Event Summary
As the nations of the world met in Buenos Aires in November to discuss the problem of climate change, it was becoming abundantly clear that any global solution will have to involve both the developed and developing nations. Designing an agreement that is satisfactory to all the major parties has proved to be a daunting task. The developing countries are reluctant to forego economic growth to solve a problem that they believe was produced by the rich developed countries. The developed nations worry that their carbon reductions will be offset by additional emission elsewhere, thus they will spend billions of dollars for no net reductions in the threat of climate change. How to design an international protocol that is satisfactory to all the nations has become one of the most perplexing international problems facing the world community.
Scholars at the Belfer Center''s Environment and Natural Resources (ENR), and Science and Technology Policy (STP) Programs have initiated a series of studies to identify opportunities for the developed and developing countries to work together. These efforts can be divided into three major initiatives:
Research and Development (R&D)
Unless the developing world can use a new menu of technologies that will enable them to meet their economic and social goals while lowering their greenhouse gas emissions, it is unlikely that any significant environmental progress will be made. Countries need to develop a cooperative R&D effort to design, develop and disseminate energy alternatives for the next generation. Building on the recommendations of the study led by STPP Director John Holdren for the President''s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), Holdren has put together a team of scholars to assess the R&D programs in the U.S., Europe, and Japan and how they might complement and link with efforts in China, Russia and India. This study will be closely tied to a national study that he will chair for President Clinton on the same topic.
Win-Win Opportunities
There has been much discussion of programs by which developed countries might invest in carbon reductions in developing countries. However most efforts have been small and relatively ineffective. What if the interests of the emerging economy could be met while simultaneously reducing carbon? Scholars in the ENR program have been working to identify win-win opportunities in Brazil, India and China. Simultaneously, Faculty Affiliate Professor Abram Chayes has developed a specific program by which U.S. investors could invest in carbon reductions in China. Professor Chayes focused on upgrading Chinese electric utility plants by use of cleaning technologies that would be paid for by foreign investors who would be given credit for the carbon reduced. China, in turn, would streamline its bureaucratic approval process for such investments. Chayes'' paper was presented in China in March and is now being actively discussed in both countries. (See page 6)
Designing Implementation Strategies
Implementing an international, or even a multilateral, agreement to reduce greenhouse gases will require both the capability to insure compliance with this agreement and the capacity for parties in different countries to trade reduction obligations. For example, if it is cheap for Polish steel companies to reduce their carbon emissions below their agreed upon target, they should have an ability to sell the extra reductions to U.S. steel producers who might find it very expensive to meet their carbon reduction targets. Professor Robert Stavins and Senior Associate Robert Hahn will release a report on the opportunities and obstacles that policy makers will have to overcome in developing an international carbon trading scheme. This report will complement Henry Lee''s recent paper that looks at the feasibility of a domestic trading program.
Finally, ENRP and STPP scholars will build on earlier work by Ted Parson and Ronald Mitchell to design effective monitoring and enforcement programs for international environmental agreements. Much of the work on this subset in 1999 will focus on Russia and how a workable compliance scheme might be established in that country.