Journal Article - International Security

Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity

    Author:
  • Tobias Ide
| Spring 2023

Summary

How do climate disasters shape internal conflicts? Conflict escalates when the disaster induces shifts in relative power that enable one side to increase its military efforts. But when one actor is weakened by the disaster and the other lacks the capability to exploit its weakness, conflict intensity declines. Further, only countries highly vulnerable to disasters experience changes in the dynamics of their civil wars.

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For more information on this publication: Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation:

Tobias Ide, "Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity," International Security 47, no. 4 (Spring 2023): 50–78, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00459.

The Author

Tobias Ide

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