Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Surprise

What are the limitations of artificial intelligence in strategic decision-making and in preventing strategic surprise? Given collection challenges, corrupted data, legal limitations, classification barriers, and spoofing by adversarial AI systems, adequate data to avoid surprise is often unavailable. Nor will AI eliminate the dangers of misapprehending information or the politicization of intelligence. AI will enhance strategic planning and improve short-term political forecasting, but it cannot be relied on for judgment, and it will not eliminate strategic surprises.