International Security

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Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan

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A type 094A Jin-class nuclear submarine Long March 10 of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy participates in a naval parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of China's PLA Navy in the sea near Qingdao in eastern China's Shandong province, April 23, 2019.
A type 094A Jin-class nuclear submarine Long March 10 of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy participates in a naval parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of China's PLA Navy in the sea near Qingdao in eastern China's Shandong province, April 23, 2019.

Summary

An analysis of Taiwan’s military value concludes that its reunification with China would improve Chinese submarine warfare and ocean surveillance capabilities, tipping the military balance in China’s favor. During wartime, basing Chinese submarine warfare assets on Taiwan would increase the vulnerability of U.S. surface forces to attack, reduce the attrition rate of Chinese submarines, and likely increase the number of submarine attack opportunities against U.S. surface combatants. These findings have important implications for U.S. operational planning, policy, and grand strategy.

Recommended citation

Brendan Rittenhouse Green and Caitlin Talmadge, "Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan," International Security, Vol. 47, No. 1 (Summer 2022), pp. 7–45, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00437.

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