Do Autocrats Need a Foreign Enemy? Evidence from Fortress Russia

Conventional thinking suggests that autocrats need enemies and have incentives to create them. Russia’s Vladimir Putin is often thought to reap domestic legitimacy from belligerence. But Putin wins as much popular support when he is prudent and cooperative as when he is hostile and aggressive. These findings add to evidence that Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion of Ukraine was not a war of domestic political necessity. Even the most aggressive autocrats may still cater to public preferences for moderate foreign policy.