'Soft Talk' Across the Taiwan Strait

THE LEGISLATIVE election in Taiwan last month was a setback for the proindependence element on the island and a welcome relief for relations between Taiwan and mainland China.

The opposition coalition's win demonstrates that the Taiwanese people generally favor maintaining the status quo in the cross-Strait relations. But that status quo has lately been rocked more and more, with veiled and not-so-veiled threats across the Taiwan Strait unnecessarily roiling the waters. Both sides would benefit from wielding fewer threats and appealing more to their shared interests.

In the two months before the recent election, Chen Shui-bian antagonized the voters he was trying to woo with his radical pro-independence campaign, which went so far as to openly call the mainland an "enemy." The threat of a strike against Shanghai from Taiwan — though ridiculed by President Bush as "a mosquito attacks the elephant" — was regarded by Beijing as a "belligerent provocation."

After President Hu Jintao told President Bush at the Chile APEC meeting that Taiwan independence would ruin the peace in the Strait, it appears important that saber rattling across the Strait must be reduced.

Washington, which is the number one arms supplier to Taiwan, may find that helping the island become the second largest developing world recipient of arms (1996–2003) has not made Chen more controllable. Instead, Chen has constantly upset Washington through attempts to jeopardize the status quo. Washington wisely helped head off the testy spiral when, just before the legislative election, it opposed a proposed name change from "Republic of China" to "Taiwan." This move, while subtle, signaled the citizens of Taiwan not to follow Chen's independence dash.

With fewer threats in the air, there would be more room for soft power, defined by Harvard professor Joseph Nye as the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payment. In addition to reducing chances of a confrontation by fueling Taiwan's popular politics instead of its jets, Washington can support the positive engagement across the Strait by encouraging Beijing's emerging soft power in Taiwan.

The economic magnet of China's mainland, which attracts people in Taiwan, has been a partial success in lubricating relations. The mainland has become the largest trade partner of Taiwan, which has received 80 percent of its overall trade surplus from the mainland for the past 20 years. Taiwan's investment in the mainland accounts for 40 percent of the island's outward investment. More than 300,000 Taiwanese now live in Shanghai. This economic relationship remains unbalanced, however.

Due to restrictions by Taiwan, the flow of mainland businessmen to Taiwan was only 13,284 in 2003. Some Taiwanese businessmen made money in the mainland but supported Taiwan independence back home. To deepen the economic relationship, Beijing must use its soft power to shape the political preference of people in Taiwan.

The electoral setback for Chen's independence policy is an opening for Beijing. A postelection survey in Taiwan showed that 50 percent of respondents opposed Chen's move to alter the name and enact a new constitution. There is now a chance for Beijing to increase its policy appeal to the Taiwanese people through ethnic and cultural synergy and common desire for stability and development. Otherwise, war could remain the lonely solution.

Beijing's effort to "pin hope on the people in Taiwan" is on the right track. Constantly spanking Chen, who is determined to seek independence, will not change him, but risks alienating the Taiwanese people. More soft talk with the people in Taiwan, by contrast, could bend Chen to change track. In addition, there have been more than 200,000 cross-Strait marriages since 1993, which means almost one percent of the Taiwan population have spouses from mainland China. The more economic, cultural, and social ties with people in Taiwan, the more popular the mainland is likely to be.

Beijing's selection as host of the 2008 Olympic Games affords it another source of soft power to appeal to the Taiwanese. Some Taiwanese regard the Beijing Games as an honor for the whole Chinese people, and they hope the Olympic torch can pass through Taiwan. Many more are interested in business opportunities there.

On Taiwan's side, Chen should heed the views of his people and make peace with the mainland. Having resigned as the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party on Nov. 14 for losing the legislative election, Chen should reflect on his independence approach after this political realignment in Taiwan.

How Condoleezza Rice charts her course on Taiwan remains to be seen. Also, how the new Chinese leadership handles cross-Strait relations will speak volumes about what is meant by Beijing's desire to achieve a "peaceful rise" onto the international stage.

If soft power does not become the preferred tool in managing the mainland-Taiwan-US triangle, the Taiwan issue could easily become the Waterloo in China-US relations, in the rise of China, and in the welfare of Taiwan itself.

Anne Wu, a former official in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is a fellow at the Belfer Center of Science and International Affairs of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.