The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics: Liberal Backsliding and Armed Conflict

The post–Cold War decline in violent conflict has given way to rising instability both within and between states. While many attribute this shift to intensified great power competition, we argue that nationalist geopolitics offer a more accurate explanation. Weakening the liberal international order is undermining the inclusive policies that helped stabilize the post–Cold War peace. Using newly updated global data on ethnic power relations (1946–2023), we document a reversal of the inclusionary trends that began in the early 2010s.