AI-Powered Diplomacy

Executive Summary

Artificial intelligence has moved to the center of diplomatic work. It drafts speeches, analyzes raw videos of UN Security Council debates, triages consular emails, detects early signs of conflict, and can simulate negotiation scenarios. Over the next five years, these capabilities will expand, compressing reaction times and decreasing the influence of any foreign service that lags behind. In the short term, AI will likely not replace the human core of diplomacy, but will remain exclusively a powerful tool in the hands of diplomats. The State Department must therefore act on three fronts. First, it should build a secure, department-wide AI ecosystem that unites analytics, negotiation modeling, and predictive dashboards under strict ethical and security standards. Second, it must develop its workforce: every officer should receive regular AI training, while career promotion should depend on AI literacy and the successful use of AI instruments. Third, the State Department should lead the process of setting domestic norms that mandate watermarks on synthetic content and pursuing an international code of conduct abroad.