 2015.

Summary

How do climate disasters shape internal conflicts? Conflict escalates when the disaster induces shifts in relative power that enable one side to increase its military efforts. But when one actor is weakened by the disaster and the other lacks the capability to exploit its weakness, conflict intensity declines. Further, only countries highly vulnerable to disasters experience changes in the dynamics of their civil wars.

Recommended citation

Tobias Ide, "Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity," International Security 47, no. 4 (Spring 2023): 50–78, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00459.

Civil Wars Conflict & Conflict Resolution Environment & Climate Change International Relations International Security & Defense International Security Program Intrastate Conflict

Recommended citation

Tobias Ide, "Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity," International Security 47, no. 4 (Spring 2023): 50–78, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00459.

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