Risk of Rapid Re-opening

This interview by Associated Press is the basis of quotes in a story today: “Risk of reopening US economy too fast: A W-shaped recovery.

AP: To what extent is the push to reopen the economy making a W-shaped recovery more likely?

JF: I believe that the push to reopen the economy is making a W-shaped recovery very much more likely.

AP: What should we be doing to produce the best economic outcome?

JF: Widespread reopening should wait for certain conditions to be met.  The conditions include:

a sustained decline in mortality rates (not just the attainment of a peak);

the easy availability of frequent testing (in reality, not just as a White House claim);

and perhaps ultimately the discovery and testing of a vaccine and/or treatment (which will take time).

AP: At this point what type of recovery do you see as most likely?

JF: Unfortunately, I would guess that a W-shaped pattern is the most likely, as premature withdrawal of government measures leads to relapses in health of the population and health of the economy.