When Does Putin’s Russia March Off to War?

More than two decades after Vladimir Putin’s dramatic ascent to presidential power in December 1999, it is worth asking when this strongman—who has already ruled the Russian Federation longer than any other since Josef Stalin—orders military interventions in other countries and when he does not—and why. Investigating what factors shape the 69-year-old Russian leader’s decisions to intervene militarily abroad is necessary: Russia’s unilateral interventions in Europe can have a debilitating effect on the continent’s system of collective security. The ongoing Ukraine intervention has demonstrated this point. Moreover, as the case of Ukraine has shown, such interventions can lead to significant deterioration in relations between Russia on one side and the United States and its allies on the other. The hostility in these relations, in turn, significantly increased the probability that an incident involving Russian and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces could escalate into a conventional conflict and then into a nuclear exchange. Either scenario would have devastating consequences not only for the continent but for the entire world.

As multiple scholars have noted, the chances of such a worst-case scenario materializing have grown in the past several years.¹ Understanding when, where, and under what conditions Putin—who is the ultimate decisionmaker when it comes to Russia’s foreign and defense policies—moves ahead with a military operation is of vital importance for policymakers dealing with this country, especially to avoid a potentially fatal miscalculation. This article seeks to advance that understanding by looking at the past 21 full years of Putin’s rule (from 2000 to 2020) to identify factors that shaped the outcomes of Putin’s decisions on whether to intervene militarily in other countries, including three instances when Putin chose to intervene and four instances when he chose not to do so.

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