The Caucasus: Peace Negotiations and The Global Energy Transition

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has set in motion new security and power dynamics across the wider Black Sea region. The conflict, which continues to overwhelmingly preoccupy the Kremlin created a power vacuum in the South Caucasus and, in the aftermath of the recent series of wars over Karabakh, opened up space for peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These negotiations may not only lead to a normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani ties following three decades of conflict but also open the possibility for reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey, with ample economic, political, and security effects for the entire region.