"Wars without Gun Smoke": Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft

Abstract

Conflict is thought to be highly likely during a power transition. The spread of global supply chains has provided new economic weapons for competing great powers, but the businesses that constitute global supply chains can make it harder or easier for them to use those tools. High-value businesses within the dominant power tend to oppose their state’s use of economic statecraft because of its costs to them, whereas low-value businesses within the rising power tend to cooperate with their state because it benefits them.